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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,821
  • Mar 14, 2011 7:42am Mar 14, 2011 7:42am
come on yen!!! give me 81.50/40 to buy the hell out of you!
consistency wins
  • #22,822
  • Mar 14, 2011 7:58am Mar 14, 2011 7:58am
Quoting iTrader
come on yen!!! give me 81.50/40 to buy the hell out of you!
Just curious. What do you see at that level to make you want to enter there?
  • #22,823
  • Mar 14, 2011 8:08am Mar 14, 2011 8:08am
I went short when I meant to go long right around 3:30am when the yen gained strength. I noticed I was gaining pips, the opposite of what I was expecting! I got out at a good point and gained a few pips...

Quote
Because Japan is a net-exporter of capital. Money that would otherwise be slated for overseas investment in search of higher yields is suddenly diverted to domestic use. In Addition, Japanese insurers invest large amounts overseas on higher-yielding instruments and are forced to bring those funds home to pay claims. Foreign insurers also have to buy JPY to pay claims. The all-time low in USD/JPY came after the Kobe earthquake in 1995 on just such a reaction.
So, is this going to happen again? We've got a LOT of bad press surrounding Japan, and aside from a BoJ injection there is no good news there right now. Is yen going to lose strength on the long-term?
  • #22,824
  • Mar 14, 2011 8:13am Mar 14, 2011 8:13am
Quoting FFLaguna
Is yen going to lose strength on the long-term?
In my novice way of thinking it all hinges on the reactors and the aftershocks. I do not want to be holding Yen if things go bad to worse.
  • #22,825
  • Mar 14, 2011 8:54am Mar 14, 2011 8:54am
why is it moving by fraction pips only , zzzzz
  • #22,826
  • Mar 14, 2011 9:04am Mar 14, 2011 9:04am
media is always over reacting on things,same goes for the traders,the cunami might done some damage,but for country with population of over 127million its nothing.
  • #22,827
  • Mar 14, 2011 9:10am Mar 14, 2011 9:10am
It is the nucleur reactors that can cause everything to go to Hell in a heartbeat. Granted, the stories we have been hearing may be a bit sensationalized but that kind of shit scares the hell out of me.
  • #22,828
  • Mar 14, 2011 9:35am Mar 14, 2011 9:35am
Quoting Astroman
It is the nucleur reactors that can cause everything to go to Hell in a heartbeat. Granted, the stories we have been hearing may be a bit sensationalized but that kind of shit scares the hell out of me.
This isn't going to be a Chernobyl, although that's how the media will portray it, just like Three-Mile Island. It is too easy for a reporter to say "Radioactive gas released in explosion!" or "Radioactive plume will reach the west coast of the US!", without dwelling on the reality of the non-existant danger.

Chernobyl was based on a design that was known at the time to be flawed, and run by people who did not understand the system they were working with. The actions they took to get the reactor pile under control ended up having the opposite effect because they didn't know what was going on. The containment system wasn't built to standard, and this was a REAL nuclear disaster that killed a LOT of people and sicked many, many more.

Three-Mile Island was different. It was an example of everything that can go RIGHT in a nuclear incident. There were no deaths attributed to the accident, and no rise in cancer from it. The radiation release was absolutely, positively miniscule to the point where you can almost say "no radiation was released", if it weren't for the fact that we have such fantastically sensitive radiation sensors. The equipment in the specific reactor room that had the meltdown was destroyed, but everything outside was fine. For an incident where all the safety features work as INTENDED, and no deaths were attributed, it is crazy to think this stalled essentially ALL nuclear power plant production in the entire United States for decades.

I am disheartened by the TWO explosions of built-up hydrogen gas in separate reactors in Japan, but so far the containment systems have held up 100%. I am pretty darned confident we do not have a nuclear disaster on our hands, however the media will portray it the opposite, like they did with Three-Mile Island.

Now, as for real effects... a couple nuclear plants are out of commission permanently, and several are still in emergency shut-down mode and won't come back on until later. Japan is really, truly, for real implementing rolling black-outs for three hours a day for the entire main island except for the Tokyo metropolitan area. That is an ENORMOUSLY huge thing to be going on in ANY modern nation. Think about the effects of having no electricity for three hours a day... that's nuts. And these measures will be in effect more-or-less until "late April" !!

I'm going long on yen. Let's see.
  • #22,829
  • Mar 14, 2011 9:44am Mar 14, 2011 9:44am
from the bottom of my heart even if i lost all of my trades i rather they do well.
  • #22,830
  • Mar 14, 2011 9:55am Mar 14, 2011 9:55am
Quoting FFLaguna
This isn't going to be a Chernobyl, although that's how the media will portray it, just like Three-Mile Island. It is too easy for a reporter to say "Radioactive gas released in explosion!" or "Radioactive plume will reach the west coast of the US!", without dwelling on the reality of the non-existant danger.

Chernobyl was based on a design that was known at the time to be flawed, and run by people who did not understand the system they were working with. The actions they took to get the reactor pile under control ended up having the opposite...
Great post although I would not be buying the UJ yet I do agree with you and know that these types of news events are used by large money managers to manipulate and drive the market to areas of price that are desirable to them.

