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  • #28,641
  • Mar 11, 2011 2:50pm Mar 11, 2011 2:50pm
Quoting ely
Manipulation to the max!

Seen these type of movements before in stocks, namely RIO, CCL etc.
Wollop and manipulate to take out the stops, shorts/longs...but eventually price correction takes hold.
The PA on AU isn't manipulation, but inexperienced traders of currency who normally trade stocks and think the two markets are the same, would of course think that.

AU is far more closely correlated with the S&P and DJIA than any other single factor. This is why "the sky is falling on AU" perspective is such utter bs.

But when a trader's ears are closed to anything other than his own jaundiced perspective borne of inexperience, it is far better to let market do the talking and slice him up repeatedly, cos the capacity to listen to more experienced and knowledgeable traders is overshadowed by the alarmists need for drama, and attention.

Yup, the Aussie is stuffed, the sky is falling, going to 1.086 for sure.

(Sorry Ely, but your posts have become such a source of hilarious contrarian comedy, am sure the nobular jocks are busy analysing stocks in the toilet..... what that alarmist signature line has to do with the currency market is another hilarious delight..... hope this helps.)
  • #28,642
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:25pm Mar 11, 2011 3:25pm
Quoting Martingale
the lack of retracement is impressive

True.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #28,643
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:33pm Mar 11, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting moonnblue
seems to be on the money
It would be nice to say yea i'm great,like a lot
of posters do on these threads but the fact is
that i was looking at this in a long term plan over
the next 6 months and more,Japan will have to spend billions
to sort out their problems,their GDP will go up and i think
countrys near by will benefit from this.
Thank you for flagging me up but what i said had nothing to do with todays rally.
Wish i'd held my long from thismorning though,i felt good
to get my entry right but i've had some problems on Fridays
in the past and didn't feel good about holding at the time.
Very well done to those that did.
Just look at that bullish outside bar,a thing of beauty.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,644
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:48pm Mar 11, 2011 3:48pm
Quoting jezek5
Just look at that bullish outside bar,a thing of beauty.

Yes it is indeed beautiful.

Government employee pay day on Thursday. Friday morning the overnight payments have cleared, pension and superannuation funds get a big injection of fresh capital. Hmmm, where to park it for maximum ROI.

Is there a vested interest in sending market north next week to capitalise on the investment?

Just a tad.

It isn't about fundamentals, it's about big money making more big money, and the cycle of capital flows into the market. Timing is everything.
  • #28,645
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:17pm Mar 11, 2011 4:17pm
Quoting Jade Gate
The PA on AU isn't manipulation, but inexperienced traders of currency who normally trade stocks and think the two markets are the same, would of course think that.

AU is far more closely correlated with the S&P and DJIA than any other single factor....
Obviuosly not been listening when the direction was the other way, which is why you were probably sat under a shelter weathering the storm...while i CLOSED most of my positions,as i had stated, and called my shorts were on at 1.250 (which i lowered)!!
Yes me old nooker...took me coins am sat waiting, sticking to the gameplan, with me short back on the table, if Mrs Market wants it.
As the saying goes, don't laugh too much as you have been doing, the market has a tendency to wipe that smile out of the fx market...for good

Keep a tab on that drop when it comes, like the miners this week (RIO), not many saw £6 knocked off while they were posting like you....infact they were not posting at all this week!!...you've obviously been given a breather to come out of your hole
Like i said earlier...looking to enter as this baby starts dancing before the storm
Safe trading...not the one to gloat on other peoples misfortunes...but to be honest, won't have any sympathy for traders like you.

Roll on Monday...
  • #28,646
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:22pm Mar 11, 2011 4:22pm
Quoting Martingale
the lack of retracement is impressive
This is what happens when fundamentals and technicals all point in the same direction. Driven, of course by unfortunate events.
  • #28,647
  • Mar 11, 2011 4:43pm Mar 11, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting Jade Gate
Yes it is indeed beautiful.

