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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,681
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:46pm Mar 13, 2011 6:46pm
Look at what happened with JPY after the '95 quake.

Also looks like 2.2% drop on the Nikkei: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...n-limited.html

Japan Futures Signal Drop as Quake’s Global Impact Seen Limited

March 13, 2011, 7:36 PM EDT
By Nick Gentle, Nikolaj Gammeltoft and Rita Nazareth

(See EXT2 <GO> for coverage of Japan’s earthquake.)
March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Japan are poised to fall when trading resumes today while investors said that barring a nuclear disaster, the country’s worst earthquake on record is unlikely to halt the two-year bull market in global equities.
Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures expiring in June dropped 2.2 percent to 9,785 in Chicago at 8:30 a.m. Tokyo time today and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures retreated 0.7 percent. Lost production from the Tohoku region where the quake struck might not be enough to spur a recession, Bank of America Corp. said. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters he’s ready to unleash “massive” liquidity starting this morning in Tokyo to assure financial stability.
  • #22,682
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:52pm Mar 13, 2011 6:52pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Forexstrah, do you expect that money to be going overseas into other currencies? It will likely get used up in domestic equity markets.
I was thinking in terms of basic supply and demand economics. And also the fact that the BoJ will see the negatives of a strong yen right now.
  • #22,683
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:55pm Mar 13, 2011 6:55pm
I don't think that BoJ's primary focus is on exports at the moment.

Again, look at what repatriation did after the '95 quake.
  • #22,684
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:57pm Mar 13, 2011 6:57pm
Quoting Beljevina
What an insanely good entry ... good on you! - Those bottom entries are difficult, since the last lows were soo long ago .. didn't get a chance to adjust my charts, lol, although what I capture in GY & EY was a gift!
I made more than my monthly goal with the market just open.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #22,685
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:03pm Mar 13, 2011 7:03pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I made more than my monthly goal with the market just open.

Shamu
I assume that you were adding in as price go down, as long as you are convicted that Yen is fundamentaly on strong base.

Just curious, what is position sizing, and interval of your adding as price dropping?
  • #22,686
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:03pm Mar 13, 2011 7:03pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Look at what happened with JPY after the '95 quake.

Also looks like 2.2% drop on the Nikkei:...
I agree. I don't know if you're the one who posted it, but someone posted a '95 Kobe USD/JPY chart. I'll have to look for it again, but I appreciated whoever posted that

One should also consider the other things that affected the USD/JPY at the time:

After the Kobe earthquake, USD/JPY initially rose, but this probably reflected Fed tightening (the rate hike in late January 1995) more than earthquake effects per se. In the next two months, of course, USD/JPY crashed, but it is worth noting that US monetary policy expectations made an about face (and the Fed cut in July 1995). Also, the Barings bankruptcy crashed the Nikkei, which forced huge repatriations. The Japanese financial system is probably less vulnerable to these disruptions now.

Full article here:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011...resilient-yen/
  • #22,687
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:06pm Mar 13, 2011 7:06pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I made more than my monthly goal with the market just open.

Shamu
Good job! I'm jealous of all those who got in on the recent bottom and rode the big move up within minutes! I got in just when the move slowed down at around 81.40. Props to all those who got in around 80.60!
  • #22,688
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:08pm Mar 13, 2011 7:08pm
Quoting neomn
I assume that you were adding in as price go down, as long as you are convicted that Yen is fundamentaly on strong base.

Just curious, what is position sizing, and interval of your adding as price dropping?
I didn't do any position sizing here, I just felt we had hit the bottom and bought massive.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #22,689
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:09pm Mar 13, 2011 7:09pm
I can't find an article at the moment, but this just came through on Bloomberg.

BOJ is injecting $86 Billion, 7 Trillion Yen worth of liquidity.

Tokyo is down after the open and the USD/JPY is up at 81.65 at the moment.
  • #22,690
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:11pm Mar 13, 2011 7:11pm
The Bank of Japan is adding 86 Billion dollar liquidity.....
  • #22,691
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:25pm Mar 13, 2011 7:25pm
Bloomberg just uploaded an article:

Bank of Japan Adds $86 Billion to Help Stabilize Markets After Earthquake


The Bank of Japan said it will pump 7 trillion yen ($86 billion) into the financial system to help stabilize the market after the nation’s biggest earthquake on record last week.


The emergency measure represents the bank’s first same-day repurchase operations since May, when the central bank added funds to help stabilize the market after the Greek debt crisis set off a plunge in stocks worldwide.


BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters late yesterday he’s ready to unleash “massive” liquidity starting this morning in Tokyo.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...arthquake.html



Just ran across Bloomberg: Circuit breakers put in on TSE
  • #22,692
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:26pm Mar 13, 2011 7:26pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I didn't do any position sizing here, I just felt we had hit the bottom and bought massive.

Shamu
dude nice ! i also sucked out about 50 pips entry 81.00 and closed 50, i hope it will go down again around 80,00 i will be long again.
consistency wins
  • #22,693
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:39pm Mar 13, 2011 7:39pm
the situation can't be compared with what happened back in 1995, at that time Japan was in economical war with the US something similar to what is going on with China in the last years.
I am not implying people should buy or sell yen.
no one know what is gonna happen, maybe (and hope not) one of those nuclear plants explode, no one know how yen will move then.
trade with minimum and don't over leverage because big jumps to both sides is possible anytime.
  • #22,694
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:44pm Mar 13, 2011 7:44pm
I think I've had enough. Good luck to all.

http://www.forexlive.com/172778/all/...japanese-stock

Foreign investors certain to sell Japanese stock

By Sean Lee || March 14, 2011 at 00:36 GMT
|| 0 comments || Add comment
Just as we have seen many interviews on the TV with Australian, German or American residents of Japan who’ve now decided to leave, I would imagine that many foreign investors in Japanese stockmarkets will be doing the same thing, in the short term at least.
This will have a negative effect on the JPY which might be enough to off-set much of the JPY inflows.
  • #22,695
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:52pm Mar 13, 2011 7:52pm
One of my targets hit at 82.00 I have a few more lots in, next target is 82.80.
  • #22,696
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:53pm Mar 13, 2011 7:53pm
Yen just giving all kinds of free pips out tonight... keep um coming!! Currently making a run for 82.253
  • #22,697
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:58pm Mar 13, 2011 7:58pm
I am off to sleep good luck for you all.
  • #22,698
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:58pm Mar 13, 2011 7:58pm
Quoting Venice
Yen just giving all kinds of free pips out tonight... keep um coming!! Currently making a run for 82.253
Yessss

Looks like it hit your target already of 82.253. That was fast.

I'm eye-ing 82.80, might close that lot a little earlier at 82.74-6 as there's some resistance up there. I have another lot without a target, willing to take it as high as it's willing to go!
  • #22,699
  • Mar 13, 2011 8:07pm Mar 13, 2011 8:07pm
Quoting latropsudoxe
Yessss

Looks like it hit your target already of 82.253. That was fast.

I'm eye-ing 82.80, might close that lot a little earlier at 82.74-6 as there's some resistance up there. I have another lot without a target, willing to take it as high as it's willing to go!
Yup, closed here just because Asia loves pivots. (actually took the slip to 82.40). This thing is just a stream boat tonight, but probably needs some breath and rest here for a second.
  • #22,700
  • Mar 13, 2011 8:08pm Mar 13, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting Venice
Yup, closed here just because Asia loves pivots. (actually took the slip to 82.40). This thing is just a stream boat tonight, but probably needs some breath and rest here for a second.
edit: wow, this is becoming a quick second... lol
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