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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,641
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:52am Mar 13, 2011 5:52am
Quoting Astroman
The thing that scares me the most about this is the nucleur reactors. I might be over reacting but this could end up being catastrophic. It is a purely emotional judgment that I am making but .....

I just don't see how this can benefit the YEN at the moment. Maybe I should leave emotions out of it but I can not help it at the present time.

thats right, everybody is focusing on the quake, but the nuclear reactor fukushima is the far bigger issue at the moment, earthquakes are catastrophic but they happen, but a nuclear meltdown would be a scenario i dont even want to imagine.

i dont think that the yen is going to benefit from all this, because its already on a level that the BOJ is unhappy with, all the down moves (if they happen) will be shorttermed - imho

hopefully everything turns out good for the japanese people.
consistency wins
  • #22,642
  • Mar 13, 2011 6:13am Mar 13, 2011 6:13am
I agree with everything that you have said especially our wishes that the Japenese people will get through this. I recently read that out of a town of 24,000...10,000 are missing.

There are so called experts stating this is Chernobyl like at best with things getting possible worse. As much as I hate to say it....this can be one of the worst disasters ever.

As of now I am extremely pessimistic on the whole situation.

Take care.
  • #22,643
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:02am Mar 13, 2011 7:02am
"The yen typically climbs during crises because Japan’s current- account surplus means it doesn’t need foreign funding and because of the likelihood of Japanese investors repatriating assets. Japan holds $882.3 billion of Treasuries, the highest tally after China, according to the U.S. Treasury." - bloomberg.com the yen won’t strengthen past 80, citing the likelihood of authorities selling the currency to stem gains - bloomberg.com
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  • #22,644
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:07am Mar 13, 2011 7:07am
what a weekend! i'm in korea, right next door..my heart goes out for the japanese right now. i have a lot of friends over there, fortunately they are all safe.

9.1 earthquake, 4th largest ever, tsunami, nuclear reactors on the brink of meltdown, deathtoll over a thousand - expected death toll is at 10,000, thousands missing, tens of thousands evacuated..

friday's sharp move down for the UJ was interesting. i didn't put in any trades when i saw the news. i'm probably going to trade tomorrow morning (monday), though japan is closed. i am a technical trader but i can't help but be swayed by this event. i'm looking to long usd/jpy at an ideal level but we'll see.

i hope japan recovers soon they put out an estimate that theres a 70% chance that there will be another 7.0+ earthquake in the next 3 days
  • #22,645
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:09am Mar 13, 2011 7:09am
Quoting Astroman
I agree with everything that you have said especially our wishes that the Japenese people will get through this. I recently read that out of a town of 24,000...10,000 are missing.

There are so called experts stating this is Chernobyl like at best with things getting possible worse. As much as I hate to say it....this can be one of the worst disasters ever.

As of now I am extremely pessimistic on the whole situation.

Take care.
If it was like Chernobyl all the reactors would have exploded,all the country would be flat to the ground and facing nuclear radiation all over the place.The Japanese are really advanced in technology way beyond any country in western world and are prepared to deal better with such nature.As for yen as history shows last earthquake in 1995 seen yen rising 18% against dollar,so i wouldnt expect buch action from BOJ unless it goes into 79 zone.
  • #22,646
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:20am Mar 13, 2011 7:20am
Just a quick analysis of the JPY crosses. Price action since the quake.

down USDJPY CADJPYCHFJPY HKDJPY
down then up same level AUDJPYHUFJPYNZDJPY
down but rising halfway DKKJPYEURJPYNOKJPY
down but rising GBPJPYMXNJPY

will be watching the pairs in the same timezone - AUD and NZD.

I believe there is more to play out in this before the inevitable fall of JPY.
  • #22,647
  • Mar 13, 2011 7:40am Mar 13, 2011 7:40am
CNBC's Simon Hobbs explains why the yen would rise on the earthquake and tsunami affecting the region


http://news.yahoo.com/video/business...thens-24489512
  • #22,648
  • Mar 13, 2011 9:06am Mar 13, 2011 9:06am
Quoting tankokjian
CNBC's Simon Hobbs explains why the yen would rise on the earthquake and tsunami affecting the region


http://news.yahoo.com/video/business...thens-24489512
It's not like its some mystery on why the Yen rose, the question is if there will enough Central Bank intervention to push the USD/JPY up again. The government implementing a "stimulus/Recovery" package will be very good for japans economic growth and for gdp data.

