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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,461
  • Mar 7, 2011 8:55am Mar 7, 2011 8:55am
Quoting eyevoltage
I wouldn't have taken it, mate, due to everything that's happening in very close proximity below (Mid-point level plus MA zone). You can see how price then marched along the 34ema for a while before dropping through.
On the other hand, if one doesn't use MA's, then one would just wait for the break of the mid-point level and enter, with the R1/Friday's high confluence being a quick target.
Just my opinion, mate. Others would probably see it differently.
At that place I would not take it either. Too dangerous in my opinion. But there were two opportunities to go short below just above daily open and then below where consolidation was broken in both cases south. BTW, EV, these entries would be your specialty.
I just came back for a break so, I am done for today. no Forex.
  • #6,462
  • Edited 9:01am Mar 7, 2011 8:56am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting Vantage
Hi pgd
I thought that was a good 2b trade to take. 1hr had closed a nice doji on the high from 2 Mar, 15 min shooting star with good divergence (in my case macd histo 5 15 setting), 5 min 2b with divergence also.

I wouldn't have been interested on straight 2b but at last weeks high + the other info a nice trade.
If you did miss the 2b at the top this was a great final trade of day (for me at least). 1hr neg close shooting star after the doji, 15 min lower high shooting star set this 5 min lh reject of psych level up.
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  • #6,463
  • Mar 7, 2011 9:08am Mar 7, 2011 9:08am
ev,
islander,
barry cade,

thanks all, for your valuable input re. the 2b entry.

ev, barry cade,

i am a bit confused here. since 2b entries are reversal entries by their very nature, would they not invariably run into ma's and, the pivot lines, etc. that the previous trend traversed / targeted? It would then mean that you would not take 2b entries or other double bottoms/tops per se and wait for the new trend to establish itself. incidentally, i thought that march along the ema34 was simply one of the bear flags to be expected on the way down? please correct me if i am seeing this wrong.

thanks again.
  • #6,464
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:00am Mar 7, 2011 10:00am
From earlier.....IMO, that was a valid 5m sell that you mentioned, off a resistance area, R2 with -ve divergence from CII and a good time to look for a pull back into NYO http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

MMmmm - some pull back! I was out at that high, but sold later on the break of the next support level, banking some at the first green tick - the Asian low and the remainder at the next level - also MS2 & ~fib 38 level off my hourly chart.

What IMO is interesting is how these S&R levels line up with pivot levels & fibs http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,465
  • Mar 7, 2011 10:54am Mar 7, 2011 10:54am
Quoting pgd
ev,
islander,
barry cade,

thanks all, for your valuable input re. the 2b entry.

ev, barry cade,

i am a bit confused here. since 2b entries are reversal entries by their very nature, would they not invariably run into ma's and, the pivot lines, etc. that the previous trend traversed / targeted? It would then mean that you would not take 2b entries or other double bottoms/tops per se and wait for the new trend to establish itself. incidentally, i thought that march along the ema34 was simply one of the bear flags to be expected on the way down?...
I can understand your confusion, pg, and you're quite right regarding how a 2b is by its nature a reversal signal. I said I wouldn't take it because of what was going on just beneath it. However, this isn't always the case where 2b's are concerned. Sometimes, price can literally run away with itself and eventually form what's known as a "bubble". This is usually WELL above things like MA's etc. To my mind, these types of 2b's are the best ones to trade, because the 2b signal itself is an indicator of the "bubble" bursting and price is due to collapse back towards the MA zone. I hope I've explained that correctly. I did say that others would see it differently, and both Islander and Vantage have done that very thing!!
And yes, that "march" along the 34ema WAS a bearish flag....in fact it was the bearish flag that both BC and I missed!!

  • #6,466
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:01am Mar 7, 2011 11:01am
Quoting eyevoltage
I can understand your confusion, pg, and you're quite right regarding how a 2b is by its nature a reversal signal....
ev,

thanks for throwing further light on the matter.
now it's crystal clear in all respects.
i'm glad i asked.

cheers.
  • #6,467
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:11am Mar 7, 2011 11:11am
Quoting pgd
ev,

thanks for throwing further light on the matter.
now it's crystal clear in all respects.
i'm glad i asked.

cheers.
Not at all, old chap. You're very welcome.
  • #6,468
  • Edited 12:11pm Mar 7, 2011 11:14am | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting Vantage
Hi pgd
I thought that was a good 2b trade to take. 1hr had closed a nice doji on the high from 2 Mar, 15 min shooting star with good divergence (in my case macd histo 5 15 setting), 5 min 2b with divergence also.

