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CHOROS System

  • #4,361
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:31pm Mar 7, 2011 6:31pm
Quoting bigtent
Often on the EU and GU, the constraint is during the Sydney/Asian session and this is the Frankfurt or London "fake out".

I think it is impossible without MTF indicators on your charts. It may look ugly, but I am trading charts not looking at oil paintings, and I have way too much difficulty as it is looking at three charts (M15 main, M5 and M1 to zero in).
Good points. Dont go by what i post here. Here i post only relevant charts not entire work station.If i post 1H then also rest assured i have 5 charts open- 15m, 5m, 1h,4h,1d (i switch between 1m and 5m as needed). I personally prefer 5 charts to MTF indicator. Two reasons- i find it messy but more importantly, i dont want to miss HTF PA. HTF PA is impotant to me. Not to confuse anyone here but I dont want to go dead against a HTF PA. So it's six charts for me- of course most of time my attention is on chart of interest , the one i am trading at the moment. But i like to have a quick look at others before pulling the trigger. Matter of personal preference.

I note your london fake out with intrest. Good observation. Before i started trading constrainments i used to ignore any movement before london settles. That used to save me from opening fakeout. Now i must figure out how to deal with it.There must be a way to make money instead of getting stopped on this whipsaw.

Agree to phychology part. I think with a new syatem it's important to take things very lowly and gain confidence. Rushing leads to losses and that leads to phychological disaster has been my observation. Even yesterdays trade proves it. Once i got stopped on my initial position, i got too confused to pull the trigger when there was clear signal after my SL - i was asking myself how the hell can i be stopped on a perfect setup! I must remember that nothing has 100% strike rate.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,362
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:43pm Mar 7, 2011 10:43pm
Daily and H4 are in uptrend, while H1 was ranging.

1) 10 Touch, 35 Bounce. This is another cross and retest. Bigtent appears to have gotten in this early just by waiting for price to cross all the relevant MAs. Here, you would get the same result by taking the bounce off the 10 or the 50 on the retest after price cleared the MA. This is similar to a scooped up trade that Kostas took last week. Good for lots of pips.

2)10 Touch. Loser. I didn't take this trade. The yellow lines are daily highs from the previous week, and the purple line is a long standing S/R line. See how price tests the S/R area once and fails, then comes back to test it a second time and fails again with almost a Pin Bar. Actually, at the top you get two hanging men, followed by a pin, followed by a bearish engulfing bar. I was patting myself on the back for refusing to take the 10 Touch, when I should have been going short.

3) 35/50 Bounce. Loser. I did take this trade, and I took it on the touch. Almost everything is in its favor. The MAs are steep, they have not been visisted for awhile. It is a rather long move back to them, and for that reason, I probably should have waited for a confirming bar on the M5. Also, it's worth noting that the H1 10 was just above this area, and there was a 13 pip bounce off of it, before price went down for this touch. Since the H1 bounce failed, maybe it was too much to expect the lower time frame bounce to do much. I got to +5 after spread, and price then stalled. I maybe should have exited then. Instead, I thought about getting out when it was still at +1. And then it dropped to -11 in a heartbeat. Oh well. This is a by the rules trade, but I think the H1 action should have given me enough warning, maybe. I'd love to hear others opinions on this.

4) 10 Touch (almost). A near touch of the 10, but on the third bar of a retrace. On the plus side, its a nice confluence with an S/R line and with the Daily Pivot. If you caught it, this would be a good trade. I have a hard time getting on board these near touches.

5) 10 Touch. This is the first actual touch of the 10 after a very long move. It takes 5 bars from the low to make the touch, and it turns out this is an agonizing trade that goes nowhere. With a 9 pip stop, it would take 3 hours to get stopped out. With a bigger stop, you might get to break even after 5 hours or so... This late, after this big a run, and with the weakness leading into the turnaround, I think this is just a no trade.
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  • #4,363
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:07am Mar 8, 2011 3:07am
Quoting duffypratt
4) 10 Touch (almost). A near touch of the 10, but on the third bar of a retrace. On the plus side, its a nice confluence with an S/R line and with the Daily Pivot.
I don't know how others treat this, but in such a situation S/R and pivot mean nothing to me. They have already been crossed over, violated and deflowered in the vicinity of the timeframe. Why would price suddenly decide to respect them again ? IMHO this was just a coincidence.
  • #4,364
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:29am Mar 8, 2011 3:29am
Quoting micmic
I don't know how others treat this, but in such a situation S/R and pivot mean nothing to me. They have already been crossed over, violated and deflowered in the vicinity of the timeframe. Why would price suddenly decide to respect them again ? IMHO this was just a coincidence.
Nothing is 100%, and if you look at it, most levels are never truly "rubbed out" forever.

