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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,621
  • Mar 12, 2011 2:15am Mar 12, 2011 2:15am
Upcoming week will certainly be volatile if only for the Yen pairs, however we all know tons of instruments worldwide are financed via Yen funding "windows" aka carry trade so this volatility will spill into other pairs as well.


Everyone is too bearish the Yen atm, as I said a few nights back and keep expressing. Shorting the yen is not a get rich scheme.

Long term I'm bullish but short term not quite so. Under-capitlized longs need to be flushed out on a breach of 80.XX


my play for the upcoming week.

Buy quite a few Yen against strategic cross pairs. After the dust has settled of course.

Japanese investors/citizens will be looking to bring their money back home.
  • #22,622
  • Mar 12, 2011 2:30am Mar 12, 2011 2:30am
Quoting tankokjian
someone is driving the YEN up .....sky up and letting it fall twice as hard.
The so called "big boys" ( I hate that term but yet I use it ). They can ride this thing forever unlike us normal folk. They are bleeding us dry, eating up our LONGS so we have no choice but to exit so we do not take a an unacceptable loss. When they are done...up it goes!
  • #22,623
  • Mar 12, 2011 2:35am Mar 12, 2011 2:35am
Quoting Warwick

Japanese investors/citizens will be looking to bring their money back home.
Good for them. How much has left in the first place.

How much more are they bringing home?

Did any significant number actually leave?

Last I heard there was a leak.

Be patient LONGS!
  • #22,624
  • Mar 12, 2011 2:57am Mar 12, 2011 2:57am
Quoting Astroman
Good for them. How much has left in the first place.

How much more are they bringing home?

Did any significant number actually leave?

Last I heard there was a leak.

Be patient LONGS!

Perhaps you don't quite understand Japan's role in the global economy, particularly, global finance and liquidity levels in money markets.

but all of the lingo is crap if we can't trade it.

Your Bullish U/J, im semi-bearish... thats how markets work. Although overall im strongly bullish on the Dollar.
  • #22,625
  • Mar 12, 2011 3:15am Mar 12, 2011 3:15am
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  • #22,626
  • Mar 12, 2011 5:46am Mar 12, 2011 5:46am
Technically Yen is perfectly following the Triangle shown in my chart.
As long as it doesn't break out south, I'm bullish on this pair at the moment.
Note how flat UY was Friday US session.
That prices in the enormous amount of Yens to be spent in their earthquake recovery.
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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #22,627
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:41am Mar 12, 2011 10:41am
technical analysis are of no importance to the chart now , rather using behavior technical analysis.
Quoting KillerWhale
Technically Yen is perfectly following the Triangle shown in my chart.
As long as it doesn't break out south, I'm bullish on this pair at the moment.
Note how flat UY wo thas Friday US session.
That prices in the enormous amount of Yens to be spent in their earthquake recovery.
  • #22,628
  • Mar 12, 2011 11:38am Mar 12, 2011 11:38am
I am pretty sure that we will see the 1994 of 79.67 broken before any rally. On the bullish side, if 84.00 is taken out then we could see 86.00 to 87.00 before the 1994 lows are taken out.
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  • #22,629
  • Mar 12, 2011 5:35pm Mar 12, 2011 5:35pm
Quoting Astroman
The so called "big boys" ( I hate that term but yet I use it ). They can ride this thing forever unlike us normal folk. They are bleeding us dry, eating up our LONGS so we have no choice but to exit so we do not take a an unacceptable loss. When they are done...up it goes!
You are right until some extent, there are ofcourse things such as exigent circumstances when Central Banks intervene. The big 5 Banks usually have enough capital to move a price gradually 100-300 pips in any direction they want to.

A Central bank is able to move a currency within a heartbeat in the direction of 200-300 pips. Unless ofcourse you are talking about Macro funds such as Blackrock which hold several hundred billion (leveraged) in assets.

Next week is going to be a mess, ive discussed this with 3 traders i have a very deep seated respect for because they have taught me almost everything i know about trading

The smart play right now is to bet long on the euro, 2-3 lots and gradually setup your positions with minilots, average into your position, pick a demand level and start buying slowly.

Unless you are a scalper like i am playing for 2-3 pips per trade you should not try or even attempt to swingtrade anything right now.

Eurozone news (including bonds)
USD news Economy and Fed/treasury based
Japan news (Nuclear reactor, stock markets etc)

will give larger players the opportunity to hunt your stops and spike you out of your trades.

Just tread carefully, once im out of my silver trade in profit ill beginn averaging into the Yen
  • #22,630
  • Mar 12, 2011 6:10pm Mar 12, 2011 6:10pm
[quote=Orbital;4466528
A Central bank is able to move a currency within a heartbeat in the direction of 200-300 pips. Unless ofcourse you are talking about Macro funds such as Blackrock which hold several hundred billion (leveraged) in assets.