"Sell the rumor and buy the Fact."
  • #22,831
  • Mar 14, 2011 9:59am Mar 14, 2011 9:59am
Quoting FFLaguna
This isn't going to be a Chernobyl, although that's how the media will portray it, just like Three-Mile Island. It is too easy for a reporter to say "Radioactive gas released in explosion!" or "Radioactive plume will reach the west coast of the US!", without dwelling on the reality of the non-existant danger.
Too early to tell. besides I doubt the general public will look on this as a * non-existant danger", because it is not.

Quote
you can almost say "no radiation was released",

But, radiation was released.
  • #22,832
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:02am Mar 14, 2011 10:02am
While investors is willing for money support to economy, plus sell presure on Sunday open, opened short at 81.90. Let's see...
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-W.../usdjpy_d7.png
Regards
  • #22,833
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:04am Mar 14, 2011 10:04am
Don't mix different quotes to make it seem like I'm saying something I'm not. This isn't the place to stoke anti-nuclear fears.

On the Japan issue: Neglible amounts of radiation have been released. Some US sailors were exposed to the drifting plume and were easily decontaminated. The total radiation amounted to what you would receive over a typical month just from being in the sun from time to time.

On the Three-Mile Island issue, quoting the EPA report on the Three-Mile Island accident:

Quote
An inter-agency analysis concluded that the accident did not raise radioactivity far enough above background levels to cause even one additional cancer death among the people in the area. The EPA found no contamination in water, soil, sediment or plant samples.

Whether there is danger in Japan is irrelevant, everybody knows the media and they can't resist nuclear headlines!
  • #22,834
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:12am Mar 14, 2011 10:12am
Hi 4X Experts,

I'm holding below position..

EURUSD 0.1 Lots short from 1.2940 = -1040 pip loss
USDJPY 0.1 Lots long from 82.65 = -107 pip loss.

My total fund available including P/L is 2000$

Should i hold this position or book loss..

Your kind advise needed..

Thanks,
Satheesh
  • #22,835
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:16am Mar 14, 2011 10:16am
Quoting FFLaguna
Don't mix different quotes to make it seem like I'm saying something I'm not. This isn't the place to stoke anti-nuclear fears.
That was not my intention nor do I think that is what I was doing at all. I am not stoking anti-nucleur fears and whether this is the place to do it or not is not your call to make.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...00733720110314

Quote
Nuclear fuel rods at a quake-stricken Japanese nuclear reactor are now fully exposed, Jiji news agency said, quoting the plant's operator, Tokyo Eletcric Power Co ....
This is real. Not fear mongering.
  • #22,836
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:22am Mar 14, 2011 10:22am
Quoting Astroman
That was not my intention nor do I think that is what I was doing at all. I am not stoking anti-nucleur fears and whether this is the place to do it or not is not your call to make.
Okay! I judged you too quickly.
Quoting Astroman
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...00733720110314

This is real. Not fear mongering.
That is so misleading. To break it down, the article states two things:

1) The improvised coolant (sea water) isn't being pumped in fast enough to keep the fuel rods submerged.
2) The containment vessel (a gigantic, reinforced sarcophagus) is still intact.

When it says the fuel rods are exposed, it doesn't mean to open air. It just means that the rods are literally no longer submerged in coolant. This probably means a meltdown is going to happen eventually, which isn't a big deal at this point as long as the containment vessel holds. The equipment inside will be ruined even more than the sea water would have harmed it. Now if the containment vessel fails, that would be a nuclear disaster, but nobody at this point is looking at that as a real possibility.
  • #22,837
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:26am Mar 14, 2011 10:26am
Quick extra quote from a nice news article with a few more details:

Quote
There is a general consensus that there is little risk of a Chornobyl-type disaster in Japan, because the Japanese reactors have a containment shell that the doomed Russian reactor did not.

I'm worried about the explosions caused by the build-up of hydrogen gases and rising temperatures that ignited it, but I would imagine (hope?) the containment vessel is built with these factors in mind.
  • #22,838
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:47am Mar 14, 2011 10:47am
why would u think investors are giving support , i dont agree buying yen can improve the condition ? lets see how long can yen strengthen without production .

Quoting suirad
While investors is willing for money support to economy, plus sell presure on Sunday open, opened short at 81.90. Let's see...
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-W.../usdjpy_d7.png
Regards
  • #22,839
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:52am Mar 14, 2011 10:52am
Quoting tankokjian
why would u think investors are giving support , i dont agree buying yen can improve the condition ? lets see how long can yen strengthen without production .
It is struggling right now, but for long term it is expected for big money in Japan economy, when reconstructions will begin

Plus todays Japan bank announcement of 15 billion Yen in bank system

Regards
  • #22,840
  • Mar 14, 2011 10:55am Mar 14, 2011 10:55am
Quoting suirad
It is struggling right now, but for long term it is expected for big money in Japan economy, when reconstructions will begin

Plus todays Japan bank announcement of 15 billion Yen in bank system

Regards
It's a lot more than that. Here's a new article from Bloomberg this morning. There may be something to this "strengthening yen" trend even in the face of the natural disasters.
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