Repatriation took care of a lot of the yens growth, now they need to deflate the yens value again otherwise exports will be hurt.
  • #22,649
  • Mar 13, 2011 9:44am Mar 13, 2011 9:44am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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possible right shoulder topped out on Friday


those base trendlines could be a neckline ............
  • #22,650
  • Mar 13, 2011 10:15am Mar 13, 2011 10:15am
I am new to this Forum, but the "special" Situation called me in here

Japan Institutions and financial Companies ( around the World ) could be in need to sell huge Parts of their foreign Assets and buy JPY to start covering up the huge Damage done to the Country - demand in JPY will last for a longer Period, specially for a much, much longer Time, if the nuclear Plants can´t be brought under control

But maybe you all have a different Ponit of View and Source of Information, so please share it
  • #22,651
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:39am Mar 13, 2011 11:39am
USDJPY buy at the demand zone if there is a retest or a gap down into demand. Will be playing this on daily and 4hr charts for now until shit stabilizes:
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  • #22,652
  • Mar 13, 2011 11:41am Mar 13, 2011 11:41am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


possible right shoulder topped out on Friday


those base trendlines could be a neckline ............
strong support,, when is break, so is strong bearish,, CMIIW
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #22,653
  • Mar 13, 2011 12:08pm Mar 13, 2011 12:08pm
Quoting andelumut
strong support,, when is break, so is strong bearish,, CMIIW

yes, depends how strong it breaks south .......... then will be resistance, but from a RR view point of view, will be buying if/when bullish PA presents itself

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  • #22,654
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:37pm Mar 13, 2011 1:37pm
81.65 is short term low for USD/JPY, as Japanese authorities have indicated large dosage of QE to stem further yen strength.
  • #22,655
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:54pm Mar 13, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting wwwin
81.65 is short term low for USD/JPY, as Japanese authorities have indicated large dosage of QE to stem further yen strength.
They are unlikely to stem Yen strength as this would severely fuck with their GDP. Strong Yen = Death for their exports.

Its plausible though if you assume theyll need to import a lot more during the rebuilding phase.
  • #22,656
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:10pm Mar 13, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting Orbital
They are unlikely to stem Yen strength as this would severely fuck with their GDP. Strong Yen = Death for their exports.

Its plausible though if you assume theyll need to import a lot more during the rebuilding phase.
Stem means to weaken not to strengthen yen
  • #22,657
  • Mar 13, 2011 2:33pm Mar 13, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting wwwin
Stem means to weaken not to strengthen yen
My bad
  • #22,658
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:42pm Mar 13, 2011 3:42pm
Last time when Japs wanted to interfere a few months back, there were resistances from around the world on currency devaluation. Now with the tragedy at the background, this is the right time with correct reason for BOJ to push UJ to a new high. Agree?
  • #22,659
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:50pm Mar 13, 2011 3:50pm
In my opinion USDJPY will go up, and possibly fly higher, from here for the following reasons:

1- While the devastation from the earthquake and the tsunami is huge and will require a major rebuilding that may spur growth this time, unlike 1995, the Yen will not gain strength because of obvious reasons that we are in different economic conditions with Japan having an all time high national debt and with the whole world economy still in a recession and with Europe not out of the woods by a long shot.

2-The bigger issue right now, potentially much bigger than what we've seen so far, is the nuclear issue. The market may try to speculate what is in store and hence hammer the Yen. Also note that unlike the earthquake and the tsunami any damage by a complete melting of the rods will spread far beyond Japan and would be much more devastating economically. But also such damages will not involve rebuilding and hence will not contribute to spurring of economic growth. To the contrary, a much larger area will have to be evacuated for a protracted time, as witness by some counties even evacuating their citizens from Tokyo overnight.

3-Yen, unlike back in 1995, is already near all time lows.

4-The safe heaven presumption given to Yen for the past 2-3 years most likely will vanish with current events.

5- Central Bank of Japan has already announced plan to flood the market with "MASSIVE" amount of Yen. In my view this alone will weaken yen significantly. Just look at what happened to $ when Feds flooded the market over this past 2-3 years.

Any replies to my points is welcomed.
  • #22,660
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:55pm Mar 13, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting PipMaxzz
Last time when Japs wanted to interfere a few months back, there were resistances from around the world on currency devaluation.
Now with the tragedy at the background, this is the right time with correct reason for BOJ to push UJ up to a higher level. Agree?
With thousands feared dead, tens of billions of dollars (not yen) in damage,
many billions more in ancillary costs over time, world opinion on the side of
"do the humanitarian thing and give 'em a break", the BOJ could get away with
not just an intervention, but a revaluation to 85 or even close to 90 yen and
say 120 to 125 euro/yen and they COULD get away with it.

Even though it has nothing to do with helping the people suffering from the natural disaster.
It would be a quick and dirty way to adjust the valuations of Dollar and Euro assets
going into the new fiscal year (starting April 1) which have suffered in the
past few months or so and get back all the lost value in domestic portfolios
exposed to those currencies - especially the USD.

When governments lose people, it's a bad thing, but it happens.
When they lose money, however, now that is unacceptable.

Don't put anything past the BOJ. They make up the rules as they go.
That have the opportunity, the motive and the weapon....
They could make a "killing".....

Edit: for what it's worth.... we do the same thing here in the US.
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