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AUD/USD

  • #28,401
  • Mar 2, 2011 6:46pm Mar 2, 2011 6:46pm
Quoting bskwak1124
wow, very interesting data... one good one bad.... my nightmare to play this pair whenever has these kinda data....... and this little girl seems like to wanna climb more.......
More weight on bad news!
  • #28,402
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:16pm Mar 2, 2011 8:16pm
Quoting E.t
More weight on bad news!
It would appear so, even if it is somewhat subduded. AUDUSD often tracks S&P500. The latter remains steady of late, which may be the reason for the lack of significant movement on AUDUSD.
  • #28,403
  • Mar 2, 2011 8:59pm Mar 2, 2011 8:59pm
china data suggest the aud is out of steam.
and all the fundamentle chinese news is pointing south,
i reckon the top will come very soon.
  • #28,404
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:01pm Mar 2, 2011 9:01pm
Short audnzd @1.3690 earlier of day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd-o.jpg Size: 128 KB
  • #28,405
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:21pm Mar 2, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting ely
Fine so far Petra.
Trick is to keep positions small so the biting has no affect.
Kept the redies on standby for any false spikes. This is going to be one big swing down, just wander whether it'll give us a chance to ride it down!

Markets participants in the know have been calling it down since last year, with year end targets virtually showing a 40%-50% price correction on over-valuation!



"Sydney trading desks have been sending their clients bearish notes, with a recent Dow Jones Newswires survey of market participants producing some...
The contrarian indicator is back with his bearish "analysis".... guess AUDUSD will reach 1.03 this time round...
  • #28,406
  • Mar 2, 2011 9:39pm Mar 2, 2011 9:39pm
AU presented a great opportunity to add fresh longs at 1.0152 targets remain the 127% & 161.T% FE of the probable bearish butterfly on daily tf (between 1.02xx - 1.035x). Happy trading!
  • #28,407
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:07pm Mar 2, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting yakuzaking
china data suggest the aud is out of steam.
and all the fundamentle chinese news is pointing south,
i reckon the top will come very soon.
Wait until someone famous says that they want to start being paid in Aussie dollars instead of US dollars. That supermodel "Gisele" said that about 2 weeks before the Euro popped and went from 1.60 to near 1.20 in a few months. Some of us traders started calling it the "Supermodel Indicator". Supermodels and actresses are going to be the last ones on the train. If they start noticing a currency's strength, you can damn well bet it is seriously overbought and ready to correct. So I am holding out for a "Supermodel" or the like to start commenting on the Aussie strength. When that happens, I will start to roll my long pants up and make them shorts!!!! Good trades to all...

Regards,
  • #28,408
  • Mar 2, 2011 10:13pm Mar 2, 2011 10:13pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Wait until someone famous says that they want to start being paid in Aussie dollars instead of US dollars. That supermodel "Gisele" said that about 2 weeks before the Euro popped and went from 1.60 to near 1.20 in a few months. Some of us traders started calling it the "Supermodel Indicator". Supermodels and actresses are going to be the last ones on the train. If they start noticing a currency's strength, you can damn well bet it is seriously overbought and ready to correct. So I am holding out for a "Supermodel" or the like to start commenting...
Hahaha, well said. The supermodel indicator, I like it.
  • #28,409
  • Mar 2, 2011 11:18pm Mar 2, 2011 11:18pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hahaha, well said. The supermodel indicator, I like it.
what is the supermodel indicator ? my friend ,what is you idea about AU? need it .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #28,410
  • Edited 1:19am Mar 3, 2011 1:02am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting FX-Petra
I believe there are a lot of big shorts between 1.0200 and 1.257. There are also probably some big No Touch options @ 1.0300. Those shorts are nervous at these levels, not to mention the negative swap has been handing them their ass for a couple of months. I believe it will be hell to break 1.0300, at least until this quarter's options expirations at the end of this month. However, if it does give way, it should be quite a show indeed. I hope our friend ely dosen't get caught in it.

Regards,
- I dunno Petra ... I've a slightly different view. I imagine the stops atop 1.0200 aren't as big as we'd like to think, well apart from the retail guys perhaps. Truthbetold I'm not so confident we'd find high volume stop buy orders at the mentioned levels for the same reason mentioned involving swap rates. Why would I hold unto, lets say a 50 Million dollar position knowing full well I have to pay roughly 2.5 Million a year or on average ~5-6k a day in interest! We've been above parity for quite some time, or rather in the extended areas concerning price. Aussie has been on an upshoot for about 2-3 Months = 60-90 Days ... 90*6,000 = $540,000 in swap fees!!! As a big guy that would be unacceptable and as such I would cut losses in a heart beat.
  • #28,411
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:09am Mar 3, 2011 1:09am
Quoting Warwick
- I dunno Petra ... I've a slightly different view....
how sharp your analysis is .
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #28,412
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:22am Mar 3, 2011 1:22am
As a sidenote, if your into Asian exotics... USD/SGD is looking pretty interesting.

Current price 1.2676 ... target 1.2809. It moves slower than a tortoise though.
Although 1.2647 would probably be a better entry.
  • #28,413
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:27am Mar 3, 2011 1:27am
Going up, and goes up! Very carefull with shorting this beauty. Will break 1,02 and run on...

