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  • #405,421
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:53pm Mar 11, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
its been one-way action for a good five hours now...
The eu is saved.
  • #405,422
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:55pm Mar 11, 2011 1:55pm
Feels like it will take some time to reach 1.3670.....ok..I can be very patient...
  • #405,423
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:57pm Mar 11, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
feels like even 3932/41 is possible...

ps I have 3915 just ahead of that...
I'm trying to understand how you see these levels, I'm failing... I guess fundies and news over-ride and technical levels right? This certainly seems over-extended to me on a technical side, no fibo retracement to even 30% happened...

I've majorly failed today... back to work (reading, studying)

Edit: I'm not sure, long stopped out, but didn't take a long because of the lack of retracement... though there was consolidation just under 3885
  • #405,424
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:57pm Mar 11, 2011 1:57pm
Quoting fxpreacher
The eu is saved.

Then why you selling it?

There is a big correction in the making, look at Port 5-yr, now at 8, up 2% this week alone, CDS touching 500bps, Greece at 1,000.

Today there was only one thought in trader's minds and that were the horrible pictures on CNN/FOX/BBC.

Next week is an entirely different story and there is a huge fundie trade being build in the background.

Spend this weekend going over your history and watch CDS/debt/spreads and see what is in the making.
  • #405,425
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:58pm Mar 11, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting fldash
I'm trying to understand how you see these levels, I'm failing... I guess fundies and news over-ride and technical levels right? This certainly seems over-extended to me on a technical side, no fibo retracement to even 30% happened...

I've majorly failed today... back to work (reading, studying)

Edit: I'm not sure, long stopped out, but didn't take a long because of the lack of retracement... though there was consolidation just under 3885

When fundies and techs pull in the same direction you will not get a retrace of any significance and your fib tool is about as useful as a chocolate teacup.

Know when to use what and why.
  • #405,426
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:59pm Mar 11, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting cloggie
Then why you selling it?

There is a big correction in the making, look at Port 5-yr, now at 8, up 2% this week alone, CDS touching 500bps, Greece at 1,000.

Today there was only one thought in trader's minds and that were the horrible pictures on CNN/FOX/BBC.

Next week is an entirely different story and there is a huge fundie trade being build in the background.

Spend this weekend going over your history and watch CDS/debt/spreads and see what is in the making.
The greeks hit 17% today.
  • #405,427
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:00pm Mar 11, 2011 2:00pm
Quoting cloggie
Then why you selling it?

There is a big correction in the making, look at Port 5-yr, now at 8, up 2% this week alone, CDS touching 500bps, Greece at 1,000.

Today there was only one thought in trader's minds and that were the horrible pictures on CNN/FOC/BBC.

Next week is an entirely different story and there is a huge fundie trade being build in the background.

Spend this weekend going over your history and watch CDS/debt/spreads and see what is in the making.
I'm game. What's your eu target then? I'm surely not well versed in fundies to be sure but I like 1. something by the end of summer.
  • #405,428
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:03pm Mar 11, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting cloggie
When fundies and techs pull in the same direction you will not get a retrace of any significance and your fib tool is about as useful as a chocolate teacup.

Know when to use what and why.
I understand the analogy, but you know that a chocolate teacup is a poodle & a dessert right?

http://www.ehow.com/how_4882840_make...-desserts.html

...
Attached Image
  • #405,429
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:03pm Mar 11, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting PriceVolume
The greeks hit 17% today.

I know, but that does not matter anymore, (Greek CDS over 1,000, just imagine, that will bring their rate to over 30%)

The next big fundie trade is when Portugal needs a bailout and the FI boys have been quietly working this week to bring that one to the brink.

Portugal is bankrupt and there is nothing they can do about it, the train is in motion and has left them behind in the station.
  • #405,430
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:03pm Mar 11, 2011 2:03pm
http://globalmarkets.anyoption.com/t...-eur-collapse/
  • #405,431
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:06pm Mar 11, 2011 2:06pm
Quoting fxpreacher
I'm game. What's your eu target then? I'm surely not well versed in fundies to be sure but I like 1. something by the end of summer.

The euro is fecked. They will keep trying to manipulate the sh!t out of it, but the yields speak for themselves and nobody in the EU can stop that, a vehicle to do so has not been invented yet.

The only hope for the Euro is default and restructure, euro countries just need to give up on the PIGS, trying to save them is futile. They made the mess themselves, let them stew. If some tough measures are not made this year it will be the end of the euro and parity is the last thing to worry about.

