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vsa with Malcolm

  • #15,041
  • Mar 5, 2011 12:09pm Mar 5, 2011 12:09pm
Quoting Steve Gill
Both are futures chart but the second I call the 'Malc' chart because if you look in the top left corner you can see that its daily starts at 09:00, a preferred start time for Malc's sub 24hour timeframe charts. To be honest it was a mistake, I should have changed the time to 00:00 24 hour before producing that chart.
you mean both are "Futures versus Spot" charts?

Is is because you did not change the time to "00:00 24 hour before producing that chart" which is why the chart's volume looks odd?

sorry for the noob questions...
  • #15,042
  • Mar 5, 2011 2:05pm Mar 5, 2011 2:05pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Hello friends: Here is a buy stop setup off of a failed NS test into NY open from 1/8/2010. This is interesting because it shows an example of how big capital/market makers misdirect the EU market prior to a big rally.

The 1st chart is a 1H from 1-5-10 to 1-8-10 showing strength in the background; the 2nd chart is a 15M showing the failed NS test and reversal bars.

Many Thanks to the Readers and Best Wishes to All
****************
First, I love the charts (clean and clear).

There was no misdirection going on here at all. I have added a couple of things to the chart that show what was actually going on.
There was a wide spread down bar on above average volume pushing prices below a recent low. The volume is immediately tested on the next bar. Note that the test closes up (hidden). The test is good because the next bar is up. This next up bar (A) is no demand. However, this is really no demand in a vacuum. We are seeing strength in the background, this bar just means the BBs are not yet ready to go higher-but the market is not weak.

The very next bar is a squat. It makes a higher high and not a lower low than the ND bar. Also note that it closes equal to the No Demand. This bar is telling us that there is still some supply to be removed. At this point the market is telling you that any down move is not a resumption of the trend but an attempt to sponge up any residual supply.

Your (B) bar is the key. It has very high volume but the spread is narrow relative the volume. In other words, a bar with that much volume should be much wider. And the close if off the low. This is a transfer of ownership type bar. Also note that we are now in " new low territory". That is, there are no prices that can be seen on the chart to the left of this bar. This bar looks like "No Result from a Test" because it closes lower than the low of the test bar, but again, the volume and the range are telling you that demand is actually swamping supply.

Bingo. The next bar is a spring and your signal to get long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ex1.png Size: 127 KB
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #15,043
  • Mar 5, 2011 2:53pm Mar 5, 2011 2:53pm
Quoting HiddenGap
First, I love the charts (clean and clear).

There was no misdirection going on here at all. I have added a couple of things to the chart that show what was actually going on.
There was a wide spread down bar on above average volume pushing prices below a recent low. The volume is immediately tested on the next bar. Note that the test closes up (hidden). The test is good because the next bar is up. This next up bar (A) is no demand. However, this is really no demand in a vacuum. We are seeing strength in the background, this bar just means the...
Hey HG, you call bar C a squat but does a squat bar not also need high vol along with the narrow spread?

Also you say the spring is the signal to get in long based on the break of what bar? This is a two bar reversal and I thought these needed a further entry trigger / signal to get in after the two bar set-up.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,044
  • Mar 5, 2011 3:29pm Mar 5, 2011 3:29pm
Quoting pres78
Hey HG, you call bar C a squat but does a squat bar not also need high vol along with the narrow spread?
A squat is a narrow range bar (compared to the prior interval) on increasing volume (compared to the prior interval). It is more significant when the volume is higher than average. As VSA tells us the more volume the more we need to take note. But the technical definition states that volume only need be higher than the prior interval.

