USD/JPY Discussion | Page 1162 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/JPY

Similar Threads

USD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

NZD/JPY Discussion 12 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

EUR/USD Bollinger Band Discussion 3 replies

Suidster's GBP/JPY Discussion 19 replies

Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion
Exit Attachments

USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,221
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:13pm Mar 16, 2011 11:13pm
Quoting FFLaguna
I don't use anything below 15m on JPY, since it fluctuates a lot. Probably this is due to lower volume.

I just went and looked up what pivot points were. No, I don't use them. I read about them and will look into implementing them and see how they're meshing with what we're seeing. Is there a fundamental reason why pivot points match up with reality? They are developed from past data, of course, but they seem arbitrarily derived.

I don't use MT4. I am with FXCM, but I understand they've implemented MT4 support. I guess that is by far the platform...
FXCM has pivots available on their Marketscope platofrm. I just wondered because I have a really good MT4 pivot indi I could post. It works on all timeframes, but it is easier to see on the M15 chart because the pivot updates every day, but leaves yesterdays pivots as they were just for reference.

I don't know the reason why they so often work, I guess it's the same as why fibs work....they work because that is what we are all expecting, so we drive the pa there without really knowing it.....a self fullfilling prophesy I guess. I don't really know though, but I do pay attention to the pivots
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,222
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:27pm Mar 16, 2011 11:27pm
Look at that! I went long at the S1 support, and my stopmove has moved up to the break-even. Let's see if it goes a little higher Liquidating at 79.45.
  • #23,223
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:33pm Mar 16, 2011 11:33pm
i do not understand what is logic
why the yen is getting stronger?
  • #23,224
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:37pm Mar 16, 2011 11:37pm
Quoting lolik2020
i do not understand what is logic
why the yen is getting stronger?
It's going to take a lot of yen to fix what's broken.

Seems like a bass ackwards way to look at it but...
  • #23,225
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:39pm Mar 16, 2011 11:39pm
Quoting lolik2020
i do not understand what is logic
why the yen is getting stronger?
The logic is that Japan typically invests enormous amounts of money in, essentially, foreign currencies. Since the time the earthquake occurred, there have been two factors at play:

1) Japan is selling enormous amounts of USD, weakening the dollar (and strengthening yen, conversely)

2) Japan is switching focus from foreign investment to domestic investment to repair their enormously shattered nation, which strengthens the yen. Strong yen = they can import much more favorably, and with their production capacity down for months to come, they don't need import-favorable exchange rates.

If you want some proof of what we should expect, look at the monthly charts all the way back to the 1995 Kobe earthquake. The same thing happened there... yen got monstrously strong for months afterwards before eventually weakening. I think the 1995 charts are going to be rather prophetic.

Right now, I'm a little worried to trade. The charts are very volatile and BoJ is affecting the market in sudden strokes. Open up the EUR/USD chart to see the difference from USD/JPY...


Edit: I learned all this in the last 48 hours by reading this thread. Thanks, everyone
  • #23,226
  • Mar 16, 2011 11:56pm Mar 16, 2011 11:56pm
Quoting FFLaguna
The logic is that Japan typically invests enormous amounts of money in, essentially, foreign currencies. Since the time the earthquake occurred, there have been two factors at play:

1) Japan is selling enormous amounts of USD, weakening the dollar (and strengthening yen, conversely)

2) Japan is switching focus from foreign investment to domestic investment to repair their enormously shattered nation, which strengthens the yen. Strong yen = they can import much more favorably, and with their production capacity down for months to come, they...
I hope so too. I'm waiting on long u/j..
  • #23,227
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:14am Mar 17, 2011 12:14am
Quoting lolik2020
i do not understand what is logic
why the yen is getting stronger?
Poster:

The USD will fall 20 percent and Japan is in big trouble.The think tank is now talking if this is going to be the perfect time to let the dollar go. They have someone to blame so it seems so this is an open window to let the dollar do a sudden crash.

This will be a disaster greater then the media is allowing out.
  • #23,228
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:16am Mar 17, 2011 12:16am
I agreed with you.

Quoting FFLaguna
The logic is that Japan typically invests enormous amounts of money in, essentially, foreign currencies. Since the time the earthquake occurred, there have been two factors at play:

1) Japan is selling enormous amounts of USD, weakening the dollar (and strengthening yen, conversely)

2) Japan is switching focus from foreign investment to domestic investment to repair their enormously shattered nation, which strengthens the yen. Strong yen = they can import much more favorably, and with their production capacity down for months to come, they don't...
  • #23,229
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:17am Mar 17, 2011 12:17am
1) Japan is selling usd to make up for the loss of yen in short time. the expenses are needed for recovery work. repatriation is also in progress , selling stocks in hand means good for currency
2) what is there to invest in Japan at this moment , i dont think anyone would want to buy up the loss shares in this time at least.
3)what happen this morning that it dropped 400pips ??


