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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,761
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:09am Mar 14, 2011 1:09am
i got a feeling the bears are fighting a losing battle , they are trying to put on a brave front


Quoting latropsudoxe
I can't find an article released yet, but the latest from my feed:

BOJ concludes one-day policy board meeting:

Keep interest rates at 0.1% (unanimous vote)

Asset buying to rise by 5 Trillion Yen to 30 Trillion Yen to keep sentiment from worsening

Production Activity will drop

Business Household sentiment hurt from quake


*Yet we are seeing a drop in the USD/JPY
  • #22,762
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:16am Mar 14, 2011 1:16am
Quoting tankokjian
i got a feeling the bears are fighting a losing battle , they are trying to put on a brave front
While I do see the *possibility* of a strengthening of the Yen due to repatriation back into Yen, but with the massive liquidity injection promised by the BOJ I can't see the bears gaining steam here.
  • #22,763
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:23am Mar 14, 2011 1:23am
Quoting toshi
Shirakawa promised "massive liquidity".

How you guys like all that liquid ?

It's been squirting out all over Toyko like an elephant cock !!!

(My target 82.87/82.95 B4 it's stops squirting)
(it takes at least a few hours to move 7 trillion Yen)

86 Yards of a major currency is all in a days work, but
when it's orchestrated by a CB, it usually comes in waves
layered through out the day.... Just an observation though.
I'm sorry but the liquidity provided by the BOJ doesn't go into into yen intervention, it goes to the banks so that they do not run out of cash in case depositors rush to withdraw money, particularly in North East Japan.
  • #22,764
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:35am Mar 14, 2011 1:35am
Quoting ts63
I'm sorry but the liquidity provided by the BOJ doesn't go into into yen intervention,
it goes to the banks so that they do not run out of cash in case depositors rush to withdraw money, particularly in North East Japan.

Don't be sorry...

After all these years, nobody listens to me anyway .

But the truth is: perception IS reality, at least until the next circus arrives.

This last circus featured an Elephant spewing pips all over the place
and all was going well until we ran banged into structure at the Daily Pivot
and then Godzilla showed up, scared the elephant away and then the midgets
got COMPLETELY out of hand. That's when I asked the bearded lady if
I could see under her dress and she gave me such a slap !

That's what's really going on at the BOJ.
  • #22,765
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:39am Mar 14, 2011 1:39am
Quoting toshi
Don't be sorry...

After all these years, nobody listens to me anyway .

But the truth is: perception IS reality, at least until the next circus arrives.

This last circus featured an Elephant spewing pips all over the place
and all was going well until we ran banged into structure at the Daily Pivot
and then Godzilla showed up, scared the elephant away and then the midgets
got COMPLETELY out of hand. That's when I asked the bearded lady if
I could see under her dress and she gave me such a slap !

That's what's really going on at...
  • #22,766
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:40am Mar 14, 2011 1:40am
Quoting toshi
Don't be sorry...

After all these years, nobody listens to me anyway .

But the truth is: perception IS reality, at least until the next circus arrives.

This last circus featured an Elephant spewing pips all over the place
and all was going well until we ran banged into structure at the Daily Pivot
and then Godzilla showed up, scared the elephant away and then the midgets
got COMPLETELY out of hand. That's when I asked the bearded lady if
I could see under her dress and she gave me such a slap !

That's what's really going on at the BOJ.

ROFL

That was a hilarious explanation of what's going on lolol


btw you still in your long position?
  • #22,767
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:43am Mar 14, 2011 1:43am
Quoting ts63
the liquidity provided by the BOJ doesn't go into into yen intervention,
it goes to the banks so that they do not run out of cash in case depositors
rush to withdraw money, particularly in North East Japan.
But you're right.

And to be more accurate, even if the Bank of Japan gave the 13 largest banks
500 Trillion Yen (1 years worth of GDP) just to hold and cover potential
withdrawal requests over the near term, that in and of itself won't affect Yen.


Now, if the entire nation begins to glow in the dark, that will affect the yen
and a whole lot of other stuff. In fact, if something horrible like that happens,
the Elephant will not be back for an encore and the midgets will rule Asia.

Perish the thought.
  • #22,768
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:48am Mar 14, 2011 1:48am
godzilla is bull ?

it keeps hitting back from 82.05 then back to 11 then back to 05 . should i hold my position or try to get into a better position lets say .05 . ?



Quoting toshi
But you're right.

And to be more accurate, even if the Bank of Japan gave the 13 largest banks
500 Trillion Yen (1 years worth of GDP) just to hold and cover potential
withdrawal requests over the near term, that in and of itself won't affect Yen.


Now, if the entire nation begins to glow in the dark, that will affect the yen
and a whole lot of other stuff. In fact, if something horrible like that happens,
the Elephant will not be back for an encore and the midgets will rule Asia.

