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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,881
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:08pm Mar 14, 2011 11:08pm
Quoting noblehobo
all pretty amazing/sad/scary stuff to be honest... I've only taken positions around 1/4 of my normal size in this and all Yen pairs of late...

doesn't seem like these large spikes smell of intervention (yet) though we are crazy close to the lows
Ok, I haven't been around much for large scale national disasters, changes and trading, but I remember from 2008, you can throw the technicals out of the window. ANd yes, the 1995 EQ the yen rose.....but ffs, thinking it'll do this again based on repatriation, recovery.....sure. Maybe at some point? But remember you are gambling, technicals are out the window at some point.
  • #22,882
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:21pm Mar 14, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting lolygagv2
Ok, I haven't been around much for large scale national disasters, changes and trading, but I remember from 2008, you can throw the technicals out of the window. ANd yes, the 1995 EQ the yen rose.....but ffs, thinking it'll do this again based on repatriation, recovery.....sure. Maybe at some point? But remember you are gambling, technicals are out the window at some point.
I'm not solely trading to the long side here based on past interventions... my trading style has me in both directions - I was simply saying that if it is being talked about on the wires then it is always a possibility
  • #22,883
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:21pm Mar 14, 2011 11:21pm
Quoting lolygagv2
Ok, I haven't been around much for large scale national disasters, changes and trading, but I remember from 2008, you can throw the technicals out of the window. ANd yes, the 1995 EQ the yen rose.....but ffs, thinking it'll do this again based on repatriation, recovery.....sure. Maybe at some point? But remember you are gambling, technicals are out the window at some point.
/sigh. Why does this discussion come up every single night. This is not gambling, and technicals are very much still in play. Just because you do not read a chart correctly, does not mean they do not work.

If I wanted to gamble, i'll go to Vegas. Instead, I trade forex and make money. Not anything close to the same.
  • #22,884
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:22pm Mar 14, 2011 11:22pm
Some guest on Bloomberg said the yen is going to be weaker. It's official!

Look at the 15m... the start of the rise to 85.00!
  • #22,885
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:28pm Mar 14, 2011 11:28pm
Next catastrophe be???? Perhaps Japan selling $800 Billion in US Treasury debt that will lead to a bond market meltdown.
  • #22,886
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:30pm Mar 14, 2011 11:30pm
Quoting Venice
If I wanted to gamble, i'll go to Vegas. Instead, I trade forex and make money. Not anything close to the same.
Though taking a trip to Vegas or Macau to gamble with money made through forex is a GREAT VACATION!!!
  • #22,887
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:33pm Mar 14, 2011 11:33pm
Fundamentally it should be weaker.
Exports down, imports up...current account decrease...currency depreciation.

Also, how is the yen going to hold on to its 'flight to safety' status with the nation unable to produce?

Its true usdjpy did bottom after the '95 earthquake, but then went on a 10 year bull run..

I don't know, I'm a little long at the moment.
  • #22,888
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:39am Mar 15, 2011 12:39am
i thought USD is at .25% and yen at 0.1%. Can someone explain why is FCXM charging me negative rollover on long positions?
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  • #22,889
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:41am Mar 15, 2011 12:41am
Another explosion in reactor, CNN a few minutes ago
  • #22,890
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:48am Mar 15, 2011 12:48am
Quoting Geelong_Cats
i thought USD is at .25% and yen at 0.1%. Can someone explain why is FCXM charging me negative rollover on long positions?
Markup. Most brokers charge an adjustment in their favor. It's their "cost" of transacting swaps for you. Kind of like a service charge. You can also call it the "bend me over" charge.
  • #22,891
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:50am Mar 15, 2011 12:50am
Does anyone else think that more than one of the reactors is leaking radiation?
  • #22,892
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:51am Mar 15, 2011 12:51am
I got no idea what is going on!!!

- Japan was downgraded
- Japan got the biggest disaster within 100 years
- Bank of Japan dumped 15 trillion yen into their financial system
- blah blah blah blah

And all I can see is their yen is getting stronger and stronger and stronger. Their yen against all of majority currency out there.

I don't trade in this situation but I'm deadly want somebody give me a logical explanation to me. I don't believe in the bullsh!t "repatriation". That story is made up by big boys in wall street so they can ask us to buy yen so they can get away their trash.
  • #22,893
  • Edited 1:07am Mar 15, 2011 12:56am | Edited 1:07am
Quoting visser300
I got no idea what is going on!!!

- Japan was downgraded
- Japan got the biggest disaster within 100 years
- Bank of Japan dumped 15 trillion yen into their financial system
- blah blah blah blah

And all I can see is their yen is getting stronger and stronger and stronger. Their yen against all of majority currency out there.

I don't trade in this situation but I'm deadly want somebody give me a logical explanation to me. I don't believe in the bullsh!t "repatriation". That story is made up by big boys in wall street so they can ask us to buy...
Perhaps BoJ is manipulating it. They apparently won't say whether they've been doing so thus far. But now we're just speculating... If I was BoJ, I would want to keep people investing, and if there are huge currency fluctuations that would deter current and future investors. Maybe they're doing EVERYTHING they can to keep it stable, and hope to ride it out? But that can't last forever... I really don't know.

