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Sonic R. System

  • #18,461
  • Mar 16, 2011 3:15pm Mar 16, 2011 3:15pm
Quoting Kelisa
TAH - You mentioned to trade this system during 1am to 4am UK session. Does it mean 1am to 4 am GMT? Thanks
UK = GMT yes
  • #18,462
  • Mar 16, 2011 3:19pm Mar 16, 2011 3:19pm
Look at all xxx/JPY pairs. What a massive drop.

USD/JPY down over 250 pips during the last hour!!
E/J >300pips down
G/J 500pips down

Volume was very low during the free fall.
What is going on?

U/J H4(!) Chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #18,463
  • Mar 16, 2011 3:26pm Mar 16, 2011 3:26pm
it was 1 wild swing nite...
I had a gd sleep...

Sonic
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: shi.gif Size: 70 KB
  • #18,464
  • Mar 16, 2011 3:32pm Mar 16, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting nando_rich
I'm with you in this.
Closed

+67pips...

Perfect sonic trade here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: positive_16-03-2011_eu_1.gif Size: 37 KB
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #18,465
  • Mar 16, 2011 3:35pm Mar 16, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting bennyFX
Look at all xxx/JPY pairs. What a massive drop.

USD/JPY down over 250 pips during the last hour!!
E/J >300pips down
G/J 500pips down

Volume was very low during the free fall.
What is going on?

U/J H4(!) Chart:
I wait TAH don't close his EJ trade early...
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #18,466
  • Edited 5:44pm Mar 16, 2011 5:32pm | Edited 5:44pm
GU:

Late yesterday I saw PA start moving back up well. I placed a SonicR re-entry short order just below previous S possibly turned R (upper magenta line). The order executed shortly after the open today. So, I am now in this short again, per attached. The next support area (lower magenta line) will likely be the next test since the Dragon is still angled down quite well. It looks like the asian session syndicate professional traders right away pumped the price to hit SLs on shorts. And they might have first placed large short orders up there so they would be executed at the top of the pump. The SL is mental because I really do not want such a close SL until after the US session is well underway. Why? You know why, because the London and US PPMs are more than capable of 50-100+ pip spikes to hit SLs just before another nice run down. However, if PA drops below the lower support line and comes back up a bit later to retest it, and if the re-test fails.......then I might actually place a real SL somewhere at BE+.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: # 804.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #18,467
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:10pm Mar 16, 2011 6:10pm
I follow you on this pair, GU. Short .5lot now.
  • #18,468
  • Mar 16, 2011 9:39pm Mar 16, 2011 9:39pm
I am starting to read this fascinating book. I have seen all these tactics but never knew volume reading can give so much insight. I have worked with a commodities trader who used to watch volumes and I always figured that since Forex are high volumes markets almost all year round his theory doesn't work here. However, I will be reading more of volumes from now on.

Now I was going through 4 hour charts of EUR/USD and GBPUSD. If you are already short on GBP/USD be aware of 1.5950-75 area as a lot of stops will be triggered here. Stopping volume came repeatedly here. So it makes me believe that PPMs will test this level and then go long.

I will attach the chart in the next post. Also I think PPMs are so close to 1.42-43 area in EUR/USD that they would want to go there before a move down.
Just some thoughts. Will be interested to know you ideas.
  • #18,469
  • Edited 10:38pm Mar 16, 2011 10:27pm | Edited 10:38pm
EU:

With just less than 2 hours to the London Open, there is convergence of top of range, central pivot, Trend line and PA. If I were to venture a guess, it would be that the current move up might become WAVE leg #2, which could go higher before WAVE leg #3 starts down.

All this is just a bit above a whole number, which is sometimes where consolidation takes place for a later break of the whole number and a move lower. But PA could also go up later instead.

The Tend is now flat, so no clue there. The Dragon is changing up and down, also not giving a clue. The only clue I can see is the "stopping volume" at the last low. This was not really strong volume, so it does not have me thinking of a reversal. Instead, it has me thinking just enough activity was put forth to stop the drop so that the price could be worked back up again for more shorting at higher price levels. And, as we see, the volume on the road back up is quite low. The PPMs are expending as little resources as they can while pumping the price back higher.

Still, all this is very subjective. A confirming clue will be if later PA is spiked with high activity at the attained highs. That would indicate shorting in preparations for a drive down.

As sonic says, we just have to let the market decide, up or down, and trade what we see..... not what we believe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,470
  • Edited Mar 17, 2011 3:04am Mar 16, 2011 10:51pm | Edited Mar 17, 2011 3:04am
Right. makes sense. If price on GBP/USD spikes up and volumes doesnt support it, I will be very comfortable going short for a target of 1.5950. Same is true for EUR/USD.