The only thing that can save the pair is the US and the dollar, they are not that much better of, we are in a race between two ugly sisters and the euro is losing.
  • #405,432
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:07pm Mar 11, 2011 2:07pm
Ah well, am off again, just wanted to see how many more muppets have been trying to sell this one since I last logged on.

No dissapointment there I see.
  • #405,433
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:08pm Mar 11, 2011 2:08pm
Quoting cloggie
The euro is fecked. They will keep trying to manipulate the sh!t out of it, but the yields speak for themselves and nobody in the EU can stop that, a vehicle to do so has not been invented yet.

The only hope for the Euro is default and restructure, euro countries just need to give up on the PIGS, trying to save them is futile. They made the mess themselves, let them stew. If some tough measures are not made this year it will be the end of the euro and parity is the last thing to worry about.

The only think that can save the pair is the US and...
I may not be getting it then. I thought you were bullish on the eu. I'm lost. sorry.
  • #405,434
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:09pm Mar 11, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting cloggie
Ah well, am off again, just wanted to see how many more muppets have been trying to sell this one since I last logged on.

No dissapointment there I see.
Muppet number 1 reporting for duty. Selling heavily here.
  • #405,435
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:09pm Mar 11, 2011 2:09pm
Quoting fxpreacher
I may not be getting it then. I thought you were bullish on the eu. I'm lost. sorry.

Today's trade has nothing to do with the euro. There are 6 different directions a pair can go. Today was entirely dollar driven. Being bullish on a pair for a day, has nothing to do with an outlook of half the pair.
  • #405,436
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:10pm Mar 11, 2011 2:10pm
Quoting cloggie
Trading can be so simple as long as you don't think that your 10 dollars is going to make 100's of billions sit up, pay attention and follow you.

Cloggie, your right when you said it's our natural instinct to try to balance things out but the market uses it's might to take advantage of that instinct.

I guess the rule on the market is "Might Makes Right".
  • #405,437
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:11pm Mar 11, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting fxpreacher
Muppet number 1 reporting for duty. Selling heavily here.

This late at night? Why bother, go have a drink, watch TV, download some stuff you don't want your mum to see.

You may get a bit of correction as we are so close to 3915, but not a setup I would entertain.
  • #405,438
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:11pm Mar 11, 2011 2:11pm
Quoting AlexC
Cloggie, your right when you said it's our natural instinct to try to balance things out .

If you can truly, truly get your head around that one, you are better of then 90% here.
  • #405,439
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:20pm Mar 11, 2011 2:20pm
Cloggie,

Thanks for your countless insights...I only had a few moments to read a few. Are you saying EURO will drop then?

I'm simply tracking price action. On 4hr, I see it made a new lower high....I figure so long as it doesn't take out the previous high, I can still target for shorts....

Just trying to get the sentiment of a fundie trader...thanks again.

Quoting cloggie
The euro is fecked. They will keep trying to manipulate the sh!t out of it, but the yields speak for themselves and nobody in the EU can stop that, a vehicle to do so has not been invented yet.

The only hope for the Euro is default and restructure, euro countries just need to give up on the PIGS, trying to save them is futile. They made the mess themselves, let them stew. If some tough measures are not made this year it will be the end of the euro and parity is the last thing to worry about.

The only thing that can save the pair is the US and...
  • #405,440
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:27pm Mar 11, 2011 2:27pm
Quoting myfxjournals
Cloggie,

Thanks for your countless insights...I only had a few moments to read a few. Are you saying EURO will drop then?

I'm simply tracking price action. On 4hr, I see it made a new lower high....I figure so long as it doesn't take out the previous high, I can still target for shorts....

Just trying to get the sentiment of a fundie trader...thanks again.

I am a fundie/news/price trader. Fundamentally the euro is done. That does not mean there are going to be no long opportunities, you need to look at both sides of the pair, each half can either go up, down or range, that is 6 conditions you need to evealuate to trade a pair. That's why 99.99% here just can't be bothered with the fundies.

I love them, today was a great example how a fundie trader can make a killing, he knows when all is aligned in the same direction and go in heavy.

Unless the US fails, the euro (fundamentally) is heading towards parity. That however is not something tradeable for the average retailer unless you plan to hold onto trades for months on end.

There are some days that fundies rule, if there is no news then I trade purely technical. Earlier this week I took a fundie trade with a technical target, it worked beautifully and collected 11 trades at 105 pips each. (posted it here)

Some days it can get frustrating as the fundies and techs are so opposite, then you look at the risk or correlated markets to see what the big boys are thinking.


I must go now, got some people to meet.


See y'all later and thanks for the entertainment.
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