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  • #402,801
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:02pm Mar 8, 2011 1:02pm
It looks like so many ppl thought eur will go up and make new high soon, from my pov i dont see it will happen coz as usual if this pair want to up it already reach 1.4200 yesterday but it not happen, why! still have no idea but for the time being im shorting it and if this trend continue then it will be a big sell off will continue next week base on weekly chart it topped at 78.6 fibo line....so better look at bigger tf to understand the bigger picture........for d1 it seem 1.3280 have a strong support and if this pair pullback it will form a head n shoulder and then resume back down to 1.25 area or more deeper 1.16 area until august this years.....that what i see for the current time, but if the price back up again and break top it will be 1.45 soon.................the end
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  • #402,802
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:04pm Mar 8, 2011 1:04pm
Quoting Fudomyo
rofl....

ok.

we are all drawn to systems that reflect our own thinking. ............

quite the opposite.

here's an analogy. Germany lost WWII on the Eastern front for a number of reasons, but one of the main one's was precision. Russian technology wasn't as advanced, so their guns had a lot of play. the Germans on the other hand were typically Prussian in their approach, so they tooled their weapons with very tight tolerances.

....................

Putting your faith in something outside of yourself to justify presumptions is bullsht....
I agree with this sentiment overall but still do use EW as one of my main analysis techniques - just not in the way most do.

I don't label every dip and spike and every seem like they never will end corrective period (x's and y's etc all over the chart) and I don't hold hard and true to the so-called rules (Elliott originally didn't describe them as such, only later) of wave 3 can't be the longest and wave 4 can't overlap wave 2.

How is this for tight tolerance spotting a wave 4 reversal earlier and missing by 1/10 of pip - see post# 402629.
  • #402,803
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:08pm Mar 8, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting JuliusCeasar
Once the daily average is done it could close anywhere but i think below 3925

Numbers i'l be watching in coming sessions are 1.4030, 1.3925, 1.3860, 1.3740, 1.3660


I suspect 3740 (3660 extreme) support is tested before up trend continues into 1.43 and beyond next week


.

nice levels , to tell u the truth i dont give a dam where it gos i am a hit and run trader going for 20-30 pips unless i see a clear trend i might hold , dont see eur going above 14150 might be wrong , still more south to see even if we bounce
  • #402,804
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:18pm Mar 8, 2011 1:18pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...the-teeth.html

What's throwing me is that from a VSA perceptive we have not had a good solid topside shakeout, remembering the high back in Oct/Nov we had a good month's worth of 200 pip ranging before the reversal kicked in...
  • #402,805
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:23pm Mar 8, 2011 1:23pm
Quoting kill56
nice levels , to tell u the truth i dont give a dam where it gos i am a hit and run trader going for 20-30 pips unless i see a clear trend i might hold , dont see eur going above 14150 might be wrong , still more south to see even if we bounce
Yeah,

Probably better just waiting and reacting as opposed to fixing your mind on a certain direction

Levels i will trying playing off in either direction

maybe try shorting rejections at 3930 or 4030 and see reactions at 3860 and 3730 before considering longs

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Mind over matter..I don't mind and you don't matter.
  • #402,806
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:25pm Mar 8, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
think my eyes are going bad....
OK we are not looking at the same thing now ... chart please????
  • #402,807
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:30pm Mar 8, 2011 1:30pm
When i first met Cloggs, Bbakker, Magix , Kill, Wormie, Fourextrader, Digger on cable thread i shut up, listened and made notes ( most of the time) because i realised i was in the presence of some awesome , REAL traders who know what they are talking about. Individually they are stunning, as a combined force they are jaw droppingly amazing.
Just to say ( yet again) that i feel very sorry for posters who have not been enriched by their posts. I owe my growth of awareness in the markets to these guys .
And no, i'm not brown nosing. It doesnt work with these guys even if i was that way inclined.
Respect..
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #402,808
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:33pm Mar 8, 2011 1:33pm
Quoting Fudomyo
rofl....

ok.

we are all drawn to systems that reflect our own thinking. the problem with supercomputing isn't that it will get it wrong.

quite the opposite.

here's an analogy. Germany lost WWII on the Eastern front for a number of reasons, but one of the main one's was precision....
No, it is not that simple, I fear :-)

EW is the only method which has a strict set of rules. EW is not meant to be knowing the exact outcome (LOL, that would be fun - crystal ball - btw, what makes people constantly believe that we Elliotticans have to have either the crystal ball or to shut up). Applied EW forecasting is a game of probabilities. You can see it best in impulse waves where EW-people most of the time deliver outstanding results. The harder part is forcasting the corrective waves, because there are 3 handful of different wave forms which can be build.

But if you do trading on small TF's there are over and over in the whole day pattern, that repeat themselves and are very good tradable, like the C wave of an zigzag.

I trade Forex for a few years now and I use Elliott Wave as a guideline to spot high probability setups. If I have found them, I execute my trading plan (moneymanagement). I use Elliott wave not only for mid or long term trading. I also use it for scalping. It works for me. Perfectly? No, not at all. I know the limitations, and (and that is important) I know at which point my count is wrong.

I can accept it when people think that elliott waves are not tradable.