Quoting pres78
..Also you say the spring is the signal to get in long based on the break of what bar? This is a two bar reversal and I thought these needed a further entry trigger / signal to get in after the two bar set-up.
I have said this before, we don't want to get bogged down on nomenclature. From my point of view it is not a 2 bar reversal because it makes a lower low than the previous bar. It's a bar where price was pushed down and then demand stepped in and price "sprung" up. Therefore it's a spring.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #15,045
  • Mar 5, 2011 8:38pm Mar 5, 2011 8:38pm
Quick easy newbie question. I was watching some videos on signs of strength and they were talking about no supply bars and test bars. To me they both seem the same. isn't a test bar testing no supple? what is the difference then?
  • #15,046
  • Mar 5, 2011 9:27pm Mar 5, 2011 9:27pm
Cat among the pigeons perhaps, this screen shot is from the London Symposium. SOS 1, Bottom Reversal. The second bar has a lower low.

http://i774.photobucket.com/albums/y...g?t=1299381935
  • #15,047
  • Mar 5, 2011 10:56pm Mar 5, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting HiddenGap
A squat is a narrow range bar (compared to the prior interval) on increasing volume (compared to the prior interval). It is more significant when the volume is higher than average. As VSA tells us the more volume the more we need to take note. But the technical definition states that volume only need be higher than the prior interval.



I have said this before, we don't want to get bogged down on nomenclature. From my point of view it is not a 2 bar reversal because it makes a lower low than the previous bar. It's a bar where price was pushed...
But that's what has confused me is that bar C which is noted as a squat is the lowest vol bar making up that pattern.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,048
  • Mar 6, 2011 4:21am Mar 6, 2011 4:21am
Quoting Mtm
you mean both are "Futures versus Spot" charts?

Is is because you did not change the time to "00:00 24 hour before producing that chart" which is why the chart's volume looks odd?

sorry for the noob questions...
Sorry for the late reply, I was out drinking last night and have a hangover

Both charts are Euro Futures (not sure what you mean by futures versus spot?), but the second is a 12 hour chart which starts at 09:00, so the first bar is 9am (GMT) to 9pm, and the next bar is 9pm to 9am. Because the 2nd bar is mostly Asia volume it tends to be a lot smaller.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #15,049
  • Mar 6, 2011 5:02am Mar 6, 2011 5:02am
Quoting inks2002
Q... no supply bars and test bars. To me they both seem the same. isn't a test bar testing no supple? what is the difference then?
hello inks,
let me try.

a no supply is a narrow spread, low vol. downbar.
a test bar can be low vol or high vol. it can also be narrow or wide spread. i believe it can close at/near the middle or high. a test bar involves a rapid price mark down.
there is a significant difference.
  • #15,050
  • Edited 5:47am Mar 6, 2011 5:37am | Edited 5:47am
For the last 3 years I have researched trading, looked at all sorts of systems. Tested them. None of them could answer the one question I was asking:
How does the market work?
Then I read Tom Williams book and the lights went on. Then I read the forums and found a good bit of advice: read, practice, read, practice, for a minimum of 1000 hours screen time.

I have now reached my 1000 hours, and found that I had traded 1000 pips in a month in a demo FX account. (Euro only - for consistency sake). It is only by practice trading on the live edge that I am now totally convinced that VSA works.

Tnx. to the many and generous VSA posts in this Forum I have found much guidance. I look forward to interacting with you all some time soon.
  • #15,051
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:09am Mar 6, 2011 7:09am
i think i am seeing signs of some weakness on eu. charts attached (one with trendlines is spot the other is futures). now the volume probably isnt high enough to be certain, but the very small range 66 pips on NFP day!!!! makes friday look potentially like end of a rising market on the futures chart. also on spot, the daily volume has been creeping lower and lower every day since 3750 (perhaps odd that my spot and futures are completely different?).

i am looking at possibly sells under 3950 (trendline and a 76.4 fib). so would like to see break 3950 then come back towards it on ND. target is then 3850 and this would get us close to the ATR.

of course if strength appears off 3950 area then it will be longs instead but with far more caution on targets until 4000 is broken and tested.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #15,052
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:15am Mar 6, 2011 7:15am
Quoting ewokuk
i think i am seeing signs of some weakness on eu....
Market was excited that someone might full-fill their request finally...now they have to deal with EUZ PIIGs...BOE is not to increase rate any time soon...no matter what they do with GBP.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #15,053
  • Mar 6, 2011 7:25am Mar 6, 2011 7:25am
Good Morning Friends: I've noticed that big capital has a propensity to use penultimate swing high price as a springboard price after a low TA no supply or higher close test. This is only my anecdotal observation and hence carries no argumentative weight and should not be used in actual speculation. But if my observation has identified a valid principle then EU daily action may present a nice pull back buy opportunity as outlined in the below chart. Best Wishes for Big Profits.
**************************
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily springboard setup.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #15,054
  • Edited 8:20am Mar 6, 2011 7:57am | Edited 8:20am
Guys...

