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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,841
  • Mar 14, 2011 11:12am Mar 14, 2011 11:12am
Quoting FFLaguna
It's a lot more than that. Here's a new article from Bloomberg this morning. There may be something to this "strengthening yen" trend even in the face of the natural disasters.
that's what i'm talking about, Japan is getting to take big actions to beat this disaster
  • #22,842
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:32pm Mar 14, 2011 1:32pm
Quoting FFLaguna
It's a lot more than that. Here's a new article from Bloomberg this morning. There may be something to this "strengthening yen" trend even in the face of the natural disasters.
The central bank pumped 15 trillion yen into money markets - so yen should weaken (economy basis,right?). After last night stop hunting I really hoped nice trend up on USDJPY but after 120 pips I see some flag and waiting for Japanese session, not good
  • #22,843
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:09pm Mar 14, 2011 2:09pm
Before and after satellite pictures from the tsunami... there are 12 before and 12 after pics, and you can see thousands of homes just destroyed and washed away. Literally entire towns are completely and irrevocably gone.
  • #22,844
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:22pm Mar 14, 2011 2:22pm
The charts are looking pretty bearish for USD/JPY.

The Yen futures have broken through resistance and yesterdays spike hit 12.44 with the recent 15 year low at 12.46.
On USD/JPY H4 attached below, the USDX is bumping down the descending trend line, helping to weaken the USD and add further momentum to the down move of USD/JPY.

Yen Futures H4
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USD/JPY H4
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  • #22,845
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:31pm Mar 14, 2011 2:31pm
Quote
The Yen futures have broken through resistance and yesterdays spike hit 12.44 with the recent 15 year low at 12.46.
12.44 what? What units? Yes, I am new.
  • #22,846
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:44pm Mar 14, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting FFLaguna
12.44 what? What units? Yes, I am new.
Hey FFLaguna,

The Yen Futures Index is the equivalent to the USD Index (USDX).
As the Yen strengthens, so does the index (in exactly the same way of the USDX).
I use Thinkorswim which you can open up a demo account with to access the futures charts.
  • #22,847
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:52pm Mar 14, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting fosking
The charts are looking pretty bearish for USD/JPY.

The Yen futures have broken through resistance and yesterdays spike hit 12.44 with the recent 15 year low at 12.46.
On USD/JPY H4 attached below, the USDX is bumping down the descending trend line, helping to weaken the USD and add further momentum to the down move of USD/JPY.

Yen Futures H4
Attachment

USD/JPY H4
Attachment
Hi married man, had a good party?
fully agree especially after this pull-back.
Assume we will be testing 80.25 no longs for me (yet)

D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,848
  • Mar 14, 2011 3:04pm Mar 14, 2011 3:04pm
Just a question, does the bearish bias take into account, the BoJ intervention? In past interventions, at minimum we've seen a 400 pip rise over a week or so.. compared to yesterdays 200..

If there wasn't the tragedy in japan, I would no doubt concur with the bearish bias

Thoughts?
  • #22,849
  • Mar 14, 2011 3:13pm Mar 14, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Hi married man, had a good party?
Hey Bear, how are you?
It all went smoothly thank you. I guess I have a boss again now

Yup, I'm in the same boat as yourself. I am looking towards the recent 15yr low and the nice healthy cluster of stop losses below.
I will see how we look after that, but longs will certainly look tempting as the retail crowd jump in short on the break through support. Will see how it goes.
Hope you had a profitable couple of weeks.
  • #22,850
  • Mar 14, 2011 3:14pm Mar 14, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting Cdawg
Just a question, does the bearish bias take into account, the BoJ intervention? In past interventions, at minimum we've seen a 400 pip rise over a week or so.. compared to yesterdays 200..

If there wasn't the tragedy in japan, I would no doubt concur with the bearish bias

Thoughts?
Yes, it's relative strength is apperent even when technicalls and news suggest the other way, that alone suggests waiting for more solid basing could be wise.
Apart from scalping wouldn't short at current levels though.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,851
  • Mar 14, 2011 3:32pm Mar 14, 2011 3:32pm

From FT:

"In its largest ever one-day liquidity operation to calm markets, Japan’s central bank said it would make Y15,000bn available immediately and a further Y6,800bn over the next two days in order to deal with an expected rise in demand for funds."


We could see some of that 6,800 in the Tokyo session!
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #22,852
  • Mar 14, 2011 4:35pm Mar 14, 2011 4:35pm
Back! Getting ready to go to the office. Opened up my platform. Some of my lots closed at my stop (well into profit), still glad I took a lot off at 82.00 I have some open still from my stop being moved to almost breakeven (3 pips above). I haven't gotten a good look at all my charts but I am looking to go long again if the USD/JPY drops a little more. We'll see when I can look at my charts more at the office
  • #22,853
  • Mar 14, 2011 5:10pm Mar 14, 2011 5:10pm
I will stay long UY, I can hold til the all time low and way further without the risk of a margin call.
Let's see what BoJ will do in the next few days.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #22,854
  • Edited 5:24pm Mar 14, 2011 5:11pm | Edited 5:24pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
Back! Getting ready to go to the office. Opened up my platform. Some of my lots closed at my stop (well into profit), still glad I took a lot off at 82.00 I have some open still from my stop being moved to almost breakeven (3 pips above). I haven't gotten a good look at all my charts but I am looking to go long again if the USD/JPY drops a little more. We'll see when I can look at my charts more at the office
Hey,

Welcome back to the yen pit. Am glad things happened like they did. Some pip is better than no pip.