1.Carry story
2.Strong trend
3.USD weakness on the board
4.A lot of testing of influancial resistance areas on MAs strategies

Still only buying this cross.
  • #28,414
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:34am Mar 3, 2011 1:34am
Quoting Warwick
As a sidenote, if your into Asian exotics... USD/SGD is looking pretty interesting.

Current price 1.2676 ... target 1.2809. It moves slower than a tortoise though.
Although 1.2647 would probably be a better entry.

lol,what are the reasons that you edited your last post?
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #28,415
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:38am Mar 3, 2011 1:38am
Quoting geniusztc
lol,what are the reasons that you edited your last post?
lol ... good memory huh.

Its the way I am... I usually post my analysis after my moves have either panned out (for or against me).

Call me crazy but I never feel at ease with the market knowing my hands and/or positions.
  • #28,416
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:44am Mar 3, 2011 1:44am
Quoting Warwick
lol ... good memory huh.

Its the way I am... I usually post my analysis after my moves have either panned out (for or against me).

Call me crazy but I never feel at ease with the market knowing my hands and/or positions.
I never feel at ease with the market knowing my hands and/or positions

i think you must be a BIG MAN who have much money . good luck to you AND ME
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #28,417
  • Mar 3, 2011 1:52am Mar 3, 2011 1:52am
Quoting geniusztc
I never feel at ease with the market knowing my hands and/or positions

i think you must be a BIG MAN who have much money . good luck to you AND ME
Nah - hardly. gotta work and think hard...
  • #28,418
  • Edited 2:33am Mar 3, 2011 2:01am | Edited 2:33am
Quoting FX-Petra
agreed. It's NFP friday this week. Bad US number should tap down any simmering hopes of a rate increase in the next 12 months. That should, I say should, push A/U through to test 1.250. However, a good Aussie gdp number sent this pair tumbling just 2 days ago, so who the hell knows. NFP friday could provide the volitlity needed to push up to higher levels. I guess we'll just have to wait an watch the show!

Regards,
It's the opposite psychology of when the AUD was going up. Then every bad news was shaken off and the market saw the silver lining in every cloud. Now the opposite psychology is starting to take effect.

One thing I've noticed is that this negative psychology is most obvious in local trading while Europe and the US still seems quite bullish. This could be because of the current USD weakness due to ME accounts rebalancing due to high oil prices which would be during US and Europe times. However the Australian stockmarket has been doing poorly as well and I've noticed that mainstream economic commentators in Australia are also starting to turn negative (you know this economic data isn't really that good sort of comments) though still trending bullish, it could be those closest to the action starting to bail out while those further away are still bullish. A big focus of local economic talk is the two speed economy and how commodities is doing well while everything else is going downhill, including housing. This is also reflected in why you have international trade data doing well while construction starts have plummeted (even in states nowhere near the flooding). Also I suspect the news of big companies going bankrupt and bad company reports is affecting morale. It's as I said before, those betting on the AUD are betting that commodities will trump everything else in Australia going downhill.

Still the biggest news of today is gay marriage. So people aren't horribly concerned about economics just yet. I wouldn't overstate the negativity. People are still quite positive, just not as positive as before. And employment is still high and wages growth is high too.

If that theory is actually right, if the Libya situation gets resolved (or at least the USD weakness stops) at the same time as the Europe and US traders start to catch up to the local mood the AUD could fall quite sharply.

One thing I would fascinating to see is the effect of a plunge on the AUD on local psychology. For a while now there has been a local feeling that a strong AUD is a sign of a strong Australian economy. It is actually a matter of pride. The AUD is high because our economy is so great while everyone else in the developed world sucks, we're special, sort of stuff. It would be interesting to see if a fall in the AUD has the opposite effect. It would all be quite illogical of course. However when do emotions necessarily follow logic?


Of course people might want to take me as a contrarian indicator too ^_-.
  • #28,419
  • Mar 3, 2011 2:13am Mar 3, 2011 2:13am
Quoting Warwick

Call me crazy but I never feel at ease with the market knowing my hands and/or positions.
I feel the same way most times.
Biggest joker
  • #28,420
  • Mar 3, 2011 2:26am Mar 3, 2011 2:26am
Quoting Anne Clare
One thing I would fascinating to see is the effect of a plunge on the AUD on local psychology....

Bravo!!! I've been shouting that same statement for quite a few weeks having read Glen Steven's comments regarding his non-purchases of foreign currency within the past eight months (to him he didn't see a necessity) - this was bought up by the parliament.

I found it odd that no central bank would not engage in a constant (if only menial) re-balancing of their reserve books.

Then it clicked to me! These guys, rather him, are very welcoming of a high Australian dollar - to them it denotes strength, in both senses, economically and in the "mind".

It's the same thing with Canada, I remember when the Us dollar went under parity - Man o man, Canadians (some!)were at that point the most smug set of people on the face of the earth (They are cool though), I was afraid to pull US dollars out my wallet.... To them it was like winning the gold hockey medal 10 times in a row.

All in all, prideful thinking does play a major role in exchange rates.

Remember when patriotism was at it's height in the US ... the DXY was soaring high.
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