Check out this counter..
It is Weekly chart..Bullish or Bearish?
I'd like to know view with you vol analysis..

Thx
Sonic

(As for my analysis.. I believe the counter is setting up for a bear.. as per bearish engulfing candle 3 weeks ago (5.45 to 5.00)..Now it is mere doing a rebound just for load up more short, last week ends bull candle with lower vol..)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011Mar-SembMar-800x600.png Size: 19 KB
  • #15,055
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:05am Mar 6, 2011 8:05am
sonic.... That is Semb Corp Marine, Singapore stock.
From Fundamentals, the gain could be due to increased oil prices.
Weekly chart is bullish to me.

I think you should share your opinion first and be opened about it.

Quoting sonicdeejay
Guys...

Check out this counter..
It is Weekly chart..Bullish or Bearish?
I'd like to know view with you vol analysis..

Thx
Sonic
  • #15,056
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:19am Mar 6, 2011 8:19am
Quoting sgfxtrader
sonic.... That is Semb Corp Marine, Singapore stock.
From Fundamentals, the gain could be due to increased oil prices.
Weekly chart is bullish to me.

I think you should share your opinion first and be opened about it.
Member since 2007 and just 30 points..
must be a old timer here..

btw,,nice to see u here..Am from sg too..

Sonic
  • #15,057
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:22am Mar 6, 2011 8:22am
Quoting ewokuk
i think i am seeing signs of some weakness on eu. charts attached (one with trendlines is spot the other is futures). now the volume probably isnt high enough to be certain, but the very small range 66 pips on NFP day!!!! makes friday look potentially like end of a rising market on the futures chart. also on spot, the daily volume has been creeping lower and lower every day since 3750 (perhaps odd that my spot and futures are completely different?).

i am looking at possibly sells under 3950 (trendline and a 76.4 fib). so would like to see break...
IMHO the vol seen on that Friday isn't high enough to be EORM bar ... if next bar is down on increased vol and closes on the lows then perhaps a temporary new yearly high is in place. However I very much expect to have possibly Monday and Tuesday both close as downbars with a retrace into the 3780 (even into 3700) area to allow bulls to gather some more steam and form a base for the week. I just don't see them coming this close without at least visiting last years high.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #15,058
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:26am Mar 6, 2011 8:26am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Guys...

Check out this counter..
It is Weekly chart..Bullish or Bearish?
I'd like to know view with you vol analysis..

Thx
Sonic
Base on your chart it is Bullish..

Current bar is showing ND-ish but is not a bad thing & is quiet normal after u have seen absorption bars (shakeout) on the first 2 weeks of the month of Feb. Note the low of the absorption was testing previous high volume area of the 1st week of last Nov bar..
Right now & i suspect the daily is showing some hint of supply but with no previous selling pressure in the background; in fact price rallied previously on comparatively weak volume with no hint of selling pressure at all.

With that said, watch for a test on the CLOSE of the previous bar on your pic. Just below 5.3 (beween 5.2 & 5.3) level....that is a high volume area u want to watch for now..
  • #15,059
  • Mar 6, 2011 8:56am Mar 6, 2011 8:56am
Quoting kave
Base on your chart it is Bullish..

Current bar is showing ND-ish but is not a bad thing & is quiet normal after u have seen absorption bars (shakeout) on the first 2 weeks of the month of Feb. Note the low of the absorption was testing previous high volume area of the 1st week of last Nov bar..
Right...
Well said..

Thx
Sonic
  • #15,060
  • Mar 6, 2011 9:00am Mar 6, 2011 9:00am
Bias: Netural
Next stop: 1.41xx, 1.455x level
Resistance: 1.373x, 1.346x level


"It is late/expensive to buy but definitely too early to sell"..

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1299422735

Sonic

More info HERE
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