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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #23,141
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:04pm Mar 16, 2011 6:04pm

"ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN" is a statement that should be burned on everyones mind. And this statement was never more true than now.

The markets may be manipilated, they may be controled by robots, but this is just an inherant fact of the market that one must live with. If you cant accept this then it will drive you crazy.

Controling risk is the number onething for a trader, plenty people make money trading with bad MM. But bad MM will kick your ass eventually, and today is one of those days. No single trade should ever have the ability to cause serious damage to your account. A carpenter would not leave his expensive tools out in the rain to rust? Your account is the most precious thing, you must guard it with your life.

We have a very serious situation in japan, and who knows what is going to happen. The market will be here in a year (if it isnt you will have bigger things to worry about). These big moves can play tricks on you and make you do stupid things, if you feel that its like this then just take a break.

Anyway enough rant. Stay safe, and think about the people who are risking their lives at fukushima

  • #23,142
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:05pm Mar 16, 2011 6:05pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Well, I really don't care how you call it. I'm making money that's all it is
You're only making money because you enter at arbitrary levels and then allow trades to go hundreds under water before they (hopefully for you) return to show a profit. A sensible trader will be shorting while you go underwater and then long it when it turns. They will make money both ways while you get your scuba tanks wet.

Perhaps you can handle hundreds and hundreds under water while youwait for you 'trade', to show a profit. It doesn't change the fact though, trading with no stop loss is stupid.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,143
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:10pm Mar 16, 2011 6:10pm
Quoting frothy
hey has anyone noticed that the usd/jpy just dropped to the low .76's...does anyone know whats going on with this pair? Help a newbie out...thanks
Dude, I appreciate you're new, but are you too new to have read the last few pages and to have a general awareness of what's going on?

Quoting charlierich
I am losing 1500 bucks right now, i cant understand whats going on....every single bad new from Japan is better for the yen......
I assume you're long from somewhere above 81 ... if so, there is a chance it will go back to the 80 handle, and hopefully intervention gets it a 100 or more pips up further ... BoJ can move 200 pips in 5 minutes; see my post from Kathy Lien on this.

If you're short from below 78, well then, like's been said, anything can happen ...
  • #23,144
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:16pm Mar 16, 2011 6:16pm
Quoting charlierich
I am losing 1500 bucks right now, i cant understand whats going on....every single bad new from Japan is better for the yen......

However

backward never
surrender no way

damn... 1500 bucks????

this is like gambling.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #23,145
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:18pm Mar 16, 2011 6:18pm
guys, it seems like BoJ already doing something. my tic graph (in MT4) changes 10x times within macro seconds!!! do have the same?
  • #23,146
  • Edited 6:34pm Mar 16, 2011 6:22pm | Edited 6:34pm
Quoting realjumper
Perhaps you can handle hundreds and hundreds under water while youwait for you 'trade', to show a profit. It doesn't change the fact though, trading with no stop loss is stupid.
Real, look, in this particular situation volatility is so high and no one knows

which way and how deep it will drop (intervention? or maybe not), so, you place set of orders before

it's happens let's say 100 pips away, ones bottom is established and

pair bounce hard you took your lowest (in this case) orders in profit

out and re-group whole NET of orders (since now you have current low

in place). Basically I open 3 trades, took 140 from one and just 5 pips

from second one and the first still under water for now, and Place

back those 2 limit buys again but with higher spread based on current

low which is already in place, cause nothing goes one way all the time!

So basically you keep trading those positions out ones one of them in

profit.. Particularly good in current situations.. The reason WHY I'm doing

this? Cause direction is unknowing (BOJ also can start do something about it), if charts wasn't lying there will be

no Forex, cause it's Gambling, it's no different then just place bet on

some football team based on their previous performance..

I know, you won't agree, but it's gambling and specially scalping, for

sure. IMHO

I will leave it here, orders are in place, should it drop to 75, I don't even

care, more money for me
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #23,147
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:26pm Mar 16, 2011 6:26pm
just logged into fxcm. position closed? it can't be, i've enough funds to tank another 200+ pips.

*moment of truth*

what the fuck.
  • #23,148
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:27pm Mar 16, 2011 6:27pm
Yes Ben.... i am long since 81.940, its my biggest disaster ever in my trading experience, i am losing 1.300 bucks now but i am a fundamental, better than a technical....and fundamentals right now are very high for a yen bankruptcy so i am waiting and being strong...
  • #23,149
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:28pm Mar 16, 2011 6:28pm
i hope most are getting the news. Huge companies such as Metlife just took a 10% dip in their stockholders, along with majority of similar companies - big red sign of dollar and life insurance.
  • #23,150
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:28pm Mar 16, 2011 6:28pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Real, look, in this particular situation volatility is so high and no one knows

which way and how deep it will drop (intervention? or maybe not), so, you place set of orders before

it's happens let's say 100 pips away, ones bottom is established and

pair bounce hard you took your lowest (in this case) orders in profit

out and re-group whole NET of orders (since now you have current low

in place). Basically I open 3 trades, took 140 from one and just 5 pips

from second one and the first still under water for now, and Place

back those...
You're right....I don't agree. However, it would be helpful to newbies here if you didn't keep stating that you trade with no stop loss. I don't want, and I'm you don't either, to encourage people to do that and consequently get a margin call.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #23,151
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:32pm Mar 16, 2011 6:32pm
Quoting lyy.sg
just logged into fxcm. position closed? it can't be, i've enough funds to tank another 200+ pips.