Do you remember last night, poster TS63 pointed out, correctly I might add, that
so much of those trillions of yen are going straight to the top JP banks
in order to provide liquidity for immediate demand for yen cash and
not so much so as direct foreign exchange intervention in the marketplace ?

He most likely thought I was some kind of asshole and blew me off,
which is okay cause I am, but that's just me, and I've done this a while
and so I do what I do. But, he did raise a good point and I wanted to give him credit.

I put a little more thought into this and in light of the next couple days of
additional funds injections in to the banking system and being more of the same,
more or less, the huge numbers may not be all they seem.

Now the additional 5 trillion in asset purchase is another issue and it seems
the market did respond to that, but if one compares this massive liquidity deployment
with the TARP funds the US literally forced the banks to accept and how much good
it actually did in the intermediate term (none really) and then most of them gave the money back
after the noise settled down and they didn't even lend that much of it out anyway,
then it could be reasoned that this massive liquidity injection is just a public front
to prevent an international run on the JP banks and for appearances sake
it's working for the moment.

Perhaps the BOJ doesn't want the Yen to move right now ?

Could even go into an even tighter range than it has been for the last few months.

So, maybe we will all have to just hurry up and wait.

But take a gander at the Daily chart. There's one of those "every now and then fat fingers"
I mentioned before. Hard to miss it. All it would take to get rolling, even for a little while,
would be a little follow through right here, reclaiming 82 the figure and a pop above yesterday's extreme
and perhaps we could see another card in order to tell us where the next supply level is.

I still think the first real supply will appear before 83 handle.
Above there, I'll want to recalculate, but until then, I still have my 8287 target.
Also, I still hold out that a real long term bottom could eventually take hold
one of these days (maybe?) and we could see a nice little run here into the mid 80's.
But for sure, it will take some time.

How is everything going?
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  • #22,855
  • Mar 14, 2011 5:50pm Mar 14, 2011 5:50pm
Quoting toshi
Hey,

Welcome back to the yen pit. Am glad things happened like they did. Some pip is better than no pip.

Do you remember last night, poster TS63 pointed out, correctly I might add, that
so much of those trillions of yen are going straight to the top JP banks
in order to provide liquidity for immediate demand for yen cash and
not so much so as direct foreign exchange intervention in the marketplace ?

He most likely thought I was some kind of asshole and blew me off,
which is okay cause I am, but that's just me, and I've done this a while
and so...
Hey, thanks for the welcome. Just got in the office.

Yeah, I remember him pointing that out. I also thought about it at the time and while I understand what's going on, I figured it might have affected the market a little more - even if it's not literally putting its hands in the currency market.

I still have my target at 82.80, but I'm a bit cautious of scaling in more lots because I still see potential downside to the 80 handle and perhaps even lower to the all time low. I'm back at the office to figure out what I want to do.

I definitely see it on my daily chart!


Other than that, I'm doing well. It's a dark and gloomy Tuesday here in Korea.
  • #22,856
  • Mar 14, 2011 6:34pm Mar 14, 2011 6:34pm
across bloomberg:

former nuclear plant designer says the plant can't survive the damage done

another explosion at reactor no 2

radiation levels are surpassing legal levels.


--

fuel rods are exposed. radiation levels are obviously way above the official stats
  • #22,857
  • Edited 8:00pm Mar 14, 2011 7:19pm | Edited 8:00pm
Quoting fosking
Hey FFLaguna,

The Yen Futures Index is the equivalent to the USD Index (USDX).
As the Yen strengthens, so does the index (in exactly the same way of the USDX).
I use Thinkorswim which you can open up a demo account with to access the futures charts.
Ah, great! Thanks for taking the time to explain this. I also found this on Wikipedia:

Quote
The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
  • #22,858
  • Mar 14, 2011 8:06pm Mar 14, 2011 8:06pm
What the heck... They're not conducting the black-outs at night like I would have guessed. They are scheduled to occur for about three hours at a time per region, spanning the hours of 0620-2200.

Here's the official source stating that the black-outs will be conducted during prime daylight hours. I guess they have a good reason (higher energy consumption during the daytime, obviously).
  • #22,859
  • Mar 14, 2011 8:14pm Mar 14, 2011 8:14pm
Any traders in Japan right now? A few of my friends have left Japan and came back to Korea for the time being.

Fukushima looks like it's all kinds of fucked up right now and will continue to get worse
  • #22,860
  • Mar 14, 2011 9:00pm Mar 14, 2011 9:00pm
Lunchtime break in Tokyo.

Japanese PM is about to speak. Anyway have any trades open?


update:

Kan: Radiation is high, radiation has spread.

Yen is getting stronger at this moment.

update:

reactor no 4 is on fire, burning.
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