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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,301
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:38am Mar 17, 2011 8:38am
Quoting mags01
I seriously doubt it was intervention. The range of movement was far too small for that.
but it seems it's a good time (in short term) to sell yen.
  • #23,302
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:39am Mar 17, 2011 8:39am
Quoting fosking
Several hundred pips.
thanks......hope it's not but it will come soon...cos i just short yen w/o setting tp...
  • #23,303
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:45am Mar 17, 2011 8:45am
Quoting tkhlam
thanks......hope it's not but it will come soon...cos i just short yen w/o setting tp...
Yeah selling USD/JPY here is extremely risky, even with a tight 20 pip SL it won't get filled. Your broker will fill your SL order several hundred pips at the end of the move (or spike as it usually is).
We may possibly still drift down until it happens as the big boys know there's the liquidity to move it down as everyone goes long.
I think one of the best ways to play it is to be flat until any intervention has happened then short.
  • #23,304
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:52am Mar 17, 2011 8:52am
Quoting fosking
Yeah selling USD/JPY here is extremely risky, even with a tight 20 pip SL it won't get filled. Your broker will fill your SL order several hundred pips at the end of the move (or spike as it usually is).
We may possibly still drift down until it happens as the big boys know there's the liquidity to move it down as everyone goes long.
I think one of the best ways to play it is to be flat until any intervention has happened then short.
So Intervention, if it occurs, we looking at another huge drop like yesterday???

it's been ranging all day, soma gonna happen...
  • #23,305
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:56am Mar 17, 2011 8:56am
Quoting gh0stjpy
So Intervention, if it occurs, we looking at another huge drop like yesterday???

it's been ranging all day, soma gonna happen...
We had the big drop yesterday because we went through the 15yr low, so big stop losses and options were hit. The move was also large due to the lack of liquidity as it was at the most quite time of day. Basically the big boys had a great time.
If/when we have an intervention, price will move up.
  • #23,306
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:58am Mar 17, 2011 8:58am
Pentagon says there would be a concern about conducting military operations inside Libya
GEOPOLITICAL
Source: RTRS
  • #23,307
  • Mar 17, 2011 8:59am Mar 17, 2011 8:59am
Quoting USD-Bear
Stop @ BE
They catched me, stopped @ BE
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #23,308
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:03am Mar 17, 2011 9:03am
Intervention could occur as early as the end of this week, or the beginning of next week.
  • #23,309
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:08am Mar 17, 2011 9:08am
US Mission to UN Security Council says vote on Libya resolution likely at 0330 EDT (1930 GMT)
GEOPOLITICAL
Source: RTRS
  • #23,310
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:10am Mar 17, 2011 9:10am
not much movement till now... lets wait till tmr
  • #23,311
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:15am Mar 17, 2011 9:15am
G7 teleconference on Japan & FX @ 6 pm ET, 10 pm GMT, 7 am Tokyo time (Friday). Load up longs before rollover 5 pm eastern.
  • #23,312
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:16am Mar 17, 2011 9:16am
Quoting gh0stjpy
So Intervention, if it occurs, we looking at another huge drop like yesterday???

it's been ranging all day, soma gonna happen...
No, not at all. Only speaking from the September intervention, it may have dropped 30-50 pips just seconds before the invervention happened, but then (USDJPY) popped 100 pips. It was about 9:10pm NY time when they started. I think it was an eventual 300 pips up in UJ, and 400 or so in GBPJPY. It was a classic charting climb up, sticking to a trend line and basic supp/res - kept on through the NY morning and peaked somewhere around lunchtime.

But, all interventions are different, and what their intent is and how much they plan to hit it with as well as timing are unknown. There are tons of strategies. They have moved 200 pips in 5 minutes, and called it a day. It's all about firepower and strategy.


Quoting fosking
Yeah selling USD/JPY here is extremely risky, even with a tight 20 pip SL it won't get filled. Your broker will fill your SL order several hundred pips at the end of the move (or spike as it usually is).
We may possibly still drift down until it happens as the big boys know there's the liquidity to move it down as everyone goes long.
I think one of the best ways to play it is to be flat until any intervention has happened then short.
Agree, it is silly to short here. We may be up for a Friday intervention. It would not surprise me to see MoF to come out of the gate right at 5pm NY time, the way that the option hunters did so "to them" the day before. Although it was 9:10pm NY time in Sept, and happened to line up with their equity open, it would be silly for them to replicate the same timing and strategy. See my earlier note where Kathy Lien outlines all previous interventions.

But, I would not advise shorting UJ until after intervention has happened. BoJ's timing and length of attack is not known. You are likely to get burned, or come out with nothing. I have had colossal success in going long when they do, usually with buy stops.

Should be an interesting 24hours coming up. The G7 teleconference on Japan & FX is @ 6 pm ET, 10 pm GMT, and 7 am Tokyo time. Even if Japan doesn't get coordinated intervention, they are likely to go it alone.
  • #23,313
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:17am Mar 17, 2011 9:17am
Thinking back, Central Bank intervention didn't cross my mind even once during our two recent earthquakes. In fact, I had my first shower for nearly 3 weeks less than 6 hours before the Japanese earthquake happened. Now that already feels likes a long time ago. (sigh)

My heart really goes out to those caught up in it.
  • #23,314
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:28am Mar 17, 2011 9:28am
USD/JPY longs are certainly looking the better option for now.
On the Yen futures, we broke through support, and have tested the resistance.
Further resistance is found at the descending trend line near the purple area.

Yen Futures M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy10.png Size: 287 KB
  • #23,315
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:36am Mar 17, 2011 9:36am
Quoting fosking
USD/JPY longs are certainly looking the better option for now.
Having said that, the USD is still getting weaker.

USDX M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx4.png Size: 115 KB
  • #23,316
  • Mar 17, 2011 9:43am Mar 17, 2011 9:43am
Quoting Beljevina
No, not at all. Only speaking from the September intervention, it may have dropped 30-50 pips just seconds before the invervention happened, but then (USDJPY) popped 100 pips. It was about 9:10pm NY time when they started. I think it was an eventual 300 pips up in UJ, and 400 or so in GBPJPY. It was a classic charting climb up, sticking to a trend line and basic supp/res - kept on through the NY morning and peaked somewhere around lunchtime.

But, all interventions are different, and what their intent is and how much they plan to hit it with as...
Ok thanks
  • #23,317
  • Mar 17, 2011 10:07am Mar 17, 2011 10:07am
Quoting fosking
USD/JPY longs are certainly looking the better option for now.
On the Yen futures, we broke through support, and have tested the resistance.
Further resistance is found at the descending trend line near the purple area.

Yen Futures M5
Attachment
Totally agree.
  • #23,318
  • Mar 17, 2011 10:08am Mar 17, 2011 10:08am
Quoting fosking
We had the big drop yesterday because we went through the 15yr low, so big stop losses and options were hit. The move was also large due to the lack of liquidity as it was at the most quite time of day. Basically the big boys had a great time.
If/when we have an intervention, price will move up.
so a pending order or jus wait for it to happen suppose??? ah well yesterday got lucky maybe today mo fo market take it back , will be watchin tonight
  • #23,319
  • Mar 17, 2011 10:26am Mar 17, 2011 10:26am
Closed..+25...leave la...good luck all
  • #23,320
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:58pm Mar 17, 2011 12:58pm
is it still good time for short?
I'm short 78.80
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