*moment of truth*

what the fuck.
Lol. Can still joke on that
  • #23,152
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:33pm Mar 16, 2011 6:33pm
Quoting lyy.sg
just logged into fxcm. position closed? it can't be, i've enough funds to tank another 200+ pips.

*moment of truth*

what the fuck.
This is a little written way your broker collects, even when they don't need to.

Not sure of the combination of margin and leverage you're on, but with Oanda for example, a $10K account doesn't let you buy $2k of most currencies. They demand the rest be for margin. When a spike and volatility like this happens, they just automatically liquidate.

People never know where the money goes (ie., the house or into real liquidity), but it does suck because they can say "its for your safety, its in the agreement, you never want to trade without a stoploss, blah blah."

Sorry you lost - it happens to us all.
  • #23,153
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:36pm Mar 16, 2011 6:36pm
closed USD/JPY buy order 2 at 78,95
  • #23,154
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:38pm Mar 16, 2011 6:38pm
Bloomberg just reported that the Japanese Nuclear agency (or something like that) will be holding a news conference in about 1 hour.

UN boys also announcing something similar.

With Japan just woken up, we will be treated to tons of news bites. One can only hope the news is of the better variety.

EDIT: And most importantly - Nomura says yen intervention likely today.
  • #23,155
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:38pm Mar 16, 2011 6:38pm
Quoting charlierich
Yes Ben.... i am long since 81.940, its my biggest disaster ever in my trading experience, i am losing 1.300 bucks now but i am a fundamental, better than a technical....and fundamentals right now are very high for a yen bankruptcy so i am waiting and being strong...
&
Quoting lyy.sg
just logged into fxcm. position closed? it can't be, i've enough funds to tank another 200+ pips.

*moment of truth*

what the fuck.
Margin Call Calculator helps determine how far of a stretch you have before brokers take you out. Its worth the time to look at it. At least for me when i started trading 5 years ago.
  • #23,156
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:44pm Mar 16, 2011 6:44pm
Hmm.. so.. if the upcoming news release turns up bad for the japanese.. does this mean sell, sell and more selling?
  • #23,157
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:45pm Mar 16, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting charlierich
Yes Ben.... i am long since 81.940, its my biggest disaster ever in my trading experience, i am losing 1.300 bucks now but i am a fundamental, better than a technical....and fundamentals right now are very high for a yen bankruptcy so i am waiting and being strong...
i'm in the hole with 1k. i feel your pain.
  • #23,158
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:47pm Mar 16, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting charlierich
Yes Ben.... i am long since 81.940, its my biggest disaster ever in my trading experience, i am losing 1.300 bucks now but i am a fundamental, better than a technical....and fundamentals right now are very high for a yen bankruptcy so i am waiting and being strong...
The fundamentals of depreciating money during catastrophe does not work with Japan - but rather the exact opposite.

Charlie, Japanese are huge overseas investors - they have large stash of money in foreign countries like USA, China, Europe, Australia etc.

During crisis like this one, they repatriate their money back encashing their USD, AUD, EUR, GBP into the single currency JPY - thus JPY strengthens. Sure many companies pull their money out of Japan, but Japanese repatriation is far bigger than the exodus. BTW. Spring (Mar, Apr) is also the periodic/annual repatriation period as well - instead of trickle of JPY we see a heavy downpour instead this time.

JPY Bankruptcy? Before that happens, you'd see Germany going bankrupt first. And since Germany wont belly up, so will Japan.
  • #23,159
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:47pm Mar 16, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting realjumper
However, it would be helpful to newbies here if you didn't keep stating that you trade with no stop loss. I don't want, and I'm you don't either, to encourage people to do that and consequently get a margin call.
Sure no problem, sorry, you right..

Perhaps, I should point out huge account

compare to lot size is the key, otherwise, don't even try.

Good night and good luck for all of us.

Our Prayers go out to

people in Japan. GOD bless Japan. Amen.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #23,160
  • Mar 16, 2011 6:48pm Mar 16, 2011 6:48pm
Quoting chick3n420
Hmm.. so.. if the upcoming news release turns up bad for the japanese.. does this mean sell, sell and more selling?
don't be too quick to jump on conclusions maybe abetter way of putting it? there are usually spikes on major news events. What i like to do at times is wait for the wave to settle before entering back in its directed trend.

I am curious and interested if VSA has been applied here to this specific pair.....
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