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Attachments: Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected
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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,521
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:28am Mar 9, 2011 7:28am
Chart updated......several opportunities to get long after the early support area held.

Its interesting to see the reaction of wider candles to S&R areas - try looking at a 1 period ATR for clarification and say 10-15 pip candles http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Here, the WR green semi marubozo to a new high for the swing, with no immediate follow thru, gave me my first exit and I closed the remainder after the next resistance held with -ve divergance - my TP was at 3945 / MR1.

As I've commented before, wider ranged candles frequently appear at the start and end of swings http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Also interesting to see the fib 61 initially respected and later T2 hit........

PS the DP's now acting nicely as support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 9 eu 5m 1410 cet.gif Size: 22 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,522
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:58am Mar 9, 2011 7:58am
A break of the TL, followed by a retracement and a nice bearish engulfing candle. Entry and exit as shown.
Attached Image
  • #6,523
  • Mar 9, 2011 10:10am Mar 9, 2011 10:10am
Quoting eyevoltage
A break of the TL, followed by a retracement and a nice bearish engulfing candle. Entry and exit as shown.

Nice one EV - KISS at its best
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,524
  • Mar 9, 2011 10:13am Mar 9, 2011 10:13am
Quoting Islander
Chart updated......several opportunities to get long after the early support area held.

Its interesting to see the reaction of wider candles to S&R areas - try looking at a 1 period ATR for clarification and say 10-15 pip candles http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Here, the WR green semi marubozo to a new high for the swing, with no immediate follow thru, gave me my first exit and I closed the remainder after the next resistance held with -ve divergance - my TP was at 3945 / MR1.

As I've commented before,...
Islander,

I am reattaching your chart with some noting on it:

1. was the trade taken mainly on the strength of the green support zone? what makes a counter trend trade such as this one safe? I notice all trade entries you took today were against the trend and they all succeeded. what is the secret here?

2. why were you not dissuaded from holding on to the trade when price formed a lower low as marked on the chart.

3. why was your first exit not at the immd. next s/r zone ~ 1.3907 ?

thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 9 eu 5m 1410 cet-A.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #6,525
  • Mar 9, 2011 11:25am Mar 9, 2011 11:25am
Islander,

I am reattaching your chart with some noting on it:

1. was the trade taken mainly on the strength of the green support zone? what makes a counter trend trade such as this one safe? I notice all trade entries you took today were against the trend and they all succeeded. what is the secret here?

Firstly, how are you defining trend? For me, € was flat in the Asian Session and only started to move in the usual pre Frankies Hour window......and FH and the hour after are well known for Fake Outs!! That's what Medici and I have demostrated time and again in our thread.

2. why were you not dissuaded from holding on to the trade when price formed a lower low as marked on the chart.

There were already 2 HLs that had not been touched AND the PA wasnt convincing shortwise.......narrow candles - look at that ADR indy, < 10 pips each as price dropped (on lower vols) - also, I was long cable which was more +ve and that influenced me......the 3rd arrow was the actually the weakest potential entry that I quickly put on that chart...

3. why was your first exit not at the immd. next s/r zone ~ 1.3907 ?

Look at the PA - wide green marubozo to break the FH high, with almost no retrace in the next candle, so wait and see how it develops and trail the stop below the FH high....

thanks. NP and I'm finished for the day....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,526
  • Mar 9, 2011 11:53am Mar 9, 2011 11:53am
Quoting Islander
Islander,

I am reattaching your chart with some noting on it:

1. was the trade taken mainly on the strength of the green support zone? what makes a counter trend trade such as this one safe? I notice all trade entries you took today were against the trend and they all succeeded. what is the secret here?

[color=blue]Firstly, how are you defining trend?...
If I may add an observation to this, it would be that it is informative to study the order flow. And in this case the upward sloping trendline formed by the HLs tells the story.

There were successive rounds of buying along the trendline until price broke above MS1. Then the trendline was broken by a good amount of selling, and one could have expected another re-test of the line before continued journey down.

BUT sellers didn't manage to produce another LL and price came back up to MS1. And a nice entry was the break above the level.

As to targets, it can be statistically verified that price accelerates significantly after a resistance (or support) line has been broken after such a battle. Still, to be cautious one can exit at each level and then re-enter on break above....if one has the energy for that.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro m5 9 march.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #6,527
  • Mar 9, 2011 12:25pm Mar 9, 2011 12:25pm
Quoting medici
If I may add an observation to this, it would be that it is informative to study the order flow. And in this case the upward sloping trendline formed by the HLs tells the story.

There were successive rounds of buying along the trendline until price broke above MS1. Then the trendline was broken by a good amount of selling, and one could have expected another re-test of the line before continued journey down.

BUT sellers didn't manage to produce another LL and price came back up to MS1. And a nice entry was the break above the level.

