DislikedPres - You got this new guy confused with point #4. Are you really focused on the Red NS bar, or what I think is the far more significant Blue, Low-volume, ND bar right after that?Ignored
- #15,001
- Mar 4, 2011 2:39pm Mar 4, 2011 2:39pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Looking at a few more charts... | 1,195 Posts
After the discussion today, I thought I'd spend a little time looking into the background of GU, which I'd never done before as I've not really looked into the pair. Interesting stuff, please bear with me. Apologies if I bore you to tears lol
First, the monthly. Looking back to the big downmove at the end of 2008 (oh how I long for the 2:1 $:£ back again lol) we can see supply drying up - the professionals have less interest in the downside. There are signs of strength in the next few months but not strong evidence of buying. Fast forward to early 2010 where we see stopping volume in March 2010, but followed by a no demand in April 2010. We then have a widespread down bar in May 2010 closing off the lows on the highest monthly volume ever, with the next bar up - clear buying. This, following the buying at around 1.5000, and the fact that the low didn't reach the 2008 low, shows me we are now bullish again.
We then see a no demand in July 2010 allowing the price to rest in August 2010 before continuing the move up. We are now closing on the serious congestion area around 1.6 to 1.65 - if the SM is very bullish it's going to have to shakeout supply here to push beyond 1.65 towards 1.7 and beyond.
In December 2010 we see what I feel is really a no supply bar, followed by a clear push up of 500 pips in January, with a further push in Feb. It's clear the SM is bullish, I'm not denying that. However we're not going to sail through this congestion zone unless the SM is prepared to absorb the supply, which I find difficult to believe as there are cheaper ways of achieving the same goal but they take slightly longer
I am slightly concerned about the narrowness of the spread in Feb. The volume was higher than Jan (just) but the spread is half or less. We've not seen a spread this narrow since 2006, and that was on 1/2 the volume. This suggests to me that there possibly could have been a fair bit of supply in here for the spread to have remained so narrow. And if there is supply, it needs removed before we can leg up. It wouldn't surprise me to see further attempts to remove supply before pushing too much further up. I emphasise possibly as the next bar (March) obviously isn't complete but it's enough to make me cautious and not automatically bullish for the month of March.
I'll move onto weekly and daily in the next post. Very happy to hear comments, especially if you think I'm completely wrong on something. Every day is a learning day
First, the monthly. Looking back to the big downmove at the end of 2008 (oh how I long for the 2:1 $:£ back again lol) we can see supply drying up - the professionals have less interest in the downside. There are signs of strength in the next few months but not strong evidence of buying. Fast forward to early 2010 where we see stopping volume in March 2010, but followed by a no demand in April 2010. We then have a widespread down bar in May 2010 closing off the lows on the highest monthly volume ever, with the next bar up - clear buying. This, following the buying at around 1.5000, and the fact that the low didn't reach the 2008 low, shows me we are now bullish again.
We then see a no demand in July 2010 allowing the price to rest in August 2010 before continuing the move up. We are now closing on the serious congestion area around 1.6 to 1.65 - if the SM is very bullish it's going to have to shakeout supply here to push beyond 1.65 towards 1.7 and beyond.
In December 2010 we see what I feel is really a no supply bar, followed by a clear push up of 500 pips in January, with a further push in Feb. It's clear the SM is bullish, I'm not denying that. However we're not going to sail through this congestion zone unless the SM is prepared to absorb the supply, which I find difficult to believe as there are cheaper ways of achieving the same goal but they take slightly longer
I am slightly concerned about the narrowness of the spread in Feb. The volume was higher than Jan (just) but the spread is half or less. We've not seen a spread this narrow since 2006, and that was on 1/2 the volume. This suggests to me that there possibly could have been a fair bit of supply in here for the spread to have remained so narrow. And if there is supply, it needs removed before we can leg up. It wouldn't surprise me to see further attempts to remove supply before pushing too much further up. I emphasise possibly as the next bar (March) obviously isn't complete but it's enough to make me cautious and not automatically bullish for the month of March.
I'll move onto weekly and daily in the next post. Very happy to hear comments, especially if you think I'm completely wrong on something. Every day is a learning day
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #15,004
- Mar 4, 2011 3:08pm Mar 4, 2011 3:08pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Looking at a few more charts... | 1,195 Posts
- #15,005
- Mar 4, 2011 3:13pm Mar 4, 2011 3:13pm
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #15,006
- Mar 4, 2011 3:18pm Mar 4, 2011 3:18pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Looking at a few more charts... | 1,195 Posts
Only thing i'd mention is the No Demands you've highlighted. The second one seems to have too wide a spread in my opinion, maybe i'm just being a stickler for terminology. The next bar is down, pretty much an upthrust. So I guess there was short term lack of demand.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #15,008
- Mar 4, 2011 3:25pm Mar 4, 2011 3:25pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Looking at a few more charts... | 1,195 Posts
I'd agree, I did debate that one - but I felt that as the upmove was on reduced volume (less than the previous 2 bars) it was running out of steam and therefore no demand. Besides, Tradeguider flagged it as no demand LOL
- #15,009
- Mar 4, 2011 3:33pm Mar 4, 2011 3:33pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
that does not come along often and is very bearish please try and find it
euro seems to have supply under 1.4 , but not really gone anywhere fast .