I think having the rolling blackouts during daylight hours is going to be one of many factors affecting the economy, and I just heard the current toll is at 60,000 homes demolished (edit: heard it again on Bloomberg just now) and many factories ruined. And the unfortunate death toll is still rising... yesterday it was 1500 dead, 1500 missing. Now it is 2500 dead, 3000 missing.
  • #22,894
  • Mar 15, 2011 12:57am Mar 15, 2011 12:57am
Visser, it's because Japanese financial institutions are selling their dollar assets like equities and commodities. This has been seen as dipping in S&P and Eurostocks. A logical assumption is that gold will dip a lot more, maybe 1300 according my 'theory'. I'm waiting for touching 1 300 again...
  • #22,895
  • Mar 15, 2011 1:09am Mar 15, 2011 1:09am
Quoting matlock
Visser, it's because Japanese financial institutions are selling their dollar assets like equities and commodities. This has been seen as dipping in S&P and Eurostocks. A logical assumption is that gold will dip a lot more, maybe 1300 according my 'theory'. I'm waiting for touching 1 300 again...
Nah, I told ya that it's a made-up story of wall street elephants.

The foreign investors must sell yen to buy usd or something to get the hell out of there, right? If I'm a foreign investor, I really want to get my cash out of there immediately to wait for things calm down. And you should watch the volumes of Yen Future in CME. It's very very small in the past three days. If Japanese companies really want to dump all of their assets to get yen back, I am really really not believe that the volume is such so mall.
  • #22,896
  • Mar 15, 2011 1:36am Mar 15, 2011 1:36am
like i said, fundamentally what happened in Japan has no effect on the charts unless Japan disappears from the map. i cant see how repatriation could made Yen so strong , doesnt makes sense , unless someone wants to buy yen so to sell them more expensively.

we shall see how strong can yen be when the employment , production index is out. the fact is , i like to see JPY really solving their immediate crisis rather than someone manipulating it.
  • #22,897
  • Mar 15, 2011 1:38am Mar 15, 2011 1:38am
Quoting Geelong_Cats
i thought USD is at .25% and yen at 0.1%. Can someone explain why is FCXM charging me negative rollover on long positions?
Try asking in the broker section of forex factory FXCM have a thread there and their representative will answer you.
  • #22,898
  • Mar 15, 2011 1:45am Mar 15, 2011 1:45am
Quoting visser300
I got no idea what is going on!!!

- Japan was downgraded
- Japan got the biggest disaster within 100 years
- Bank of Japan dumped 15 trillion yen into their financial system
- blah blah blah blah

And all I can see is their yen is getting stronger and stronger and stronger. Their yen against all of majority currency out there.

I don't trade in this situation but I'm deadly want somebody give me a logical explanation to me. I don't believe in the bullsh!t "repatriation". That story is made up by big boys in wall street so they can ask us to buy...
You should seriously try google or read newswires (DJ,Reuters etc).

Its called repatriation and was anticipated by many market movers. Japan is liquidating their foreign assets and currency reserves. Thus Yen is gainign in strength since BOJ has been actively taking part in making sure the yen remains weak against other currencies to boost their export rates since their economy is mainly export based.

BOJ is going to intervene if this drops to low though, a strong yen would collapse their economy even further than it is now, expect dips to max 79.4 before this gets bumped up by BOJ.
  • #22,899
  • Mar 15, 2011 1:49am Mar 15, 2011 1:49am
Quoting Orbital
You should seriously try google or read newswires (DJ,Reuters etc).

Its called repatriation and was anticipated by many market movers. Japan is liquidating their foreign assets and currency reserves. Thus Yen is gainign in strength since BOJ has been actively taking part in making sure the yen remains weak against other currencies to boost their export rates since their economy is mainly export based.

BOJ is going to intervene if this drops to low though, a strong yen would collapse their economy even further than it is now, expect dips to max...
They are strengthening their currency, not devaluing it. They need it to import goods to rebuild. They're also injecting money into their economy to keep it from stalling.
  • #22,900
  • Mar 15, 2011 1:56am Mar 15, 2011 1:56am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
They are strengthening their currency, not devaluing it. They need it to import goods to rebuild.
Dude... i can't remember the last time i have slept but ill get 4 hours worth of sleep now since im ridiculously high on profit right now.

Despite my sleep deprivation my memory seems to be intact... so does my ability to add the dots apparently.

The bank of Japan will intervene in the markets and STEM the yens growth, check your newswire or simply google it. They Need to stem it otherwise their exports are going to be fucked up, their economy is going to contract even more causing a shitstorm.

The only thing they will need to be importing en masse is Oil, and according to my research theyll need at least 150-200k bpd (barrels per day).

Please do your research before arguing with other people.


EDIT:

Also if its not to high... buy copper if your broker has it and it hasnt grown to much for now.
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