Next week is going to be a mess
[/quote]

Speaking of which!

BOJ plans muliti-trillion dollar yen operation Monday.......plus the unfolding nuclear drama.....my guess is we'll get a mandatory statement by monday to quell the markets, but the real drama won't be over yet.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42041877?__so...S*tag*&par=RSS
  • #22,631
  • Mar 12, 2011 6:14pm Mar 12, 2011 6:14pm
Quoting Astroman
90 seems like a far off wishful dream. It will get there eventually...a year or so from now..maybee. For now I am long and not just because it is at such historically price. I am getting more and more Bullish on the USD as time goes but. Have seem some very encouraging numbers and employment coming out of a recession is always a lagging number.

We have had now 4 months of revisions to the upside on employment data (typical of an economy on the rebound to the upside) which leads me to believe better times are right near, very near.

I am still...
with the disaster, I would tend to buy yen,,
because all the aid and improvement activities in Japan will use the yen,
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #22,632
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:24pm Mar 12, 2011 10:24pm
Quoting andelumut
with the disaster, I would tend to buy yen,,
because all the aid and improvement activities in Japan will use the yen,

Rumour market will be flooded with yen tomorrow by the BoJ...what will that do to this pair?? Any thoughts?? I am guessing greater supply means less value...hence a big move up for this pair??
  • #22,633
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:47pm Mar 12, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting forexstrah
Rumour market will be flooded with yen tomorrow by the BoJ...what will that do to this pair?? Any thoughts?? I am guessing greater supply means less value...hence a big move up for this pair??
This will relate to system demand and supply,
maybe I'll SELL USDJPY,
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #22,634
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:50pm Mar 12, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting forexstrah
Rumour market will be flooded with yen tomorrow by the BoJ...what will that do to this pair?? Any thoughts?? I am guessing greater supply means less value...hence a big move up for this pair??
my understanding is that UJ spike move down is caused by repatriation.. which could bring this pair to the all time low level. The bull case for UJ is the recovery would cost billions and would send it higher as insurance money pour in and BOJ cough out stimulus. I prefer to buy UJ.
  • #22,635
  • Mar 12, 2011 11:42pm Mar 12, 2011 11:42pm
Quoting iezzzwan
my understanding is that UJ spike move down is caused by repatriation.. which could bring this pair to the all time low level. The bull case for UJ is the recovery would cost billions and would send it higher as insurance money pour in and BOJ cough out stimulus. I prefer to buy UJ.
But look at the graph after the 1995 earthquake. The UJ downward trend continued for months.
  • #22,636
  • Mar 13, 2011 12:28am Mar 13, 2011 12:28am
Quoting PipMaxzz
But look at the graph after the 1995 earthquake. The UJ downward trend continued for months.
1995 is different imho.. Kobe earthqquake impact on the economy is bigger and the scenario is different pre 2000. BOJ looking to defend around 80.0 level.. stimulus could send this higher in an instant. Japs economy needs a boost. depends really on your system.. my system tells me to look to buy.
  • #22,637
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:12am Mar 13, 2011 1:12am
Some brokers suspended temporary trade on all symbols with Japanese yen (JPY) ,, This measure is assumed in order to avoid our clients of possible losses of funds".Trade on the symbols with Japanese yen (JPY) will be renewed after clarification of situation and restoration of regular work in Japan’s financial markets"
  • #22,638
  • Mar 13, 2011 1:46am Mar 13, 2011 1:46am
Quoting iezzzwan
1995 is different imho.. Kobe earthqquake impact on the economy is bigger and the scenario is different pre 2000. BOJ looking to defend around 80.0 level.. stimulus could send this higher in an instant. Japs economy needs a boost. depends really on your system.. my system tells me to look to buy.

Apparently, Japan needs to spend more for recovery; Just BUY...
  • #22,639
  • Mar 13, 2011 3:21am Mar 13, 2011 3:21am
The thing that scares me the most about this is the nucleur reactors. I might be over reacting but this could end up being catastrophic. It is a purely emotional judgment that I am making but .....

I just don't see how this can benefit the YEN at the moment. Maybe I should leave emotions out of it but I can not help it at the present time.
  • #22,640
  • Mar 13, 2011 5:19am Mar 13, 2011 5:19am
I agree with Astroman, there are extra risks involved. Also, Japan is exporting economy, BOJ will start doing something if yen appreciates a lot more. I am short yen in the long run, don't see how rebuilding could benefit yen distinctively. People just tend to have habits looking back and thinking: 'oh 1995 was like this, i'll do the same!' and i see more natural disasters coming, get ready your shorts.
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