2 hour trend is still up BUT if 1.3960 breaks on monday i may be tempted for a little sell for a few , lest see what next weeks brings
OIL 105.... screw fx we should only focus on oil next week lol
euro seems to have supply under 1.4 , but not really gone anywhere fast .
2 hour trend is still up BUT if 1.3960 breaks on monday i may be tempted for a little sell for a few , lest see what next weeks brings
OIL 105.... screw fx we should only focus on oil next week lol
I had TG tag a bar with a 60pip spread as an End of a Rising Market today. Can't remember what chart. The market didn't stop rising though
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #15,010
- Mar 4, 2011 3:38pm Mar 4, 2011 3:38pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Looking at a few more charts... | 1,195 Posts
OK, the weekly. I've drawn a line which is roughly in the middle of the congestion from 2009; I'm not suggesting we've conveniently hit a resistance line, merely that we're in a congestion zone and I don't see evidence that the supply has been removed.
We can clearly see the buying in May, so we're confident as per the monthly that the SM is bullish. We're looking for evidence of the up move stopping, even if temporarily. The first time we approach this congestion zone at the beginning of August 2010 we see a 2 bar reversal and the retrace continues until the middle of September 2010, where we hit no supplys. Now the upmove continues, and when we hit the price level of the previous 2 bar reversal SOW we're not seeing conviction from the SM to push on through, technical the weekly bar is a no demand, and the next bar is down. However we do see some more buying in this bar, and we start to push into the congestion zone over the next 2 weeks (end Oct/begin Nov). Again we see no demand, and the price falls off.
To me this is screaming that the SM isn't selling, they want the price to go higher but aren't going to go bust doing so by having to absorb all the supply in this congestion zone.
Each time the price retraces we see lack of supply, at the end of November and the end of December, so we see the price rally again. In Feb, we see why on the monthly chart it is a narrow spread. We can see the supply here - decent volume upbars closing off their highs with the next bar down.
Finally, this week just past - it has pushed up but on reducing volume from the previous push up.
I'm not saying this is bearish, please don't get me wrong. All I'm saying is that despite GU being obviously bullish, I don't think we're going to see anywhere near as easy a ride as EURUSD has on its way up. I think there is still too much supply around which needs removed, which means from my point of view I think next week is more likely to be down than up. We could see a lot of ranging in GU over the next few months
We can clearly see the buying in May, so we're confident as per the monthly that the SM is bullish. We're looking for evidence of the up move stopping, even if temporarily. The first time we approach this congestion zone at the beginning of August 2010 we see a 2 bar reversal and the retrace continues until the middle of September 2010, where we hit no supplys. Now the upmove continues, and when we hit the price level of the previous 2 bar reversal SOW we're not seeing conviction from the SM to push on through, technical the weekly bar is a no demand, and the next bar is down. However we do see some more buying in this bar, and we start to push into the congestion zone over the next 2 weeks (end Oct/begin Nov). Again we see no demand, and the price falls off.
To me this is screaming that the SM isn't selling, they want the price to go higher but aren't going to go bust doing so by having to absorb all the supply in this congestion zone.
Each time the price retraces we see lack of supply, at the end of November and the end of December, so we see the price rally again. In Feb, we see why on the monthly chart it is a narrow spread. We can see the supply here - decent volume upbars closing off their highs with the next bar down.
Finally, this week just past - it has pushed up but on reducing volume from the previous push up.
I'm not saying this is bearish, please don't get me wrong. All I'm saying is that despite GU being obviously bullish, I don't think we're going to see anywhere near as easy a ride as EURUSD has on its way up. I think there is still too much supply around which needs removed, which means from my point of view I think next week is more likely to be down than up. We could see a lot of ranging in GU over the next few months
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #15,012
- Mar 4, 2011 4:38pm Mar 4, 2011 4:38pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Looking at a few more charts... | 1,195 Posts
- #15,013
- Mar 4, 2011 4:42pm Mar 4, 2011 4:42pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Looking at a few more charts... | 1,195 Posts
- #15,014
- Mar 4, 2011 5:45pm Mar 4, 2011 5:45pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #15,015
- Mar 4, 2011 6:13pm Mar 4, 2011 6:13pm
- | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,074 Posts
I had TG tag a bar with a 60pip spread as an End of a Rising Market today. Can't remember what chart. The market didn't stop rising though
Anyway, if I am big and want to flip my position, I could best do it after price has punched above previous highs. As it approaches the high, there will be naturally be supply. Afterwards, the supply has quietened, possibly buying after liquidating, as well as encouraging many new buyers to enter the market. That is where I would sell. Getting it there for a reasonable cost is of course another matter, and if that isn't possible, a different strategy would be needed (and should already be enacted).
I am thinking about speed at the moment - if I am a large, skilled participant, at what speed does movement best serve my interest, depending on my outlook.
- #15,016
- Mar 4, 2011 8:32pm Mar 4, 2011 8:32pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #15,017
- Mar 5, 2011 12:22am Mar 5, 2011 12:22am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
- #15,019
- Mar 5, 2011 3:20am Mar 5, 2011 3:20am
- Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,509 Posts
Oo woww, 1000 pages!!! All drinks on Malc