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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,741
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:45pm Mar 13, 2011 10:45pm
i wonder who is buying yen at the moment. there seems to be a tug of war .

Quoting latropsudoxe
Agreed. I'm still bullish on the pair - especially after the 12 trillion yen injection. I'm just figuring out whether I should close my position now and get back in later or hold out and wait. I would hate to see this pair drop down to the 80 level before going back to 83.
  • #22,742
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:47pm Mar 13, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting tankokjian
i wonder who is buying yen at the moment. there seems to be a tug of war .
repatriations, margin calls, covers, options stops perhaps?
  • #22,743
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:51pm Mar 13, 2011 10:51pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
Agreed. I'm still bullish on the pair - especially after the 12 trillion yen injection. I'm just figuring out whether I should close my position now and get back in later or hold out and wait. I would hate to see this pair drop down to the 80 level before going back to 83.
Trailing stop mate. If it's at a point where you are rolling the dice, and have profit locked in... ehh why not! hehe.
  • #22,744
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:54pm Mar 13, 2011 10:54pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
I would hate to see this pair drop down to the 80 level before going back to 83.
I know, man. trading is so like that.

AND.....

sometimes it's like this:

Inserted Video
  • #22,745
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:56pm Mar 13, 2011 10:56pm
Terrifying Tsunami video:

Video:
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Helicopter aerial view video of giant tsunami waves

Video:
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  • #22,746
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:57pm Mar 13, 2011 10:57pm
Yes, definitely locking in profit as I ride this up!

LOL thanks for that vid. hilarious!



btw does anyone have a clue around what time boj is meeting today?
  • #22,747
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:01pm Mar 13, 2011 11:01pm
Ugh..those tsunami videos are so fucking tragic. I can't imagine what they are going through right now

Here's the most recent explosion at reactor no. 3:

Inserted Video
  • #22,748
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:20pm Mar 13, 2011 11:20pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
Yes, definitely locking in profit as I ride this up!

LOL thanks for that vid. hilarious!



btw does anyone have a clue around what time boj is meeting today?
target? or no target? it is at its 15 year low.
  • #22,749
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:22pm Mar 13, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting PipPipPip
target? or no target? it is at its 15 year low.
One of my targets hit at 82.00, next target is at 82.80 and one last lot without a target.
  • #22,750
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:24pm Mar 13, 2011 11:24pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
One of my targets hit at 82.00, next target is at 82.80 and one last lot without a target.
Just curious why it wouldn't be bullish now....
  • #22,751
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:29pm Mar 13, 2011 11:29pm
Quoting PipPipPip
Just curious why it wouldn't be bullish now....
I'm still bullish on the pair. I don't know how anyone can be bearish with the BOJ promising to inject $183 Billion (15 Trillion Yen).

The liquidity injection has been raised from 2 - 7 - 12 - and now 15 Trillion Yen, yet the USD/JPY isn't moving much on the news. In fact, the Yen has strengthened, albeit a small amount, since.

  • #22,752
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:40pm Mar 13, 2011 11:40pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
I'm still bullish on the pair. I don't know how anyone can be bearish with the BOJ promising to inject $183 Billion (15 Trillion Yen).

The liquidity injection has been raised from 2 - 7 - 12 - and now 15 Trillion Yen, yet the USD/JPY isn't moving much on the news. In fact, the Yen has strengthened, albeit a small amount, since.

THere's going to be alot of stop hunting, I think a lot of people with huge capital will keep selling into any strength until they bleed red, this is the 50/50 why large hedge funds regularly blow up, and there's definitely enough of them out there to counteract BoJ for a bit. However, remember when the US announced printing money Version 1? THe dollar didn't drop overnight, it's been a long drug out process that's still on going...so don't expect any sudden changes, it could yeah.....still go down easily on 80 as big money re-positions.
  • #22,753
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:46pm Mar 13, 2011 11:46pm
Yeah, I just figured the news itself would present a rally. I'm still managing the trade, I know there are a shit ton of stops at the 80 level and would hate to see the pair drop the 80 before heading to 83.

I'm waiting on the BOJ meeting.
  • #22,754
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:54pm Mar 13, 2011 11:54pm
noob question here, how does the injection of funds devalue the yen?
  • #22,755
  • Mar 14, 2011 12:02am Mar 14, 2011 12:02am
Quoting k3nnyz
noob question here, how does the injection of funds devalue the yen?
Think of interest rates. when interest rates are raised, an example would be due to unemployment decrease/employment increase. In turn, the economy means it has been getting a little healthier and a hike in rates only proves one thing.

Aside from Japan's interest rates already near ZERO. Now think of money being spent by the government. Spending money means taking out their reserves, or if needed, printing more. Either way, increasing supply to the market. Increase in supply = ?. You can fill in the blank. Depending how much of the yen they have in reserves compare to the purchase of treasuries they will need in foreign countries can effect not only the dollar, but also other dependents, such as china possibly. Well.... China funded US,thus both are now involved. There are so much more that Japan's catastrophe will have an effect overall in other countries.

