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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,661
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:59pm Mar 13, 2011 3:59pm
Quoting toshi
With thousands feared dead, tens of billions of dollars (not yen) in damage,
many billions more in ancillary costs over time, world opinion on the side of
"do the humanitarian thing and give 'em a break", the BOJ could get away with
not just an intervention, but a revaluation to 85 or even close to 90 yen and
say 120 to 125 euro/yen and they COULD get away with it.
...........
Hope BOJ is reading this I am long on UJ.
  • #22,662
  • Mar 13, 2011 4:05pm Mar 13, 2011 4:05pm
Quoting PipMaxzz
Hope BOJ is reading this I am long on UJ.
The black helicopters are circling outside, so I think they're reading it right about now......
  • #22,663
  • Mar 13, 2011 4:29pm Mar 13, 2011 4:29pm
I'm long half a standard lot, but I'll add as PA develops.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #22,664
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:14pm Mar 13, 2011 5:14pm
That was nuts..
  • #22,665
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:16pm Mar 13, 2011 5:16pm
I almost missed it, fastest 100 pips on a sunday evening ever...
  • #22,666
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:17pm Mar 13, 2011 5:17pm
huge amount of money in one side... anyone could give some arguments?
  • #22,667
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:17pm Mar 13, 2011 5:17pm
Bought in heavy @ 80.70
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #22,668
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:28pm Mar 13, 2011 5:28pm
volcano. here is the reason...
  • #22,669
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:34pm Mar 13, 2011 5:34pm
Lol

A few hours trading and I have my weekly goal
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #22,670
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:39pm Mar 13, 2011 5:39pm
I MISSED THE MOVE

i'm long though..but i can't believe i missed the move by a few minutes
  • #22,671
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:03pm Mar 13, 2011 6:03pm
I fail to see how massive repatriation of capital is going to weaken the yen.
  • #22,672
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:07pm Mar 13, 2011 6:07pm
Some people say it can touch and probably pass the psychological thriller of 80.50 and then 80.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #22,673
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:08pm Mar 13, 2011 6:08pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Bought in heavy @ 80.70
What an insanely good entry ... good on you! - Those bottom entries are difficult, since the last lows were soo long ago .. didn't get a chance to adjust my charts, lol, although what I capture in GY & EY was a gift!
  • #22,674
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:14pm Mar 13, 2011 6:14pm
Bank of Japan Readies ’Massive’ Liquidity in Response to Quake


The Bank of Japan may today inject more short-term cash into the banking system after the nation’s most powerful earthquake on record, while keeping its asset- purchase plans unchanged as officials gauge the longer-term effect on the world’s third-largest economy.


Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters late yesterday he’s ready to unleash “massive” liquidity starting this morning in Tokyo, as the BOJ seeks to assure financial stability.


Economists said officials will likely decide to keep longer-term credit programs at a total of 35 trillion yen ($428 billion) when they meet today at 1 p.m. in Tokyo. The bank’s main interest rate has already been cut to almost zero as policy makers last year sought to end the nation’s deflation.


“Monetary policy will be unchanged, but they will probably pledge to provide ample liquidity,” said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. in Tokyo. Policy makers may also “establish an emergency lending facility to help financial institutions in Tohoku,” the northern region most damaged by the catastrophe, he said.


Shirakawa and his board could opt to accelerate asset purchases, including government bonds and exchange-traded funds, within the existing credit programs, particularly if the yen climbs and stocks tumble, said Masaaki Kanno, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, who used to work at the central bank.


Full article:



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...e-economy.html
  • #22,675
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:19pm Mar 13, 2011 6:19pm
BOJ's liquidity injections don't fix the carry trade unwinds that will likely take place after market open due to margin calls. The USDJPY is a big gap down from Friday's close in Japan.
  • #22,676
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:22pm Mar 13, 2011 6:22pm
[quote=latropsudoxe;4467927]Bank of Japan Readies ’Massive’ Liquidity in Response to Quake


The Bank of Japan may today inject more short-term cash into the banking system after the nation’s most powerful earthquake on record, while keeping its asset- purchase plans unchanged as officials gauge the longer-term effect on the world’s third-largest economy.


Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters late yesterday he’s ready to unleash “massive” liquidity starting this morning in Tokyo, as the BOJ seeks to assure financial stability.


So we may get a big pop back up from this today??
  • #22,677
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:29pm Mar 13, 2011 6:29pm
Forexstrah, do you expect that money to be going overseas into other currencies? It will likely get used up in domestic equity markets.
  • #22,678
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:36pm Mar 13, 2011 6:36pm
Quoting iflyjetzzz
BOJ's liquidity injections don't fix the carry trade unwinds that will likely take place after market open due to margin calls. The USDJPY is a big gap down from Friday's close in Japan.
The market is open since one hour at least, who would got a margine call did get it already!
and usually who trade carry trade they don't get margin call unless if they are new to trading.
  • #22,679
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:37pm Mar 13, 2011 6:37pm
Tokyo Stock Exchange opens in 23 minutes.
As far as margin calls, think about Japanese retail investors. If TSE gaps down considerably, there will be margin calls. Any individual with a FOREX account is looking at a 100 pip loss vs USD since Friday's close in Japan.
  • #22,680
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:44pm Mar 13, 2011 6:44pm
Even with massive repatriation and position unwinding, I cannot see the Yen continuing to strengthen or remain around the 80 handle. With positive news for the dollar and the obvious tragedy and economic damage in Japan, with the promise of the BOJ to unleash trillions of Yen - I am bullish on the USD/JPY.

I do agree that we can expect to see the Yen strengthen a bit (like we have Friday and today's open), but I don't expect to see the Yen at 80 and staying there.
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