I wouldn't have been interested on straight 2b but at last weeks high + the other info a nice trade.
Quoting Vantage
If you did miss the 2b at the top this was a great final trade of day (for me at least). 1hr neg close shooting star after the doji, 15 min lower high shooting star set this 5 min lh reject of psych level up.
vantage,

thanks for your input.
sorry, I missed your posts earlier.

cheers.
  • #6,469
  • Mar 7, 2011 1:31pm Mar 7, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting Islander
Thanks - I find simple, visually enhanced charts help me! € updated with fibs and relevant pivots.....

We're 5º - 7º colder here with easterlies keeping our temps down, but when the sun's out its nice for walking etc .....glad Banus was good for you
Islander,

what fib levels are you using for bull & bear T1, T2 ?

thanks.
  • #6,470
  • Mar 7, 2011 1:38pm Mar 7, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting Islander
Thanks - I find simple, visually enhanced charts help me! € updated with fibs and relevant pivots.....

We're 5º - 7º colder here with easterlies keeping our temps down, but when the sun's out its nice for walking etc .....glad Banus was good for you
Islander,

1. are you using previous day's hi-lo to pull those fibs?
2. what fib levels are you using for bull & bear T1, T2 ?

thanks.
  • #6,471
  • Mar 7, 2011 2:56pm Mar 7, 2011 2:56pm
Quoting pgd
Islander,

1. are you using previous day's hi-lo to pull those fibs?
2. what fib levels are you using for bull & bear T1, T2 ?

thanks.
1. The 15m Eu chart shows the placement of the fib
2. T2 is a 61% expansion and I'll leave you to work out the T1 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
3. In my later post I was working off the 60 min chart, so again, its better if you work it out! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,472
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:33pm Mar 7, 2011 4:33pm
Quoting Islander
1. The 15m Eu chart shows the placement of the fib
2. T2 is a 61% expansion and I'll leave you to work out the T1 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
3. In my later post I was working off the 60 min chart, so again, its better if you work it out! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
That's pretty interesting way to draw fibs. i have seen few and all different.
  • #6,473
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:35pm Mar 7, 2011 4:35pm
Quoting eyevoltage
I can understand your confusion, pg, and you're quite right regarding how a 2b is by its nature a reversal signal....

EV, Hi,
Could you explain this 2B thing? what does 2b mean? I see bearish formation but why everyone calls it 2b?
  • #6,474
  • Mar 7, 2011 11:55pm Mar 7, 2011 11:55pm
if you see something setting up, do send in a quick message.

thanks.
  • #6,475
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:27am Mar 8, 2011 2:27am
Quoting shiko
EV, Hi,
Could you explain this 2B thing? what does 2b mean? I see bearish formation but why everyone calls it 2b?
Hi Shiko
Check out Vantage's thread. It explains it in detail. I think its on his first entry. Well worth reading.
  • #6,476
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:31am Mar 8, 2011 2:31am
Just sold eur 3948 15 min shooting star, stop to BE once +13 reached as we are at obvious bounce level. Will post charts if it follows through.
  • #6,477
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:51am Mar 8, 2011 2:51am
Quoting Vantage
Just sold eur 3948 15 min shooting star, stop to BE once +13 reached as we are at obvious bounce level. Will post charts if it follows through.
good entry but its close to a rising lower channel t/l at 3924 ish. I was waiting to see whether it broke this
  • #6,478
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:51am Mar 8, 2011 2:51am
Quoting Vantage
Just sold eur 3948 15 min shooting star, stop to BE once +13 reached as we are at obvious bounce level. Will post charts if it follows through.
D chart has a shooting star Y and massive histo div on macd 5 15 for a sell.

In move down through 50 level sold 15 min shooting star, 5 min lh shooting star. Out +22 when 25 psych level/38% ext of Y's range/M1 combo held for 2nd time.
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  • #6,479
  • Mar 8, 2011 2:57am Mar 8, 2011 2:57am
Quoting Barry Cade
good entry but its close to a rising lower channel t/l at 3924 ish. I was waiting to see whether it broke this
Agreed it was tight in some respects and 1 of those trades where I would have bailed at -7 or so if it didn't work out.

But I was looking at the move below Y's low had held with some very good candles which gave me a lot of comfort.

I'm lousy at picking a level and trading it but hopefully OK at seeing a level and trading reaction to it. In this case the immediate reaction to Y's low was what we were hoping for.
  • #6,480
  • Mar 8, 2011 3:15am Mar 8, 2011 3:15am
Quoting Vantage
Agreed it was tight in some respects and 1 of those trades where I would have bailed at -7 or so if it didn't work out.

But I was looking at the move below Y's low had held with some very good candles which gave me a lot of comfort.

I'm lousy at picking a level and trading it but hopefully OK at seeing a level and trading reaction to it. In this case the immediate reaction to Y's low was what we were hoping for.
good trade V. Entry & exit spot on. I was too late on entry so had to wait for reaction to psych & t/l
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