The best example of this is when you see support broken then it becomes resistance and after it has been broken again, once again it becomes support.

Just because it has been previously broken doesn't mean it will not come into play again. If you watch price at most of these levels as it encounters them, you'll usually see it pause and splutter about before it goes past or reverses.

When you have a confluence, the effect is added and made stronger, and it is often enough to cause the level to hold and cause a reversal.
  • #4,365
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:31am Mar 8, 2011 3:31am
Quoting micmic
I don't know how others treat this, but in such a situation S/R and pivot mean nothing to me. They have already been crossed over, violated and deflowered in the vicinity of the timeframe. Why would price suddenly decide to respect them again ? IMHO this was just a coincidence.
I believe that trade is a case of finding reason to catch a ride on a powerful trend movement while it lasts. Some of the guys here have done it before(kostas?) and it works well for them.

duffy, for that third trade that you asked for opinions, in the original dance thread I recall Clay saying he avoids 35/50 touches when PA has "flipped" over the other side of the 10. Here you can almost see price constrained to the downward 10. The huge power of recent movement overwrites the history of the price. Just my 2 cents
  • #4,366
  • Edited 4:30am Mar 8, 2011 3:37am | Edited 4:30am
Quoting Survivor
Good points....
Yes, I just switch the time frame of my two smaller charts for HTF PA rather than having another chart. I am never examining HTF PA at the same time as I am trying to zero in on an entry....

Speaking of HTF, we may be going back up soon....
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PS.... then again, what would I know LOL
  • #4,367
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:43am Mar 8, 2011 3:43am
Quoting micmic
I don't know how others treat this, but in such a situation S/R and pivot mean nothing to me. They have already been crossed over, violated and deflowered in the vicinity of the timeframe. Why would price suddenly decide to respect them again ? IMHO this was just a coincidence.
On the way down, in what is a very sharp move, price made a low on three consecutive bars in that exact area before continuing. It might be coincidence, or it's possible that it stalled there on the way down because there was still some respect for the area, though not enough to cause a reversal.
  • #4,368
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:53am Mar 8, 2011 3:53am
Quoting natnimrey
I believe that trade is a case of finding reason to catch a ride on a powerful trend movement while it lasts. Some of the guys here have done it before(kostas?) and it works well for them.

duffy, for that third trade that you asked for opinions, in the original dance thread I recall Clay saying he avoids 35/50 touches when PA has "flipped" over the other side of the 10. Here you can almost see price constrained to the downward 10. The huge power of recent movement overwrites the history of the price. Just my 2 cents
Thanks. That's just another reason why I have to re-read the original thread. I don't remember Clay saying that, and I'm not quite sure what it means. Almost every time there is a bounce off the 35/50 price has also crossed the 10. So the question then is whether there is a difference between a cross, and having "flipped" the MA. I can see from my loss yesterday where there might be, but it would help me to go back and see Clay's example to get a better idea of what this means. Thanks again for pointing this out.
  • #4,369
  • Mar 8, 2011 4:36am Mar 8, 2011 4:36am
Anyone had any problems with this "getting stuck"?

Just had a trade on the EU, but it kept changing the SL and TP of both parts of the trade back to the Luktom defaults (+/- 15 on mine).

Removed EA and was still doing it. Put on my Dance trail EA and it would change it, then it would change back.

Even doing it manually with no EAs and it still was doing it, even after a MT4 shutdown/restart.

May have been a Windows thing, or maybe a hitch with the broker (but the changes were made and came back OK, then changed back again).

The trade was a winner... +15 both positions, but I wanted to trail the second!

Trading in..... the Twilight Zone.... doodoodoodoo-doodoodoodoo
  • #4,370
  • Mar 8, 2011 4:37am Mar 8, 2011 4:37am
Hi,
I am studying the thread and unable to download Clay's manual attached in this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2591

The link takes me to a page with a lot of softwares to download. I did download ilivid player; but can't get to the download of the actual Manual (pdf). Can anyone help please?

Truly fascinating trading concepts in this thread. I had studied and traded EO Hater's thread which I loved; but seems this is a simpler concept.
Support appreciated,
Thanks,
t
"As Kids we believe Anything is Possible; the Trick is to never forget it!"
  • #4,371
  • Mar 8, 2011 5:03am Mar 8, 2011 5:03am
Quoting teemo
Hi,
I am studying the thread and unable to download Clay's manual attached in this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2591

The link takes me to a page with a lot of softwares to download. I did download ilivid player; but can't get to the download of the actual Manual (pdf). Can anyone help please?

