AUD/USD | Page 1422 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #28,421
  • Mar 3, 2011 2:39am Mar 3, 2011 2:39am
It's not selling pressure that will bring the Aussie down, it will be serious attrition in the buying.

No demand? Price drops all by itself.

There has been a notable slowdown in buying over the last 4 weeks. The futures volume shows a nicely formed bearish volume divergence.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
  • #28,422
  • Mar 3, 2011 2:41am Mar 3, 2011 2:41am
Quoting Anne Clare
. . . A big focus of local economic talk is the two speed
economy and how commodities is doing well . . .
^_-.
AUD is a commodity driven currency. Higher price in gold (or silver) is indicative of AUD strength. The USD on the other hand is largely energy dependent. Higher crude oil prices indicate USD weakness. STRONG AUD paired against WEAK USD means UP (BUY, LONG) for AUDUSD. I wonder if I'm making any sense here.
  • #28,423
  • Mar 3, 2011 3:25am Mar 3, 2011 3:25am
Quoting Warwick
Bravo!!!...
You know that would explain why while I've heard every other country with strong currencies worry about their strong currencies, not just because of the effect on exports, but also because of the danger of hot money inflows (and then rapid outflows), there hasn't been a peep from Glen Stevens. I thought maybe he was doing something quietly but it looks like he hasn't been.

The only time I've seen anyone actually mention anything about the possibility of hot capital is international rating agencies when they put our banks on notice for possible downgrades because they are worried about their dependence on short-term international funding (it nearly killed them during the global credit crunch).
  • #28,424
  • Edited 4:10am Mar 3, 2011 3:38am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting forexcompoun
AUD is a commodity driven currency. Higher price in gold (or silver) is indicative of AUD strength. The USD on the other hand is largely energy dependent. Higher crude oil prices indicate USD weakness. STRONG AUD paired against WEAK USD means UP (BUY, LONG) for AUDUSD. I wonder if I'm making any sense here.
Yes. But why do commodities raise the AUD? The reason is people think that high commodity prices lead to a strong Australian economy (and it usually does). It is not so much the commodity prices as it is the belief in the Australian economy that leads to high AUD. Commodity prices is just a *reason* for the Australian economy to be strong.

If the Australian economy is taken out by other factors (such as high debt levels due to housing bubbles and housing prices starting to fall), independent of commodities, the AUD would likely still fall regardless of how high commodity prices are.

Which is why I say that people betting long AUD are betting that commodities will trump everything else. To be honest though, the opinion in Australia itself from 99.9999% of the population is that commodities will save the day and the economy will never go downhill as long as commodity prices are high so I am very contrarian in my opinions. So if people listen to me, I can assure them practically everyone in this country disagrees with me ^_-. Believing the AUD can seriously fall while commodities remain high is I will admit according to all traditional theories, somewhat insane, but it makes sense to me. And I can only bet on what I personally think is going to happen.

If I'm wrong. Well at least I won't lose more than I can afford. And there's always chocolate!
  • #28,425
  • Mar 3, 2011 4:09am Mar 3, 2011 4:09am
What's happening????
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #28,426
  • Mar 3, 2011 6:04am Mar 3, 2011 6:04am
Quoting Anne Clare
Yes....
I watched silver rise from around $8 in 2008 till the present level. I can say this for sure, SILVER WOULD BEGIN A BEAR MARKET ONCE WE HIT $36.xx
Yeah, yeah, I hear you say "nothing is sure in this market" well time would tell.

As for those seeking short on AUDUSD maybe the attached chart would serve as respite for you all. There's a probable bearish butterfly being formed on daily tf. Maybe we would get a decent retrace when we hit the 127% (or 161.8%) Fibonacci Expansion level of the XA leg that's around 1.026x OR 1.035X respectively.

Happy trading!
Meshach.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au_bearish_butterfly.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #28,427
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:01am Mar 3, 2011 8:01am
shorted aud/jpy @ 83.45 TP 82.45 SL 83.80
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aj.JPG Size: 95 KB
  • #28,428
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:04am Mar 3, 2011 8:04am
Quoting forexcompoun
I watched silver rise from around $8 in 2008 till the present level. I can say this for sure, SILVER WOULD BEGIN A BEAR MARKET ONCE WE HIT $36.xx
Yeah, yeah, I hear you say "nothing is sure in this market" well time would tell.

As for those seeking short on AUDUSD maybe the attached chart would serve as respite for you all. There's a probable bearish butterfly being formed on daily tf. Maybe we would get a decent retrace when we hit the 127% (or 161.8%) Fibonacci Expansion level of the XA leg that's around 1.026x OR 1.035X respectively.

Happy...
You're just teasing me now. Cruel, cruel man. ^_^ Well, I think I'm a masochist.

