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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #6,441
  • Mar 4, 2011 6:58am Mar 4, 2011 6:58am
bear flag at 9300 and ma zone.
break, retrace (forming LH) and entry as shown.
see bearish harami followed by 2 gravestone dojis before the fall.

though the pivot was close by, it was expected to break as the move was a follow-up on the test a few bars ago.

entry: 9297
exit: 9278 (just above __75)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-20110304-1.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #6,442
  • Mar 6, 2011 10:43pm Mar 6, 2011 10:43pm
good morning, all.
hope everyone had a rejuvenating weekend.

this one's very similar to the one posted above.
bearish flag, bounce off ma zone.

entry: 1.2938
exit : 1.2927
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf-20110307-1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #6,443
  • Edited 2:42am Mar 7, 2011 2:23am | Edited 2:42am
another one:
bear flag followed by shooting star on 115.00 forming LH.
entry, exit as shown.
reached target real quick.

entry: 114.93
exit : 114.78
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy-20110307-2.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #6,444
  • Mar 7, 2011 2:51am Mar 7, 2011 2:51am
Quoting pgd
good morning, all.
hope everyone had a rejuvenating weekend.

this one's very similar to the one posted above.
bearish flag, bounce off ma zone.

entry: 1.2938
exit : 1.2927
Hi PGD. Glad you are continuing to make pips. For info, I wont trade this pair. The Swiss Gvmt has a habit of interfering with their currency in relation to the €, so you can get massive swings out of the blue. Having said that, I dont think they have been playing games for a few months now.

I would still be cautious because I believe the Swiss export massively to the EU so they probably wont want their currency to be too high in relation to the deteriorating Euro. If I recall correctly, they interfered in the market in the afternoons.
  • #6,445
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:06am Mar 7, 2011 3:06am
Quoting Barry Cade
Hi PGD. Glad you are continuing to make pips. For info, I wont trade this pair. The Swiss Gvmt has a habit of interfering with their currency in relation to the €, so you can get massive swings out of the blue. Having said that, I dont think they have been playing games for a few months now.

I would still be cautious because I believe the Swiss export massively to the EU so they probably wont want their currency to be too high in relation to the deteriorating Euro. If I recall correctly, they interfered in the market in the afternoons.
Barry,

you're right.
thanks for drawing my attention to the fact. will keep it in mind.
incidentally, this trade was around 5 am swiss time when the govt. would be in bed and snoring

what are you into today?
watching anything?
  • #6,446
  • Mar 7, 2011 3:36am Mar 7, 2011 3:36am
Tried to short E/J at 114.75 but platform showed some kind of error. was late while reloading. I was also waiting for e/j to bounce from 114.50 which being support also is 50.00 fib retracement of previous up wave. it did and with good 15 min candles so , went long at 114.83 target was 115.10 which it hit but I closed at 115.00. also scalped g/u for 12 pips.

http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/6755/ej15min.png

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http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/3614/gu15min.png

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  • #6,447
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:06am Mar 7, 2011 4:06am
Quoting pgd
Barry,

you're right.
thanks for drawing my attention to the fact. will keep it in mind.
incidentally, this trade was around 5 am swiss time when the govt. would be in bed and snoring

what are you into today?
watching anything?
Not concentrating on markets I am afraid. Just catching up having been away. Not had time to research yet.
  • #6,448
  • Mar 7, 2011 4:10am Mar 7, 2011 4:10am
GM all.....S&R areas from last week.

The Asian Session bounced nicely off the support area and the pull back into mid FH gave a clear buy signal.

The R2 / resistance area is ~ a 100 pip swing, so my TP is at the lower edge to bank nice pips for this morning - hopefully....

Edit: TP now hit.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 7 gu 5m 1100 cet.gif Size: 19 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,449
  • Edited 5:53am Mar 7, 2011 4:19am | Edited 5:53am
barry,

do u also avoid the gbpchf for the same reason?
  • #6,450
  • Edited 5:35am Mar 7, 2011 5:00am | Edited 5:35am
Quoting Islander
GM all.....S&R areas from last week.

The Asian Session bounced nicely off the support area and the pull back into mid FH gave a clear buy signal.

The R2 / resistance area is ~ a 100 pip swing, so my TP is at the lower edge to bank nice pips for this morning - hopefully....

Edit: TP now hit.....
Islander,

That was neat!

Some questions:

1.
do u pick the s/r areas from last week using H4 chart?

2.
do these stay on your chart all through the current week?

3.
do u update/add s/r areas every day as the week progresses using H1 chart this time?

4.
what was the basis for targeting R2 and not R1 for this move?

5.
any reason why you preferred the entry you took in stead of the one at 8:05 after the previous pullback?

thanks.
  • #6,451
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:28am Mar 7, 2011 5:28am
Quoting pgd
barry,

do u also avoid the gbpchf for the same reason?
nope. The issue with the Swiss authorities is that they have historically tried to correlate to the Euro so their exports arent so expensive. Its not the issue with gbp. I dont think we are a big market for clocks, knives and chocolate, or whatever else they export!

