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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,501
  • Mar 9, 2011 3:41am Mar 9, 2011 3:41am
Quoting Islander
Agreed

On my 5m chart, the green band was incorrectly placed, having been transposed several times http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif - it should be a little higher, off the more recent 4 hrly highs, so from 3855 to 3857, thus nicely catching the spike low. Its also interesting that the volume POC from last Thursday is at 3857......
For some reason when I opened charts today the market profile/POC didn't show up. Only after you referred to it, I looked and realised it wasn't on, a refresh sorted it out. A tad late though.

Great trade islander.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #6,502
  • Mar 9, 2011 3:43am Mar 9, 2011 3:43am
Quoting Islander
Agreed

On my 5m chart, the green band was incorrectly placed, having been transposed several times http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif - it should be a little higher, off the more recent 4 hrly highs, so from 3855 to 3857, thus nicely catching the spike low. Its also interesting that the volume POC from last Thursday is at 3857......
Interesting indeed. What market profile indi are you using?
  • #6,503
  • Mar 9, 2011 3:55am Mar 9, 2011 3:55am
Quoting medici
Interesting indeed. What market profile indi are you using?
Its one Bandung has developed in the Auction Market Theory and Market Profile thread - I think he's posted an updated version. I'm just waiting for the hourly candle to close before posting a chart there....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,504
  • Mar 9, 2011 3:57am Mar 9, 2011 3:57am
Quoting pgd
Thanks, Islander.

I read thru' a bit of your fib thread. I found the 23.6 & 76.4 lines marked 'AL'. what does that stand for and how do u use it ?
Alternate or Absolute Level - once broken I removed that fib

@V - thanks....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,505
  • Mar 9, 2011 4:07am Mar 9, 2011 4:07am
Quoting Islander
Its one Bandung has developed in the Auction Market Theory and Market Profile thread - I think he's posted an updated version. I'm just waiting for the hourly candle to close before posting a chart there....
Great, thanks Now on my H1 charts. Attached, should anybody be interested.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ay-MarketProfileDWM.v1.1.mq4   22 KB | 310 downloads
  • #6,506
  • Mar 9, 2011 4:09am Mar 9, 2011 4:09am
Quoting medici
that was a short...triple top against trend line...good old pattern
medici,

thanks for your comments.

my basis for the long entry was as follows:

fake breakout from Asian range followed by
higher low
trend line break
ma's flip over to the long side.
+ve close of H1 candle. H1 candles are seen in the background as red/blue boxes.

all are marked on the attached chart.

please tell me what I am missing here.

also, I would have thought 3 tops connected by a rising trendline may well be part of several more tops to come if a trend were to continue.
Kindly help me reconcile this.

thanks again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-20110309-1.gif Size: 116 KB
  • #6,507
  • Mar 9, 2011 4:45am Mar 9, 2011 4:45am
Quoting pgd
medici,

thanks for your comments.

my basis for the long entry was as follows:

fake breakout from Asian range followed by
higher low
trend line break
ma's flip over to the long side.
+ve close of H1 candle. H1 candles are seen in the background as red/blue boxes.

all are marked on the attached chart.

please tell me what I am missing here.

also, I would have thought 3 tops connected by a rising trendline may well be part of several more tops to come if a trend were to continue.
Kindly help me reconcile this.

thanks again....
Hi pgd, thanks for your question. My apologies if my brief post sounded critical. So don't take it personally - it was just meant to point out a possible observation around the open line at 1.3904.

And three tops don't predict anything at all, I agree - it's simply three touches of a trend-line. But together with divergence on M5 it is a frequently observed reversal pattern in the morning.

Which still doesn't predict anything. But together with an obvious price level and confluence with the 8am timeline, it becomes a high-probability reversal.

Still no prediction, but a warning sign if you are long. And if price turns south then it's likely to go for a long journey, so why not jump onboard?

Makes sense?
  • #6,508
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:04am Mar 9, 2011 5:04am
To Islander and Medici,

Is it ok to ask you guys what your trade management rules are once you're in a position or some guidance?

I believe the entry is important but having terrible trade management will ultimately blow an account. This is an area i'm having difficulty with.

I understand you guys use targets and sometimes let them run etc but how do you manage the trade between your entry and target.

Do you guys have concrete rules or are they disctretionary?

Questions on the following:

Initial Stop loss? (Islander has stated a max 50pip stop in the past)

when to move from initial stop loss point to b/e?

exit based on time componant from entry (price has not moved or is stalling in your direction after a certain amount of time, do you kill the trade or tighten stop or just wait for initial stop to get hit?)

trailing stop?

exits?

I apologise if i'm asking too much.


Cheers
  • #6,509
  • Edited 5:58am Mar 9, 2011 5:43am | Edited 5:58am
Quoting medici
Hi pgd, thanks for your question. My apologies if my brief post sounded critical. So don't take it personally - it was just meant to point out a possible observation around the open line at 1.3904.

And three tops don't predict anything at all, I agree - it's simply three touches of a trend-line. But together with divergence on M5 it is a frequently observed reversal pattern in the morning.

Which still doesn't predict anything. But together with an obvious price level and confluence with the 8am timeline, it becomes a high-probability reversal.

