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AUD/USD

  • #28,601
  • Mar 10, 2011 4:44pm Mar 10, 2011 4:44pm
Quoting Trn007
Good trades... which analyze technique are you use?


thx brother
Uhm don't really have a technique, just overall market sentiment and a few trendlines. Today for example A/U broke a 3 month trendline which is bearish most of the time. However, that doesn't mean A/U will fall of a cliff, like some are suggesting here. On the longer term (months) A/U is bullish and could certainly break 1.02. All depends on which TF you trade.

PS: That short trade bounced like 5-6 times on me, but I strongly believed A/U had to come back to parity (like it did 4 times already last few months), it's important to have a profit target. I don't like trailing stops. For my current long trade, as lolygagv2 mentioned, I'm only looking for max 100 pips, 50-60 most likely.
  • #28,602
  • Mar 10, 2011 10:58pm Mar 10, 2011 10:58pm
Parity lost again...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #28,603
  • Mar 10, 2011 11:02pm Mar 10, 2011 11:02pm
http://twurl.nl/ygaxtk
  • #28,604
  • Mar 11, 2011 12:38am Mar 11, 2011 12:38am
[quote=jezek5;4461906]
Quoting jezek5
Bought at 0005,sl 9980.
Good RR i guess.
Looking for a run up to 0050
first then i don't know.
Will buy more dips if they show up.
Cheers.

Jumped out at BE,don't like the PA,
something doesn't feel right so i'm
flat till tomorrow.
Back to looking at buy around 9980.
Cheers.
Got long at 9980 as planned,stop already
at BE.
Cheers.
Price is at 0015,resistance at 18,being Friday i might close soon.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,605
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:17am Mar 11, 2011 1:17am
[quote=jezek5;4463338]
Quoting jezek5

Got long at 9980 as planned,stop already
at BE.
Cheers.
Price is at 0015,resistance at 18,being Friday i might close soon.
Closed at 12 done for the week.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,606
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:56am Mar 11, 2011 1:56am
Japan earth quake after shocks a few hours away from Australia as reported by BBC News!
  • #28,607
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:23am Mar 11, 2011 2:23am
Quoting ely
Japan earth quake after shocks a few hours away from Australia as reported by BBC News!
There is no tsunami alert for Australia. I seriously doubt that there will be any direct effect of the earthquake on Australia.

However the Japan earthquake may affect Australia in a different way - exports, especially coal. Australia's coal exports to Japan dwarfs its coal exports to China. It is Australia's second largest iron ore market after China. Any serious damage to Japan's economy would not be good news for Australia's commodity exports. Actually it may not be good news for commodity prices in general.
  • #28,608
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:48am Mar 11, 2011 2:48am
Quoting Anne Clare
There is no tsunami alert for Australia. I seriously doubt that there will be any direct effect of the earthquake on Australia.

However the Japan earthquake may affect Australia in a different way - exports, especially coal. Australia's coal exports to Japan dwarfs its coal exports to China. It is Australia's second largest iron ore market after China. Any serious damage to Japan's economy would not be good news for Australia's commodity exports. Actually it may not be good news for commodity prices in general.
Hi Anne,i get your point very clearly ,just thinking,
not trying to argue but if they have to shut down nuclear
power plants cause of damage they might need more coal
rather than less,i guessing they have coal fire plants that
might get cranked up,also there will be a lot of rebuilding
to do so in the short run might not be so bad.
If feel bad thinking this way with all these poor people
with thier problems today,i've worked there in the past
and i really loved being there,great people.
I wish them my best.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,609
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:14am Mar 11, 2011 3:14am
The repercussions of the quake will be felt around the world with several regions in the Pacific Ocean issued with Tsunami warnings and all UK flights to Tokyo cancelled.
  • #28,610
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:17am Mar 11, 2011 3:17am
Quoting jezek5
Hi Anne,i get your point very clearly ,just thinking,
not trying to argue but if they have to shut down nuclear
power plants cause of damage they might need more coal
rather than less,i guessing they have coal fire plants that
might get cranked up,also there will be a lot of rebuilding
to do so in the short run might not be so bad.
If feel bad thinking this way with all these poor people
with thier problems today,i've worked there in the past
and i really loved being there,great people.
I wish them my best.
Cheers.
This is real bad,i'm done for the day,
if i offended anyone with my thought
prosess i am truly sorry.
See you next week.
Cheers.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,611
  • Edited 3:34am Mar 11, 2011 3:20am | Edited 3:34am
Quoting jezek5
Hi Anne,i get your point very clearly ,just thinking,
not trying to argue but if they have to shut down nuclear
power plants cause of damage they might need more coal
rather than less,i guessing they have coal fire plants that
might get cranked up,also there will be a lot of rebuilding
to do so in the short run might not be so bad.
If feel bad thinking this way with all these poor people
with thier problems today,i've worked there in the past
and i really loved being there,great people.
I wish them my best.
Cheers.
I don't mind if you argue with me. After all I always keep in mind that I could be horribly wrong