Interestingly I bought silver when it was quite cheap too. I started anticipating the global financial problems in the beginning of 2007. I'm not a long-term bear or anything. Was looking to change careers into finance at the end of 2006 ( Yes I know my timing was impeccable), did some research and thought, wow, the world (especially American) financial system is unstable. All it needs is a good shove and will bring itself and the American (and hence global) economy down (given how the financial system was embedded in the real economy). So when subprime started hitting I bought a bunch of silver. Also I came across Ted Butler's silver manipulation theories. Thought well, I'm going to buy some PMs anyway so chose silver instead of gold. Then silver did quite badly after the credit crunch hit and I went through some bad times there too. The lesson I learnt was industrial use was very important for silver prices. Just like right now I'm learning that high oil prices are bad for the USD.

I agree with you though that silver is looking for a crash. I think it will go down with other commodities when QE2 is withdrawn. Also having doubts about the silver manipulaton theory now. So will probably sell at the appropriate time.
  • #28,429
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:50am Mar 3, 2011 8:50am
A/U has been following equites like a trained show dog for the last few days. Today, US market is shooting high, E/U and other currencies are spiking---- nothing from A/U. As I have said before, even when you are right, you can often be wrong.

Regards,
  • #28,430
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:06am Mar 3, 2011 9:06am
A/USD my opinion is scalp short now to 1.0100
  • #28,431
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:28am Mar 3, 2011 9:28am
Dow12,218.88+152.08+1.26%

A/U is down about 30 pips since US open. This is difficult to explain.

Regards
  • #28,432
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:35am Mar 3, 2011 9:35am
Quoting FX-Petra
Dow12,218.88+152.08+1.26%

A/U is down about 30 pips since US open. This is difficult to explain.

Regards
Ya, there's no logical explanation for it! Although price will eventually have to move "BIG" as soon as it has no where else to move within the ascending triangle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 143 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #28,433
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:40am Mar 3, 2011 9:40am
Quoting FX-Petra
Dow12,218.88+152.08+1.26%

A/U is down about 30 pips since US open. This is difficult to explain.

Regards
This is the problem with fundamental analysis. There are just too many variables. I will attempt to explain. God US data comes out. Dow rallies because the news is better than expected. It is believed that employment is the only thing stopping the us from raising rates to fight inflation. So employment data is good giving more room to the feds to consider raising rates. Note consider not actual raising. So the forex bunch buy the us$ against the 'weaker not so important' economies

That's my take. Of course this is hindsight this spill is no good to me as a technical trader
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #28,434
  • Mar 3, 2011 9:53am Mar 3, 2011 9:53am
Quoting MarcVUM
Ya, there's no logical explanation for it! Although price will eventually have to move "BIG" as soon as it has no where else to move within the ascending triangle.
Another test of the lower line looks most likely.
Mind you we're still close to that 1.0150 line
i stole off Marc's chart,thanks Marc,daily closes above make
me still pretty bullish.
Does look like it needs to pull back a bit though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p1.gif Size: 10 KB
You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #28,435
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:18am Mar 3, 2011 11:18am
Quoting MarcVUM
Ya, there's no logical explanation for it! Although price will eventually have to move "BIG" as soon as it has no where else to move within the ascending triangle.

If this were "logical", we'd all be sitting on a beach.
  • #28,436
  • Edited 12:16pm Mar 3, 2011 11:35am | Edited 12:16pm
Well, I'm just a few pips away from being stopped out on my last lot from 1.0090. Happy for the win--- but sad I did not take the trade on E/U. It broke out to new yearly highs. All we can do is to guess as to why A/U is getting beat up today.... No one really knows for sure. I would like to buy again near 1.0080 if given the chance.

Regards,
  • #28,437
  • Mar 3, 2011 11:48am Mar 3, 2011 11:48am
Hi guys, I am doing work on Fibonacci timing. The red lines are timing marks, when they go green they coincide with Bollinger band contraction. The idea is to use it to look for an entry trigger or to tighten stops.

They saved me from the "breakout" today.

Let me know what you think.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr FX AUD_USD (01-MAR-11).png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX AUD_USD (01-MAR-11).png Size: 15 KB
  • #28,438
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:11pm Mar 3, 2011 12:11pm
Quoting davidmaria1
If this were "logical", we'd all be sitting on a beach.
With a little umbrella in our cocktail!
Attached Image
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #28,439
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:17pm Mar 3, 2011 12:17pm
Had my short in at the 250 area...was hoping this would be given to me before the run for the doors!

I'm going to leave it & hope i might still get it...or we could be heading for a real test of 9800, which if broken, hopefully will hit 9200 pdq.
  • #28,440
  • Mar 3, 2011 12:22pm Mar 3, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting ely
Had my short in at the 250 area...was hoping this would be given to me before the run for the doors!

I'm going to leave it & hope i might still get it...or we could be heading for a real test of 9800, which if broken, hopefully will hit 9200 pdq.
No question you would have to be short of a solid break of 9800. May not work out... but that is a big resistance line and if it gives way the odds are in your favor that you would see some more significant downside.

Regards,
52 traders viewing now