USD/JPY Discussion

Could get another drop lower on USD/JPY if the descending trend line is respected on USDX. Currently at 80.08 on USD/JPY.

USDX M5

do technical indicators, charts and drawings still matter at this point of time for JPY?

IMO. the best indicator right now is the nuclear reactors.

Oh My Gudness... 79.80... i can't believe my eyes but it's happening right now.. i'm sensing an intervention in 5 hours ^^ *finger crossed*

Who the heck buying nuclear YEN? It's dead. period..

Deutsche Bank's 6 months target for UJ in a note to investors : 75.00
Can't wait for the big dive when all time low at 79.75 is breached.

omg 80 is broken.

O
M
G

Ain't gonna happen.. Japan will intervene long before that..

Keep shorting, you going to be burn.

Barclays had 85 the last time I read their report.

If it aint broke, don't mess with it. In other words, if it aint closed it aint broke.

big bankers selling the news. which is more worthy? Big Bulls vs. Big Bears.

Didn't say I was short, I'm flat and watching PA. But I'll never buy at an all time low, simply because there would be no logical place to put my stop loss. Think about it and pray if you're on the long side.

That's what MM's about I can hold 500-700 pips down, have no problem

to average down.. Won't use Stop loss at all time low.

Just woke up to see where we are.....just about the same place as we were after the Kobe earthquake. Freefall below and it could happen.

"Redistribution"? Lets compare USA and JAPAN.. Anyway you look at

Japan have no Land, No Agriculture, nothing, but computer cheeps.

YEN backed up by sea grass and fugu fish.

If Chernobyl scenario turn out to be real, then All

Japanese

will have to move off that land, and YEN is finished. NON EXISTS.

new all time low!79.73

Not quite.

Not sure whether to buy now or sell Waiting

Could be a pretty bearish evening for USD/JPY.
Yen futures still at the high and grinding higher.
USDX bouncing of resistance looking for a renewed move down.
Also big stop losses below the low.

Yen Futures H4


USDX M5

Agree...there will be plenty trying to long this with stops below 79.50....too dangerous to attempt a long here.

4 minutes before the NY 5pm close, and a record low thrashes USDJPY onto the books. 79.58ish. Purposeful timing? Not at all - algos and speculators in low liquidy, hard at work. Now, 1 minute after 5, the currency meltdown continues: 79.336

GBPJPY drops 100 pips in that same time span.

What a day. I am not a believer in eternal UJ falling - there are lots of experts and theories on what is driving the yen's appreciation, but no one really knows with certainty where the flows are from/to.

While the nuclear situation is in flux in Japan, their economy & currency cannot be ignored. Let's hope intervention is one of the deeds. Even without it, I expect violent thrashes in UJ over the next days -we'd already seen some of this since Sunday night.

Here's one's opinion on what needs to be done. Article below, original source here.

Nervous market pushes yen higher
Charles Riley, staff reporter, On Wednesday March 16, 2011, 3:09 pm EDT
The dollar tested all-time lows against a strengthening Japanese yen Wednesday as global uncertainty global and the prospect of more cash flowing into Japan pushed its currency higher.

The dollar briefly fell below 80 against the yen in trading Wednesday, but fell short of the April, 1995 low of 79.75.

Despite the nation's turmoil, the yen has long been a haven for risk-averse investors. Japanese corporations are also expected to repatriate vast amounts of capital. Those funds are currently tied up in foreign markets but will be needed to facilitate rebuilding.

At this point, most analysts see global risk as the dominating factor for the yen's rise. Portugal's credit rating was downgraded on Wednesday. And violence in the Middle East and North Africa continued.

All that uncertainty is sending investors scurrying for cover, moving from high-risk assets into cash and bonds. The super-safe haven Swiss franc outpaced its competitors, setting a new high against the dollar Wednesday.

"Really what is happening now right now is a risk aversion story," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com.

The effects of repatriation will need more time to boost the yen, according to Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

"This is not supposed to be a knee-jerk reaction. This is a market phenomenon that will take months to play out," he said.

Much of that has to do with the fact that the third phase of the disaster is still unfolding. On Wednesday, Japanese authorities were working feverishly to avoid a nuclear meltdown.

"We don't know yet what the full extent of the disaster is," Woolfolk said. "It's not clear how much money will be needed to rebuild or clean up."

Following the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the dollar fell sharply against the yen, reaching an all time low near 80. Analysts say things will play out differently this time, largely because the dollar is already near a record low.

Japanese authorities are soon expected to intervene in currency markets to arrest the yen's appreciation. A stronger home currency will make Japanese goods more expensive in overseas markets, to the detriment of Japan's manufacturing industry. And because of the scale of the disaster, authorities will likely be given a free pass by their central bank counterparts.

Woolfolk said it would be politically intolerable for the Japanese government to allow much appreciation at all, and said he expects the line to be drawn near 80.

A relatively stable yen would allow Japan to turn its attention to other matters: calming equity markets, bolstering government bonds and starting the rebuilding process.