Truly fascinating trading concepts in this thread. I had studied and traded EO Hater's thread which I loved; but seems this is a simpler concept.
Support appreciated,
Thanks,
t
You'll find it and an archive of the Dance thread here....
  • #4,372
  • Mar 8, 2011 5:20am Mar 8, 2011 5:20am
Quoting duffypratt
Thanks. That's just another reason why I have to re-read the original thread. I don't remember Clay saying that, and I'm not quite sure what it means.
You are most welcome duffy. I scanned through the thread and found the following posts where he mentioned how he becomes very wary when price "turns over" the 10 and take three or more candles to hit 35. He prefers the touch within two bars.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=784
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=305
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=307
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=469

Love that thread...too bad it ended like Revenge of the Sith. Or was it the Neanderthals?
  • #4,373
  • Mar 8, 2011 5:24am Mar 8, 2011 5:24am
Quoting natnimrey
You are most welcome duffy. I scanned through the thread and found the following posts where he mentioned how he becomes very wary when price "turns over" the 10 and take three or more candles to hit 35. He prefers the touch within two bars.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=784
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=305
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=307
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=469

Love...
Please don't denigrate Neanderthals like that.
  • #4,374
  • Mar 8, 2011 6:17am Mar 8, 2011 6:17am
Quoting duffypratt
Thanks. That's just another reason why I have to re-read the original thread. I don't remember Clay saying that, and I'm not quite sure what it means. Almost every time there is a bounce off the 35/50 price has also crossed the 10. So the question then is whether there is a difference between a cross, and having "flipped" the MA. I can see from my loss yesterday where there might be, but it would help me to go back and see Clay's example to get a better idea of what this means. Thanks again for pointing this out.

I think duffy is spot on. Caution should be warranted when 10EMA has "clearly" turned. Note that this happenes mostly when number of bars in too large before touch. Here are two recent examples i could find. May not be perfect but hope they clarify what i mean.

Again, trade was perfect setup and it would have taken it even with a fault but with lower expectations..
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Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,375
  • Mar 8, 2011 6:21am Mar 8, 2011 6:21am
Quoting bigtent
Please don't denigrate Neanderthals like that.
My mistakeThey actually had some intelligence...
  • #4,376
  • Mar 8, 2011 6:26am Mar 8, 2011 6:26am
As we all know constrainment were "master trades" originally but were fast losing the war to touches. But today Masters have returned to take their revenge! Hope they build their empire again. Did i hear it wrongly? Maybe they call it International dance day

Also i take this opportunity to welcome back perfect master trades in 15M USDCHF. See the manual examples and this one. Hadn't seen anything like that for ages. Lets see more of these.
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Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,377
  • Mar 8, 2011 6:29am Mar 8, 2011 6:29am
Here are other too. I Am leaving out GU for limitation of attachment. As an exercise try and find it anyone?
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Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,378
  • Mar 8, 2011 6:55am Mar 8, 2011 6:55am
Quoting duffypratt
On the way down, in what is a very sharp move, price made a low on three consecutive bars in that exact area before continuing. It might be coincidence, or it's possible that it stalled there on the way down because there was still some respect for the area, though not enough to cause a reversal.
micmic it' not pure dance and it's utterly confusing. So better not waste your time looking for such trade.

However i thinkduffy is right. if you do identify a breaches resistance expect it to become a support later when price comes down. That's basic psychology nothing fancy. Say EU has resistance at 1.4000.Lots of people sell it there( by defination resistance is where people sell it). Seller arent expecting it to cross 1.4000. But buyers believe otherwise and buy enough to push the price higher to say 1.4050.Now if price comes back to 1.4000 what will happen. Buyers will keep on buying because they think their analysis was perfect and they should have bot more to begin with (GREED). What will sellers do? They have been proven wrong and they will be afraid when price shoots higher (FEAR). SO they will run to buy to cover their shorts at cost. Also note that those who did nothing previously will also buy now becaue they are cursing themselelfe for missing the move and trying to get another entry. So now everyone is a buyer at previous resistance. Naturally, it acts as support as long as some larger disaster doesnt encourage more selling. I can give chart examples but i think this thread is not for this. Better to concentrate on one technique and master it. But i would not advice anyone to shut their eyes to realities of marketplace.
Making money is easy- Just dont take losing trades
  • #4,379
  • Mar 8, 2011 7:07am Mar 8, 2011 7:07am
Followed a good session yesterday with a bad one today.

Started off not taking a constraint on the GU (would have reached my daily target with that one trade).... but not going to tell you what I did because it was too stupid.

Anyway, managed to get to break even, so I'm off to bed (2 am here). Seeing I thought it was a pretty difficult day with a lot of rangy spiky price action, that's not too bad.

Tomorrow... onward MacDuff!
  • #4,380
  • Edited 8:48am Mar 8, 2011 7:16am | Edited 8:48am
You missed this one in your summary (and I was too dumb to take it!)

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