Quoting traderathome
EU:

With just less than 2 hours to the London Open, there is convergence of top of range, central pivot, Trend line and PA. If I were to venture a guess, it would be that the current move up might become WAVE leg #2, which could go higher before WAVE leg #3 starts down.

All this is just a bit above a whole number, which is sometimes where consolidation takes place for a later break of the whole number and a move lower....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd sonic.gif Size: 163 KB
  • #18,471
  • Mar 16, 2011 10:57pm Mar 16, 2011 10:57pm
Quoting Sumeet Malik
Right. makes sense. If price on GBP/USD spikes up and volumes doesnt support it, I will be very comfortable going short for a target of 1.3950. Same is true for EUR/USD.
I like your clear marking of lower high,.

Very visual...


Sonic
  • #18,472
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:14pm Mar 16, 2011 11:14pm
Quoting bennyFX
Look at all xxx/JPY pairs. What a massive drop.

USD/JPY down over 250 pips during the last hour!!
E/J >300pips down
G/J 500pips down

Volume was very low during the free fall.
What is going on?

U/J H4(!) Chart:
The cause of it is, BOJ is flushing yen into money market..
They pull the price down to load..

The decline of JPY pairs will stop for now..
Unless there are more bad news from reactors..



Sonic
  • #18,473
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:34pm Mar 16, 2011 11:34pm
Quoting traderathome
EU:

With just less than 2 hours to the London Open, there is convergence of top of range, central pivot, Trend line and PA. If I were to venture a guess, it would be that the current move up might become WAVE leg #2, which could go higher before WAVE leg #3 starts down.

All this is just a bit above a whole number, which is sometimes where consolidation takes place for a later break of the whole number and a move lower. But PA could also go up later instead.

The Tend is now flat, so no clue there. The Dragon is changing up and down, also not...
EU:

The volume study shows there was a bit of a spike in volume after the pump, so this might be confirmation sellers are controlling prices right now, moving prices higher for better shorting. And now that they have the price higher, it looks like that is where they are keeping it while they get orders executed. The London sellers might step it up also.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,474
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:23am Mar 17, 2011 12:23am
I shorted this pair earlier. Is the PA going trend north soon?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 17032011 short sonicr.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #18,475
  • Edited 1:34am Mar 17, 2011 1:19am | Edited 1:34am
Quoting traderathome
EU:

The volume study shows there was a bit of a spike in volume after the pump, so this might be confirmation sellers are controlling prices right now, moving prices higher for better shorting. And now that they have the price higher, it looks like that is where they are keeping it while they get orders executed. The London sellers might step it up also.
The PA is trapped in a box...it's a clear range market, very difficult for trading for now.



Regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: box_17-03-2011_eu_1.gif Size: 22 KB
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #18,476
  • Edited 1:54am Mar 17, 2011 1:33am | Edited 1:54am
Quoting Kelisa
I shorted this pair earlier. Is the PA going trend north soon?
I think your entry was a bit late and just against strong support line.


The GU offered two trades in both directions for 60 pips each trade at the moment.

Just my opinion.


Regards.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: _17-03-2011_gu_1.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: long_17-03-2011_gu_1.gif Size: 36 KB
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #18,477
  • Mar 17, 2011 1:59am Mar 17, 2011 1:59am
Quoting sonicdeejay
The cause of it is, BOJ is flushing yen into money market..
They pull the price down to load..

The decline of JPY pairs will stop for now..
Unless there are more bad news from reactors..



Sonic
yesss



I think this too.

but I see no entry at the time - only patience

enigm4x
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #18,478
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:09am Mar 17, 2011 2:09am
After London open, it this the final resistance level its testing b4 a bear..?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 17032011 short sonicr a.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #18,479
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:15am Mar 17, 2011 2:15am
Quoting nando_rich
The PA is trapped in a box...it's a clear range market, very difficult for trading for now.



Regards.
Reversal zone??

Vol is decresing when the PA is going up...

Could this be a sign that buyers have no interest?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: reversal_17-03-2011_eu_1.gif Size: 33 KB
"Being picky only cost your time - not MONEY"...Hans
  • #18,480
  • Mar 17, 2011 2:17am Mar 17, 2011 2:17am
As I had suspected a lot of short GBP/USD stops triggered with the last bar. This is what PPMs are doing repeatedly. Now if we can filter out using volume, this can be an excellent area for short. Also the last candle had less volume.
However, in EUR/USD there could be more upside since the stops there haven't been triggered yet. And GBP/USD being correlated, may be just taking a breath here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd sonic2.gif Size: 159 KB
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