Still...
medici,

nothing at all taken personally, my firend. if anything in my post sounded like that, that was not my intention. my post was intended to offer my thinking process for dissection in order to learn where it may be flawed and to thereby elicit a better understanding. I do value the generous input I've been getting from all you experienced traders. please feel absolutely free to comment whenever you think fit. nothing will be taken amiss.

thanks for the additional explanation. yes, it does make sense.

cheers.
  • #6,510
  • Mar 9, 2011 5:56am Mar 9, 2011 5:56am
Morning, folks......(just) Lots of chat on here this morning!

For this trade, a nice flag formed on the 15m AU right on the main pivot line, with a pair of tweezer-bottoms (small blue square) indicating the actual "heads-up". Entry and exit as indicated.
Attached Image
  • #6,511
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:05am Mar 9, 2011 6:05am
To Islander and Medici, OK - my comments:

Is it ok to ask you guys what your trade management rules are once you're in a position or some guidance?

I believe the entry is important but having terrible trade management will ultimately blow an account. This is an area i'm having difficulty with.

I understand you guys use targets and sometimes let them run etc but how do you manage the trade between your entry and target.

Do you guys have concrete rules or are they disctretionary?

My methodology continues to evolve and I'm now focused on banking a larger % of the intra day swings, rather than just around FO / LO
Questions on the following:

Initial Stop loss? (Islander has stated a max 50pip stop in the past)

Yes, that was an initial Hard Stop, followed by trailing soft stops. Now, with the use of "oneclicker" I use 15 pips + spread when I enter and then adjust related to the PA

when to move from initial stop loss point to b/e?

When we get clear beginings (and ends) to a move like in the 5m € after LO this morning I'll get to BE+1 after that first WR red candle and then review after the close of each candle and trail it if appropriate.


exit based on time componant from entry (price has not moved or is stalling in your direction after a certain amount of time, do you kill the trade or tighten stop or just wait for initial stop to get hit?)

still "work in progress" I'll put a TP in for part - based on "levels"
The MAs - via their angles / slopes and separation give an idea of the strength of the move - its rather subjective! - and thus how close to trail the stop.
trailing stop?

exits?

I apologise if i'm asking too much.

I hope this helps http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,512
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:10am Mar 9, 2011 6:10am
Thanks Islander, double thumbs up mate
  • #6,513
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:25am Mar 9, 2011 6:25am
Stopped at 61.8% of yesterday (also Friday's low), so took small short when it turned around. Now with stop at BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,514
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:34am Mar 9, 2011 6:34am
Quoting medici
Stopped at 61.8% of yesterday (also Friday's low), so took small short when it turned around. Now with stop at BE.
I find it amazing how price turns right on these levels, in this case 1pip over (on my charts).

Thanks again to all you experienced traders for continuing to post
  • #6,515
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:36am Mar 9, 2011 6:36am
Quoting medici
Stopped at 61.8% of yesterday (also Friday's low), so took small short when it turned around. Now with stop at BE.
Out for 15.
  • #6,516
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:49am Mar 9, 2011 6:49am
Quoting Sakk
To Islander and Medici,

Is it ok to ask you guys what your trade management rules are once you're in a position or some guidance?

I believe the entry is important but having terrible trade management will ultimately blow an account....
My methods are also continually evolving, and partly based on gut feel, but I am more focused on the morning.

Initial hard stop is usually 20 pips, but that's just in case of internet outage and such things. Mostly I cut the trades much earlier if they don't go my way. For €/$ typically around 5-7 pips.

Exits are both level and time based and the main area of further development work.

Moving stop to BE I am not in a hurry to do if I am confident about the trade. If it looks iffy or riskier, like the recent short, then I am quicker to move it.

Soft trailing I do in a way similar to Islander, i.e. using MAs in relation to the TF traded.
  • #6,517
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:51am Mar 9, 2011 6:51am
Quoting Sakk
I find it amazing how price turns right on these levels, in this case 1pip over (on my charts).

Thanks again to all you experienced traders for continuing to post
Which, I am sure you know, has to do with limit orders being placed there. In this case central bank selling.
  • #6,518
  • Mar 9, 2011 6:59am Mar 9, 2011 6:59am
Quoting medici
My methods are also continually evolving, and partly based on gut feel, but I am more focused on the morning.
Thanks Medici,

I kind of suspected that Islander and your trade management would be as you both have described however guessing is never as good as knowing. Thanks again
  • #6,519
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:04am Mar 9, 2011 7:04am
Quoting Islander
Alternate or Absolute Level - once broken I removed that fib

@V - thanks....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
islander,

broken by price coming in from the far end, right?

meaning:

price coming from 100 and crossing below 23.6
OR
price coming from 0 and crossing above 76.4

would lead you to discard that fib?

thanks.
  • #6,520
  • Mar 9, 2011 7:08am Mar 9, 2011 7:08am
Not a typical trade based on this thread but thought I'd post it as it combined a couple of methods. Note. didn't take this trade, just example

GU formed a 28 pip range bar on the 1min with highest volume for the session (using IB volume) signaling potential supply. Price spiked up into a previous strong support area from monday now turned resistance and also just below todays R2 level.

Price then retests the high of that 1min bar, CII showing clear divergence and price immediatly reverses. The 5min chart shows an inverted hammer (bearish). Trigger to short could be the break below the 5 min hammer or a cross of a fast MA with stop at 1 pip above high which would be 1.6243
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: $GBPUSD (1 Min) 9_03_2011 Wednesday.jpg Size: 116 KB
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