Perish the thought.
  • #22,769
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:54am Mar 14, 2011 1:54am
Quoting tankokjian
godzilla is bull ?

it keeps hitting back from 82.05 then back to 11 then back to 05 . should i hold my position or try to get into a better position lets say .05 . ?
Yeah it's been ranging in a tight zone for quite some time. There may be a breakout to either side when Tokyo is about to close.

I'm seriously considering unwinding my position at these levels. I'm not sure yet.
  • #22,770
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:55am Mar 14, 2011 1:55am
Quoting latropsudoxe
ROFL

That was a hilarious explanation of what's going on lolol


btw you still in your long position?

Yes, but have tightened up the stop.

Still see upside, but won't be stubborn.

Since all the political stuff is getting wrapped up for the day
and the technicals will start to work on this market, it's really all one can do.

refuse to let a profit turn loser, but if market gets itchy, let her scratch.
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  • #22,771
  • Mar 14, 2011 1:57am Mar 14, 2011 1:57am
Imminent earthquake warning for Nagano, Kanto

Source: RTRS
  • #22,772
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:00am Mar 14, 2011 2:00am
Quoting toshi
Yes, but have tightened up the stop.

Still see upside, but won't be stubborn.

Since all the political stuff is getting wrapped up for the day
and the technicals will start to work on this market, it's really all one can do.

refuse to let a profit turn loser, but if market gets itchy, let her scratch.
Well said. You should write a fucking book, your last few posts have been hilarious and well written lol...

I've tightened all my stops and am just watching. Seems like price is respecting the most recent down-trendline pretty well. It's testing it again right this moment.
  • #22,773
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:02am Mar 14, 2011 2:02am
Quoting fosking
Imminent earthquake warning for Nagano, Kanto

Source: RTRS
Post an article if you see one soon. I haven't come across that news yet.
  • #22,774
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:03am Mar 14, 2011 2:03am
Quoting latropsudoxe
Post an article if you see one soon. I haven't come across that news yet.
NVM, just saw it on Bloomberg. 4.0 quake.


----------


One more test of 82.25?????
  • #22,775
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:15am Mar 14, 2011 2:15am
Quoting latropsudoxe
Well said. You should write a fucking book, your last few posts have been hilarious and well written lol...
Dude, you're too kind.

I used to trade this pair quite a bit and at this time of the year (JP fiscal year end)
something quirky usually happens and even though can't always get it right,
once it shapes up on the charts, it's just there and you trade it.

So very often it will be like one day or two days movement that define the
trend for several months forward. Big fat fingers on the bar charts.
Every few months they show up and then it's on like Donkey Kong.
  • #22,776
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:22am Mar 14, 2011 2:22am
Quoting toshi
Dude, you're too kind.

I used to trade this pair quite a bit and at this time of the year (JP fiscal year end)
something quirky usually happens and even though can't always get it right,
once it shapes up on the charts, it's just there and you trade it.

So very often it will be like one day or two days movement that define the
trend for several months forward. Big fat fingers on the bar charts.
Every few months they show up and then it's on like Donkey Kong.
Ah, I see.

Well, USD/JPY failed to break 82.20 again for like the fifth or sixth time.

London opening soon. Got my stops tight and looking for a breakout.
  • #22,777
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:26am Mar 14, 2011 2:26am
Hey,

I really think shorting USDJPY is a really dangerous move and the market knows it. As soon as the US market opens, I expect to see investors going long on this pair with observing little or no strong resistance because of fear of shorting the pair. Perhaps the fundamentals now can push USDJPY above the 84-85 regions this week, if now within the next two days.

Japan is severely hit, as soon as they get back on their feet, they cannot accept a strong Yen given the aftermath of the disasters they are facing.

Lastly, I think the reason we had a stronger Yen at the market open was because of selling/short selling on the Nikkei Exchange. As soon as investors realized their cash in Yen is valuable, they sold it to other currencies.

Would like to read about what you think,
-Reza
  • #22,778
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:28am Mar 14, 2011 2:28am
Imminent earthquake warning for Central Japan

Source: Sources

BoJ's Shirakawa says the central bank can not underwrite JGBs under law; to keep injecting cash as needed - BOJ SPEAKER

All breaking through RANsquawk
  • #22,779
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:30am Mar 14, 2011 2:30am
Quoting fosking
Imminent earthquake warning for Central Japan

Source: Sources

BoJ's Shirakawa says the central bank can not underwrite JGBs under law; to keep injecting cash as needed - BOJ SPEAKER

All breaking through RANsquawk
probably linked to my above post "Imminent earthquake warning for Nagano, Kanto" which came through by Reuters.

edit; 4.8M aftershock shakes Northern Ibaraki prefecture - Reuters
  • #22,780
  • Mar 14, 2011 2:31am Mar 14, 2011 2:31am
any one using fibonacci at the moment ??


Quoting latropsudoxe
Ah, I see.

Well, USD/JPY failed to break 82.20 again for like the fifth or sixth time.

London opening soon. Got my stops tight and looking for a breakout.
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