For example: Even under Elliotticans it is a topic of discussion, if news (at least the biggies like war etc.) might not change the waves.

We can see Elliott Wave pattern in the market. I think that is a given and everyone can see it with his own eyes, eg the difference between impulsive waves (5 waves) and corrective waves (3 waves) Can we agree on that? If yes, then my following reasoning:

Elliott wave pattern are created by changes in social mood.

If news could effect the outcome of social mood, would that be not a far more radical view of the harmony of the universe than to state, that news can not effect social mood (aka elliott wave patterns)?

Because if you think that news can effect social mood, then these events news (dozens a day) must be so perfectly determined that they create the Elliott patterns we see in the markets.

If you argue, that the state of social psychology is caused by that events/news, then you argue that events/news are patterned.

Would that not be deterministic? And would then free will not exist? If that would be the case we were not able to make money from the wave principle.

But one could. I am one of many which trade with the wave principle.

And Prechter once said:
""On the other hand, if social psychology guides the tenor of social actions, then it is only mass psychology, which is apparently a process governed by the unconscious mind, that need be patterned to produce structure in markets."

If you have a better method (like you said) to get it right on time, the first time, feel free to share your 100% correct crystal ball with us.

Best to you,

Markus
  • #402,809
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:35pm Mar 8, 2011 1:35pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...the-teeth.html

What's throwing me is that from a VSA perceptive we have not had a good solid topside shakeout, remembering the high back in Oct/Nov we had a good month's worth of 200 pip ranging before the reversal kicked in...
Which range incidentally we're slap bang right in the middle of now...
  • #402,810
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:37pm Mar 8, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting JuliusCeasar
Once the daily average is done it could close anywhere but i think below 3925

Numbers i'l be watching in coming sessions are 1.4030, 1.3925, 1.3860, 1.3740, 1.3660


I suspect 3740 (3660 extreme) support is tested before up trend continues into 1.43 and beyond next week


.
My chart calculations are very close to yours.
Numbers ill be watching 4259, 4196, 4029, 3856, 3670, and possibly 3516 if we break 3670.

we broke one of the low volume high in oct 23, so looking for that second high before that around 4029.

i am guessing if we break 4029, we might have a retrace back to 3856 - 3670 area.

Hard to tell right now since it is waffling around like the last high. It is certain that there is low volume up top now, and more volume bottom if we break through.

I will be trading weekly until i see a more clear picture.
  • #402,811
  • Mar 8, 2011 1:50pm Mar 8, 2011 1:50pm
Quoting mercy seat
We still have positions long from 1.3962 ... which has been filled later then ...

The staple block from 1.3967 has been executed later at 1.3983 by 'if done limit' which has been activated due to fresh entry of long positions from 1.3962 ... long of course ...

Further entries are waiting below 1.3960 and 1.3950 ...

But real large ones still start from 1.3937 and 1.3924 only ...

This will be further actice ... after Asian Sesion ......

Na schön ... heute haben wir endlich das 1.392xx level gesehen und sogar deutlich unterschritten ...


We did it countertrend for a while ... aber dennoch durchaus mit Erfolg ...

Kleinere Konten (Serie A) + 0.81%
Größere Konten (Serie B) mehr als + 3.0%



ZigZag A-B-C

1.4019 1.3940
1.4004 1.3926
1.3989 1.3911
1.3974 1.3892
1.3959 1.3877
1.3940 1.3862
1.3926 1.3847
1.3911 1.3833

UP & DOWN
1.3989 1.3862


That's the way it is now ... after drift down towards 1.3862 area ...



;-|
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2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #402,812
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:05pm Mar 8, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting T@rantula
6152 long for me I will see what happens in next hour
+7 closed. i wont be leaving the trade overnight.
  • #402,813
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:19pm Mar 8, 2011 2:19pm
.
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  • #402,814
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:22pm Mar 8, 2011 2:22pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
.
what up F/A, all well brother...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #402,815
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:23pm Mar 8, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
what up F/A, all well brother...
all fine PTL, and your good self?
  • #402,816
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:28pm Mar 8, 2011 2:28pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
all fine PTL, and your good self?
just chillin by the fireplace looking as some levels..., I'm a tad under the weather...doing some what if's for tomarrow...

ps, does 3835 mean anything to you, am starting to think is a key level for some reason...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #402,817
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:30pm Mar 8, 2011 2:30pm
possible short setup

todays high to low retracement almost reached 50 fib also bounded off of the 100ema now trading around 38.2 - 23.6 daily fib.

Looking for more downside test the 23.6 fib from low of 1/11 high 3/7

the yearly Fib is sitting right on the lower upwards tread-line

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  • #402,818
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:30pm Mar 8, 2011 2:30pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
just chillin by the fireplace looking as some levels..., I'm a tad under the weather...doing some what if's for tomarrow...
Hope you feel better soon mate...
  • #402,819
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:30pm Mar 8, 2011 2:30pm
lol bar is open free drinks and cigar for those who are flat , watching the dam screen doing nothing
  • #402,820
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:32pm Mar 8, 2011 2:32pm
Quoting kill56
lol bar is open free drinks and cigar for those who are flat , watching the dam screen doing nothing

I'll have a vodka and orange juice...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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