It isn't about fundamentals, it's about big money making more big money, and the cycle of capital flows into the market. Timing is everything.
Thanks Jade,and pleased to meet you, been thinking the same way for a while,in a
world of nearly zone percent return where does all the cash go to
get a return,as i understand the Aussie can be a bit thin to trade,
so moves like these can be expected.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,648
  • Edited 5:49pm Mar 11, 2011 5:10pm | Edited 5:49pm
AUD/USD back above parity, approaching daily highs
Mar 11 2011

The Dollar has fallen against the Kiwi and the Aussie in European hours and remains weak at Wall Street opening. AUD/USD rebounded at 0.9965/70, 2-week low, and jumped to the upside rising back above the parity level. At the moment is trading at 1.0020/30, approaching daily highs that lie at 1.0035/40.

According to the Kshitij Consultancy Services Team, the key support level at 0.9970 is holding so far but a break or a close below “would signal a trend reversal and it could be very bearish for Aussie going forward”.

Target 0.9200



Dollar fell after a report by CNBC
"The dollar hit new session lows, slipping against its major rivals, after CNBC reported tsunami waves hit the U.S"

Now from CNBC!!
Hawaii, California Hit by Tsunami—No Major Damage Yet
Friday, 11 Mar 2011
  • #28,649
  • Mar 11, 2011 5:16pm Mar 11, 2011 5:16pm
it looks as though there is more upside to this wave currently a 2 wave down is in progress I am looking for shorts on the top
  • #28,650
  • Mar 11, 2011 5:35pm Mar 11, 2011 5:35pm
Quoting jezek5
Another test of the lower line looks most likely.
Mind you we're still close to that 1.0150 line
i stole off Marc's chart,thanks Marc,daily closes above make
me still pretty bullish.
Does look like it needs to pull back a bit though.
Well if you want to know how to play this there's only one level
of interest 1.0150,i think we go higher.
Above post is 8 days old.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,651
  • Mar 11, 2011 6:25pm Mar 11, 2011 6:25pm
Quoting jezek5
Thanks Jade,and pleased to meet you, been thinking the same way for a while,in a
world of nearly zone percent return where does all the cash go to
get a return,as i understand the Aussie can be a bit thin to trade,
so moves like these can be expected.

yw jezek5

AU is considered one of the 5 "majors" because of the volume of heavily traded traffic

Here are some links to articles I've had published in Forex Journal perchance you want some light reading over the weekend

http://www.forexjournal.com/index.ph...ing&Itemid=488

http://www.forexjournal.com/index.ph...ing&Itemid=488

http://www.forexjournal.com/index.ph...ing&Itemid=488

http://www.forexjournal.com/index.ph...ing&Itemid=488
  • #28,652
  • Mar 11, 2011 7:42pm Mar 11, 2011 7:42pm
Quoting Jade Gate
....

great articles ..Thank you
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #28,653
  • Mar 11, 2011 9:21pm Mar 11, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting ely
Manipulation to the max!
Keeping to the game plan...will put the last lot back in from 1.0200 , or watch it down after manipulation to reality.

Seen these type of movements before in stocks, namely RIO, CCL etc.
Wollop and manipulate to take out the stops, shorts/longs...but eventually price correction takes hold.

Safe trading
Sanks
Since you are so knowledgeable and seem to know where the price is heading and you are able to make money, how about you tell us your trade entries and management next week, and so will I, right after you do.
On the basis of trading for the week, not what will happen in six months time....
Biggest joker
  • #28,654
  • Mar 12, 2011 3:54am Mar 12, 2011 3:54am
Does anyone think the aud/usd will pair again soon? On the hike above 1.0100 I took a rather long position and found myself sitting nicely, just want to know if its advisable to pull out whilst I am ahead or can I see further profits?
Raw Income FREE EA on the MQL5 market
  • #28,655
  • Edited 6:52am Mar 12, 2011 6:35am | Edited 6:52am
Let's look at the chart and see what it (and the rest of market) is telling us...

  1. Back inside the ascending wedge
  2. Approaching the nexis point
  3. Triple bounce on support @ .9960
  4. Intense consolidation since January - sizeable collection of compressed energy yet to be expended
  5. Oscillator pointing up (this is my own experimental "fish net" fib-based oscillator, utilises symmetry over pure fib mathematics, fx seems to like symmetry better)
  6. Capital flows are favourable (more money coming into the market next week)
  7. Dow is looking for more green territory
  8. Underlying bullish trend still in tact
  9. Geo-political events and news data have already been factored in
  10. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily (aka outside bar)
  11. The dollar on UCHF daily has experienced 4th rejection on the previous support trend line (support becomes resistance etc)
  12. UJ daily has an impressive bearish engulfing candle with price presently sitting just above the up trend-line - when this TL breaks, the north romp will be on for young and old (carry trade)
  13. EUR/AUD is finding some rejection at the 61.8 fib - risk appetite is returning

The balance of probabilities does seem very strongly stacked in favour of a hefty bull run on AU.