I dont trade this because I dont have the time to monitor any more currencies intraday. I am trying to discipline myself to stick to 4, but I still miss good opportunities. I do trade indices between 8-9am and oil too, but its really too much to do properly. I am trying to work out a simpler strategy (risk/reward vs time spent watching) and restrict timings for FTSE and oil only, or I will need a 3rd computer!
  • #6,452
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:31am Mar 7, 2011 5:31am
Quoting Islander
GM all.....S&R areas from last week.

The Asian Session bounced nicely off the support area and the pull back into mid FH gave a clear buy signal.

The R2 / resistance area is ~ a 100 pip swing, so my TP is at the lower edge to bank nice pips for this morning - hopefully....

Edit: TP now hit.....
I do like the homework you prepare. Outstanding.

By the way, the weather in Puerto Banus was fantastic. Blue skies every day. Over 20c. Hope you are getting the same.
  • #6,453
  • Mar 7, 2011 5:48am Mar 7, 2011 5:48am
Quoting Barry Cade
I do like the homework you prepare. Outstanding.

By the way, the weather in Puerto Banus was fantastic. Blue skies every day. Over 20c. Hope you are getting the same.
Thanks - I find simple, visually enhanced charts help me! € updated with fibs and relevant pivots.....

We're 5º - 7º colder here with easterlies keeping our temps down, but when the sun's out its nice for walking etc .....glad Banus was good for you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mar 7 eur 15m 15m 1140 gmt.gif Size: 22 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,454
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:18am Mar 7, 2011 6:18am
Experts,

I didn't take this 2b short below R2 but would it have been a technically good trade to take?

Thanks.
Attached Image
  • #6,455
  • Mar 7, 2011 6:50am Mar 7, 2011 6:50am
Quoting pgd
Experts,

I didn't take this 2b short below R2 but would it have been a technically good trade to take?

Thanks.
I wouldn't have taken it, mate, due to everything that's happening in very close proximity below (Mid-point level plus MA zone). You can see how price then marched along the 34ema for a while before dropping through.
On the other hand, if one doesn't use MA's, then one would just wait for the break of the mid-point level and enter, with the R1/Friday's high confluence being a quick target.
Just my opinion, mate. Others would probably see it differently.
Attached Image
  • #6,456
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:03am Mar 7, 2011 7:03am
Quoting Islander
Thanks - I find simple, visually enhanced charts help me! € updated with fibs and relevant pivots.....

We're 5º - 7º colder here with easterlies keeping our temps down, but when the sun's out its nice for walking etc .....glad Banus was good for you
really like this idea of adding the "rectangles" of s/r. Good planning. Thanks.

I would also suggest including the T/Ls for EU as they are forming in rising parallel channels and we have just touched the top of the highest channel line at 4036 (back down from 25 feb)
  • #6,457
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:17am Mar 7, 2011 7:17am
Islander,

That was neat! Thanks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Some questions:

1.
do u pick the s/r areas from last week using H4 chart?
I look at 15m, 60m, 4 hrly & daily
2.
do these stay on your chart all through the current week?
Yes IF we are still trading in the same range
3.
do u update/add s/r areas every day as the week progresses using H1 chart this time?
Updated or extended every day - usually just off 15m & 60m after Monday
4.
what was the basis for targeting R2 and not R1 for this move?
My initial target was the R1 area, but the strong push thru the 6300 level with little retrace caused me to change it to the R2 area.
5.
any reason why you preferred the entry you took in stead of the one at 8:05 after the previous pullback?
That was vaild too, but I was busy with € and having a slow start!

thanks. NP

IMO, that was a valid 5m sell that you mentioned, off a resistance area, R2 with -ve divergence from CII and a good time to look for a pull back into NYO http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #6,458
  • Mar 7, 2011 7:18am Mar 7, 2011 7:18am
Quoting eyevoltage
I wouldn't have taken it, mate, due to everything that's happening in very close proximity below (Mid-point level plus MA zone). You can see how price then marched along the 34ema for a while before dropping through.
On the other hand, if one doesn't use MA's, then one would just wait for the break of the mid-point level and enter, with the R1/Friday's high confluence being a quick target.
Just my opinion, mate. Others would probably see it differently.
I wouldnt have taken it either as against trend and close proximity to EMAs.

However, Ive just missed an entry at 6315 following small flag & bearish engulfing bar.
  • #6,459
  • Mar 7, 2011 8:16am Mar 7, 2011 8:16am
Quoting Barry Cade

However, Ive just missed an entry at 6315 following small flag & bearish engulfing bar.
I missed it as well, BC, due to being not observant enough.
Must do better!


Nice to see you back, by the way.
  • #6,460
  • Mar 7, 2011 8:38am Mar 7, 2011 8:38am
Quoting pgd
Experts,

I didn't take this 2b short below R2 but would it have been a technically good trade to take?

Thanks.
Hi pgd
I thought that was a good 2b trade to take. 1hr had closed a nice doji on the high from 2 Mar, 15 min shooting star with good divergence (in my case macd histo 5 15 setting), 5 min 2b with divergence also.

I wouldn't have been interested on straight 2b but at last weeks high + the other info a nice trade.
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