First, I haven't heard of any nuclear plants getting damaged. They have shut down but that is an automatic measure rather than a sign of damage. Also most of Japan's nuclear power plants are well away from the affected area - or at least that's what it looks like from the map on wikipedia.

Also, I'm not thinking of supply - I'm thinking of demand. Electricity tend to increase with economic activity. If economic activity goes down then demand for energy will go down.

Also, it is not just thermal coal - Japan is Australia's biggest market for high quality metallurgical coal, used in steel production (twice as big as China).

As an added bonus the quake hit an industrial area of Japan with lots of factories (Toyota, Honda, Sony, Fuji):

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...72A1HI20110311

I guess though we will get an indicator if coal futures start falling.
  • #28,612
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:41am Mar 11, 2011 3:41am
Looks like I was wrong about no damage to the nuclear power plants.

However it is a question of whether the substitiution of coal power will compensate for the drop in total demand.
  • #28,613
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:44am Mar 11, 2011 4:44am
Seems 9965 is going to resist for a while.

However we are going to have our dose of stupid cooked US data in 1 hour...

Let's see.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #28,614
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:51am Mar 11, 2011 4:51am
Hi Anne Clare,
do you check your private messages on forex factory often? I sent you a PM on Monday regarding selling silver, it has dropped over 1,000pips from the level I gave as resistance.
Check your PM and add me on your choice instant messenger.
Happy trading!
Meshach
  • #28,615
  • Edited 7:11am Mar 11, 2011 6:57am | Edited 7:11am
Quoting bazooki
Yes. Long @ 0.9995, but this is a counter-trade and a short-term trade (that is: a few days if profitable, or perhaps I'll exit tomorrow if it goes further down). I would not recommend counter-trades PS: I was short from 1.185 closed today 1.010. So I would wait for a good bounce then short it again. JMO.
Closed all my longs 1.0051, didn't expect to close it today already. Probably best to wait and trade next Monday again. See what news the weekend brings, see how Japan is trading Monday... I don't have a long/short bias at the moment. Leaning more towards the downside next week.

Quoting jezek5

Got long at 9980 as planned,stop already
at BE.
Cheers.
Price is at 0015,resistance at 18,being Friday i might close soon.
Nice entry! What are you looking for next?
  • #28,616
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:27am Mar 11, 2011 7:27am
Still holding my 1.0045 trade from yesterday. Sl @ 9950 was just avoided. Looking to take 1/2 off near the hourly downtend line at 1.0090. We'll see what happens!

Regards,
  • #28,617
  • Edited 8:04am Mar 11, 2011 7:38am | Edited 8:04am
Wow trading @ 1.0065 they really want you to get on the long train

Hi Fx-Petra, I also have a H1-trendline (tops of March 7th and 9th) but I have a price of 1.0077? 1.0090 would be way above that?

edit: It's almost at that H1/H4-trendline, about 1.0070-1.0075 . Could be a possible short, but I''m not trading anymore until after the weekend.
  • #28,618
  • Edited 8:15am Mar 11, 2011 8:10am | Edited 8:15am
hindsight is wonderful i never clicked the button
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #28,619
  • Edited 8:53am Mar 11, 2011 8:38am | Edited 8:53am
Quoting moonnblue
hindsight is wonderful i never clicked the button
I personally don't like drawing trendlines where candles cross/ignore the TL (left part), but the right part of your TL does look interesting and one to keep in mind. I have mine on a slightly different slope (bottoms of Jan20 and Feb22), with the last 2 trading days breaking that TL. Another one could be drawn with bottoms Jan20-Jan31. No clear TL I guess. Let's watch and see!

edit: A/U @ 1.0105??? Markets must really like earthquakes.
  • #28,620
  • Mar 11, 2011 8:53am Mar 11, 2011 8:53am
1.0106

F*cking incredible!
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