As...
medici,

all noted.
however, the sellers did produce a LL as marked in the chart attached to my post that you replied to.

thanks.
  • #6,528
  • Mar 9, 2011 12:32pm Mar 9, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting pgd
medici,

all noted.
however, the sellers did produce a LL as marked in the chart attached to my post that you replied to.

thanks.
Yes, but not another LL after the first one, which was what I meant to point out. After that the way was up.
  • #6,529
  • Mar 9, 2011 2:37pm Mar 9, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting medici
Yes, but not another LL after the first one, which was what I meant to point out. After that the way was up.
got it.

thanks.
  • #6,530
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:00pm Mar 9, 2011 5:00pm
http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/3614/gu15min.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
  • #6,531
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:05pm Mar 9, 2011 5:05pm
Quoting Islander
LOL - try my old thread then - we experimented with loads of ideas there http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=69499&page=59

Hi, Islander, I have not seen your old thread could you give the link?
The only problem I see is that it is preferably to look for things that are obvious and everything see them. But as per your results you must be onto something
  • #6,532
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:13pm Mar 9, 2011 5:13pm
I noticed that people moved to 5 min charts for triggers.
I guess the reason is narrow daily range.
  • #6,533
  • Mar 10, 2011 3:32am Mar 10, 2011 3:32am
GM all - the Frankfurters continued the fall and sold immediatly at FO, € putting in an equal swing down, cable slightly smaller after making a FH flag.

€ had several vol POCs above 3800 and the March 1 one held price with a HL, as cable made a Big Ben fakeout to catch the unwary http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

I trust you guys caught some pips http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

Remember cable has news now and the BOE news later
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 10 5m eu & gu 1018 cet.gif Size: 59 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,534
  • Mar 10, 2011 3:37am Mar 10, 2011 3:37am
Quoting shiko
Hi, Islander, I have not seen your old thread could you give the link?
The only problem I see is that it is preferably to look for things that are obvious and everything see them. But as per your results you must be onto something

LOL - it was there, above in the quote that you replied to!

Or, if you click on the persons name it opens up a window with their Posts, Threads Started and Attachments and you can click on those to see what they's been doing.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,535
  • Mar 10, 2011 4:18am Mar 10, 2011 4:18am
Quoting Islander
GM all - the Frankfurters continued the fall and sold immediatly at FO, € putting in an equal swing down, cable slightly smaller after making a FH flag.

€ had several vol POCs above 3800 and the March 1 one held price with a HL, as cable made a Big Ben fakeout to catch the unwary http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

I trust you guys caught some pips http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

Remember cable has news now and the BOE news later
Yep got a few on pre FO supp 6159 became resistance and marginally lower candle highs finally had a little/no lower wick move through 6150. Not a big trade but on interest rate days I'm happy with anything positive. Exit just above 25 level.

Went off to do an inspection and settling up with house painters and did not take anything on move up. I won't be interested now until after mpc in a couple of hours.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,536
  • Edited 7:30am Mar 10, 2011 7:18am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting Islander
GM all - the Frankfurters continued the fall and sold immediatly at FO, € putting in an equal swing down, cable slightly smaller after making a FH flag.

€ had several vol POCs above 3800 and the March 1 one held price with a HL, as cable made a Big Ben fakeout to catch the unwary http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

I trust you guys caught some pips http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif

Remember cable has news now and the BOE news later
Hi Islander,

I thought a 'fakeout' means that price breaks out from the Asian range, goes a few pips and then reverses usually after posting a double bottom. today since cable continued its downward journey from the Asian session, why is this a fakeout?

thanks.

PS
I'm glad you liked the SR_zones indy.
  • #6,537
  • Mar 10, 2011 1:29pm Mar 10, 2011 1:29pm
Quoting pgd
Hi Islander,

I thought a 'fakeout' means that price breaks out from the Asian range, goes a few pips and then reverses usually after posting a double bottom. today since cable continued its downward journey from the Asian session, why is this a fakeout?

thanks.

PS
I'm glad you liked the SR_zones indy.
Cable did rise between around 9.15 and midday UK time, before starting its 140 pip drop this afternoon
  • #6,538
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:19am Mar 11, 2011 1:19am
Quoting pgd
Hi Islander,

I thought a 'fakeout' means that price breaks out from the Asian range, goes a few pips and then reverses usually after posting a double bottom. today since cable continued its downward journey from the Asian session, why is this a fakeout?

thanks.

PS
I'm glad you liked the SR_zones indy.
Hi - for me - and I need to find the old Big Ben pdf that I read a few years ago - it refers to a move after LO in one direction, usually for around half an hour, that allows the Big Dogs to get in at a better price for the main morning's move. That's what happened, down ~ 30 pips and then up ~75 pips during the remainder of the morning until the BOE news at 12am GMT turned cable south.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,539
  • Mar 11, 2011 1:24am Mar 11, 2011 1:24am
Here's a link, please check it out and let us have your comments....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=95917
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,540
  • Mar 11, 2011 3:03am Mar 11, 2011 3:03am
Quoting Islander
Hi - for me - and I need to find the old Big Ben pdf that I read a few years ago - it refers to a move after LO in one direction, usually for around half an hour, that allows the Big Dogs to get in at a better price for the main morning's move. That's what happened, down ~ 30 pips and then up ~75 pips during the remainder of the morning until the BOE news at 12am GMT turned cable south.
noted.
do attach that .pdf if you find it?

thanks.
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