If we get some initial retracement back to the ascending wedge trend line, this could be a good buy opportunity. As always, manage the risk wisely. Use stops, cover your profits. Never any guarantees.

Good trading week to you all.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au daily.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #28,656
  • Mar 12, 2011 7:17am Mar 12, 2011 7:17am
Quoting Jade Gate
Let's look at the chart and see what it (and the rest of market) is telling us...[list][*]Back inside the ascending wedge[*]Approaching the nexis point[*]Triple bounce on support @ .9960[*]Intense consolidation since January - sizeable collection of compressed energy yet to be expended[*]Oscillator pointing up (this is my own experimental "fish net" fib-based oscillator, utilises symmetry over pure fib mathematics, fx seems to like symmetry better)[*]Capital flows are favourable (more money coming into the market next week)[*]Dow is looking...

Very nice analysis. I agree.

Thanks,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #28,657
  • Edited 2:31pm Mar 12, 2011 9:39am | Edited 2:31pm
Some lines which could be interesting (monthly, oh yeah!!!) and a brutal bullish Elliott count (science-fiction, I know...).

Notice also the thick green line where we are stalled, and the green dotted channel.

Ultimate POSSIBLE target: 1.1294 http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/images/smilies/eek.gif (138.20% of wave A, expanded flat):

http://www.prognosis.nl/support/faq/...rinciple3.html

Quote
Targets for wave B

In a Zigzag, wave B mostly retraces 38.2% or 61.8% of wave A. In a Flat, it is approximately equal to wave A. In an Expanded Flat, it usually will travel a distance of 138.2% of wave A.

However, I admit it's not mandatory to go up so far. For example, another possibility I'm considering could be: wave B = 123.6% of A = 1.0735

Regards,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD6.jpg Size: 359 KB
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #28,658
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:00am Mar 12, 2011 10:00am
Price stuck inside of Wedge Pattern on the Daily.

Anticipate a strong Breakout in either direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd0312.png Size: 48 KB
  • #28,659
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:17am Mar 12, 2011 10:17am
Quoting Jade Gate
Let's look at the chart and see what it (and the rest of market) is telling us...[list][*]Back inside the ascending wedge[*]Approaching the nexis point[*]Triple bounce on support @ .9960[*]Intense consolidation since January - sizeable collection of compressed energy yet to be expended[*]Oscillator pointing up (this is my own experimental "fish net" fib-based oscillator, utilises symmetry over pure fib mathematics, fx seems to like symmetry better)[*]Capital flows are favourable (more money coming into the market next week)[*]Dow is looking...
Hi Jade and thanks a lot for such a clear analysis,i'm in the same boat with you,i'm just not sure if anyone understands my ramblings.
Great entry you got there,i got in ,jumped out and was then looking to get back in when i looked at the pictures of Japan and the tsunami,i lost two good friends in the boxing day tsunami and seeing this brought back some painful memory's,my day was done.
Good luck with your trades.
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,660
  • Mar 12, 2011 10:24am Mar 12, 2011 10:24am
Quoting baron193
Since you are so knowledgeable and seem to know where the price is heading and you are able to make money, how about you tell us your trade entries and management next week, and so will I, right after you do.
On the basis of trading for the week, not what will happen in six months time....
I'm not ely.... but let's give this a shot. Anyone can see that the 9970 area has become strong support. After that, 9800. To the topside we have 1.0200 and 1.0250. Therefore:

1. Longs only until a daily close below 9800
2. Buy dips. I will buy in the following areas. My postion size is 1 lot:
-- 1/2 postion between 1.0080 and 1.0100
-- 1/2 postion near parity
-- 2 full lots near 9970 (close one on a daily close below 9940)
-- 1 full lot near 9860
-- 2 full lots @ 9810
Emergency stop @ 9750 on all postions.
3. Buy Topside breaks.
-- 1 lot on a break of 1.0210
-- 2 lots on a break of 1.0270

I do a little scalping as well, but this is my plan for trades that I am willing to hold for a week or two. Good trades to all!!

Regards.
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