From my point of view, this just reminds me of when the US took out billions to fund TARP, bail outs, etc.
Think of japan, they are taking out Billions, not millions, Billions. Do not forget that most of Japan's major manufactures (Honda, Nissan, Beer, FARMS(MAJOR) no more crops (importers will start hiking prices), seafood(Majority of fishermans are gone along with their boats), the sole bread winner of technology buildings and major companies that gross I believe 8% of their gdp has been WIPED. It was in one of the articles, forgot which one. But ya, 8% of Japan's GDP is wiped out, and that was in miyagi i think.

It is a pretty bad sight

EDIT: Millions, not trillions.
  • #22,756
  • Mar 14, 2011 12:03am Mar 14, 2011 12:03am
Quoting lolygagv2
THere's going to be alot of stop hunting, I think a lot of people with huge capital will keep selling into any strength until they bleed red, this is the 50/50 why large hedge funds regularly blow up, and there's definitely enough of them out there to counteract BoJ for a bit. However, remember when the US announced printing money Version 1? The dollar didn't drop overnight, it's been a long drug out process that's still on going...so don't expect any sudden changes, it could yeah.....still go down easily on 80 as big money re-positions.
I wouldn't call it stop hunting - this isn't a pair that usually sees a lot of that. There can be options covering and other reasons, but the ability to stop hunt drops off dramatically once New Zealand or Frankfurt aren't the timeframes in play.

And do not assume 'huge capital' will be selling into a rise. If the earthquake isn't a black swan event, there could be one provided by BoJ, or further disaster scenarios and news in the days ahead. BoJ has huge abilities, that would dwarf most independent or even connected players. Smart money didn't get there by being stupid and taking huge risks, when there are so many unknowns.

While there are various interests and powers in play on a pair like UJ, if BoJ assists in yen weakening, buying UJ can be just as profitable - taking it to a point - and then letting it come back down, or shorting it back down when things are clearer, more normalized, and without emotion. And remember, going long on it for a few hundred pips can be done by smart money - and if we can tag along - great - that's what BoJ will want you to do, since that's the direction they (may) want it to go.

I'm not making any predictions at this time, because the ambiguity is potentially big.
  • #22,757
  • Mar 14, 2011 12:13am Mar 14, 2011 12:13am
A former nuclear power plant designer has said Japan is facing an extremely grave crisis and called on the government to release more information, which he said was being suppressed. Masashi Goto told a news conference in Tokyo that one of the reactors at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant was “highly unstable”, and that if there was a meltdown the “consequences would be tremendous”. He said such an event might be very likely indeed. So far, the government has said a meltdown would not lead to a sizeable leak of radioactive materials.

Inserted Video



Volcano in southern Japan erupts


The Shinmoedake volcano on Japan's Kyushu island, after lying dormant for a couple of weeks, resumes activity in a blast heard miles away. It was unclear if the eruption was linked to Friday's massive earthquake in the north.

The Japanese weather agency has reported that a volcano in southern Japan began spewing ash and rock even as the country struggled to recover Sunday from the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami.

Japan's Meteorological Agency issued a warning Sunday that the Shinmoedake volcano resumed activity after lying dormant for a couple of weeks.

The volcano is on Kyushu island, about 950 miles from the epicenter of Friday's magnitude 9.0 earthquake, which devastated much of the country's northeastern coast.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...tory?track=rss
  • #22,758
  • Mar 14, 2011 12:13am Mar 14, 2011 12:13am
Looking to buy eur/jpy with a take profit #1 at 115.500 and Gbp/jpy to 133.40...I think long term the eur/jpy and Gbp/jpy is appreciating, but the market is a little shaky at this point, so I encourage using tight stops.
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  • #22,759
  • Mar 14, 2011 12:31am Mar 14, 2011 12:31am
Quoting latropsudoxe
I'm still bullish on the pair. I don't know how anyone can be bearish with the BOJ promising to inject $183 Billion (15 Trillion Yen).

The liquidity injection has been raised from 2 - 7 - 12 - and now 15 Trillion Yen, yet the USD/JPY isn't moving much on the news. In fact, the Yen has strengthened, albeit a small amount, since.

How can u b bullish after tht spike, dint your stop loss get hit ??
  • #22,760
  • Mar 14, 2011 12:54am Mar 14, 2011 12:54am
I can't find an article released yet, but the latest from my feed:

BOJ concludes one-day policy board meeting:

Keep interest rates at 0.1% (unanimous vote)

Asset buying to rise by 5 Trillion Yen to 30 Trillion Yen to keep sentiment from worsening

Production Activity will drop

Business Household sentiment hurt from quake


*Yet we are seeing a drop in the USD/JPY
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