Quoting FFLaguna
The logic is that Japan typically invests enormous amounts of money in, essentially, foreign currencies. Since the time the earthquake occurred, there have been two factors at play:

1) Japan is selling enormous amounts of USD, weakening the dollar (and strengthening yen, conversely)

2) Japan is switching focus from foreign investment to domestic investment to repair their enormously shattered nation, which strengthens the yen. Strong yen = they can import much more favorably, and with their production capacity down for months to come, they...
  • #23,230
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:17am Mar 17, 2011 12:17am
Quoting chick3n420
I hope so too. I'm waiting on long u/j..
This is equal or worse than the Kobe earthquake, I think... the electricity deficit alone is gargantuan. Go look at 1995 charts and decide if you should change directions. I did yesterday and lost 33% of my entire account. After I switched directions (and got lucky, admittedly) I now have 200% of everything I've deposited into my account, ever. Might be a good idea to switch and go short, based on how the 1995 events went over a few weeks...

You know, I've always liked that word... "gargantuan"... so rarely have an opportunity to use it in a sentence. If not treated quickly with anti-venom, 10 to 15 milligrams can be.........
  • #23,231
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:20am Mar 17, 2011 12:20am
Quoting tankokjian
2) what is there to invest in Japan at this moment , i dont think anyone would want to buy up the loss shares in this time at least.?
Nuclear energy.
  • #23,232
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:20am Mar 17, 2011 12:20am
Quoting profitt
Poster:

The USD will fall 20 percent and Japan is in big trouble.The think tank is now talking if this is going to be the perfect time to let the dollar go. They have someone to blame so it seems so this is an open window to let the dollar do a sudden crash.

This will be a disaster greater then the media is allowing out.
I wouldn't mind reading up on the source(s) on which your stated as facts tatements are based.
  • #23,233
  • Edited 12:56am Mar 17, 2011 12:27am | Edited 12:56am
Quoting chick3n420
I hope so too. I'm waiting on long u/j..
Might not be a bad time to stick one foot in the pool. Take a conservative entry. Take 1% of your account balance. Then divide that by 100.

For example, let's say your account is 10,000, then (10,000 x .01)/100. In this example that equals 1. $1 per pip or $100 per 100 pips (1 mini-lot or 10,000 units depending on your broker).

If your margin isn't tied up into any other pairs AND you are willing or able to leave a trade open for weeks then this is a good setup. USD/JPY is currently at ~79.00. That means you have every pip covered since it would take 7900 pips to reach zero and your balance is 10,000 (margin should also be safe). Not that we are expecting it to get anywhere near zero, but I'm just pointing out how safe this is.

Take profit is whatever you want. Every +100 pips is 1% account growth. If you're looking for 5% then 500 pips (84.00). You might have to adjust target a little for swap, if any.

Good Luck.

EDIT: This trade setup/strategy is purely mathematical. Not taking anything (like fundamentals or technicals) into account. Trade at your own risk.
  • #23,234
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:34am Mar 17, 2011 12:34am
http://www.forexlive.com/173787/all/...-plunge-patrol
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,235
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:34am Mar 17, 2011 12:34am
Quoting realjumper
Couple of questions for you:

...

Do use pivots?
Just made 34 pips safely using pivots after you suggested it, along with appropriate moving stop-losses and a reasonable limit! This is just anecdotal evidence, but it provides some good motivation to keep paying keen attention to pivots.
  • #23,236
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:39am Mar 17, 2011 12:39am
Quoting FFLaguna
Just made 34 pips safely using pivots after you suggested it, along with appropriate moving stop-losses and a reasonable limit! This is just anecdotal evidence, but it provides some good motivation to keep paying keen attention to pivots.
Well done

Pivots form the basis of my trading, as taught to me by a great trader, and good guy, acumen (Mike).
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,237
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:47am Mar 17, 2011 12:47am
it will take at least 30 years before japan build another nucleur reactor again , or we probably never gonna see it.

Quoting FFLaguna
Nuclear energy.
  • #23,238
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:50am Mar 17, 2011 12:50am
the margin u set is so conservative , my account is only 1000 and , per pips i trade is about 3$ . i am a crocodile waiting amist the deep water for any big movement , then i will subdue the prey. fprex is my full time and i will need about 60-pips profit per day = 180$ to maintain my monthly expenses.


Quoting 2+2=4ex
Might not be a bad time to stick one foot in the pool. Take a conservative entry. Take 1% of your account balance. Then divide that by 100.

For example, let's say your account is 10,000, then (10,000 x .01)/100. In this example that equals 1....
  • #23,239
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:56am Mar 17, 2011 12:56am
Quoting tankokjian
the margin u set is so conservative , my account is only 1000 and , per pips i trade is about 3$ . i am a crocodile waiting amist the deep water for any big movement , then i will subdue the prey. fprex is my full time and i will need about 60-pips profit per day = 180$ to maintain my monthly expenses.
Exactly why I said if you are "willing and able". I'm just trying to throw out a tip by using a very conservative example. One could do 3% if they prefer and still be pretty safe. I personally do stuff like this as side projects to my main trading. I have several accounts and sub-accounts for that purpose.
  • #23,240
  • Mar 17, 2011 12:58am Mar 17, 2011 12:58am
What was the highest registered spread across JPY based pairs yesterday? any one have idea on this?
38 traders viewing now