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  • #400,221
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:39am Mar 3, 2011 8:39am
Is 1.4 the next stop or is it gonna be protected by OBs?
  • #400,222
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:39am Mar 3, 2011 8:39am
Quoting cloggie
You can clearly see the difference in mandates between the FED and the ECB. I still foresee an adjustment in the FED mandate more in line with the ECB to pure monetary.

Trichet's hands are tied due to the lack of fiscal tools. The change of risk in growth gave the first run, the confirmation of a rate hike as we were looking for based on the news last week gave us the second run.

The confirmation of inflation forecast is going to give us a confirmed rate hike and not just the one in April. Commodity inflation caused by the ME troubles and the...
I find this information very helpful the timing is just when my mind starts to wonder and question myself. this prospective gets me back on track. thank you.
  • #400,223
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:40am Mar 3, 2011 8:40am
Quoting Redeemed1
Not neccessarily, as good news has been risk on. However, this rate hike talk and the pair at these levels could invite a pull back. But USD has to put on some makeup for any significant sentiment change.

Trichet did the same thing summer 2008 (+.25) and turned out to be a disaster in the fall as its weaker countries couldn't handle even a small knife to their throats...same bag of tricks, same results and maybe worse. USD will soon start to look a tiny bit more attractive IMO.
Its all in the Game isnt it Few months of rising,then ranging then falling and back again,cycle of life
  • #400,224
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:41am Mar 3, 2011 8:41am
Quoting Redeemed1
Not neccessarily, as good news has been risk on. However, this rate hike talk and the pair at these levels could invite a pull back. But USD has to put on some makeup for any significant sentiment change.

Trichet did the same thing summer 2008 (+.25) and turned out to be a disaster in the fall as its weaker countries couldn't handle even a small knife to their throats...same bag of tricks, same results and maybe worse. USD will soon start to look a tiny bit more attractive IMO.
I read potential scaling back on QE from Bernanke the other day...

Remains to be seen and they won't give the game away cheaply, as Trichet has just proved with his evasiveness on confirming rate hike...
  • #400,225
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:43am Mar 3, 2011 8:43am
Oh well i just love this part of the day and the week, a large move comes which was anticipated by many traders like me, wormboy etc etc. Ofcourse these anticipations were speculative in nature but so is every trade.

The wise traders knew beforehand that the odds were stacked in the favour of longs as soon as those 3 weekly pinbars appeared and apparently everyone and their grandmother lost their collective shit over this thinking that this is a signal to go short.

Trichets meeting today was outstanding. The actual decision for rate hikes must have leaked beforehand but it was logical since inflation is going down.

The most important comments to me today were when trichet talked about fiscal policy of the countries... he was very persistent on this topic generally dodging the comments about rate hikes yet he was not denying it. At least he was dodging the questions about if the ratehikes are going to be one big increase or repeated increases.

Its a fact that the Euro is now targetting 1.40 and 1.42 respectively, see my charts i posted previously here and in reds thread for the key supply levels.

This will be very interessting to watch certainly, as of now i will retract my comments that "shorting the euro is suicide" because this doesnt apply to the situation now anyways.

Please be mindful that people will beginn to set up SHORT positions form this level to 1.42 anticipating a stronger outlook on the US backed by other nations swallowing US debt and treasuries starting to outperform euro bonds.


Either way.

NFP:

Its not goign to matter tommorow, NFP is going to serve its purpose to kick out some longs tommorow so that bigger players can reload on their positions. Bernanke mentioned in his testimony this week that the job situation is pretty much shit right now and there has been unwillingness to hire.

Avoid the Spike, take the retrace, there will be NO trendchange for now.
  • #400,226
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:43am Mar 3, 2011 8:43am
Quoting Warwick
Calm down, there is no such thing as a free lunch.

"If you think you got it free, chances are you'll get the bill in the mail."


Was short @3941 but it felt too impulsive to me. Got out at .44

Will go short again as we near .87-89
fading the trend Warwick? that's unlike you...
  • #400,227
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:45am Mar 3, 2011 8:45am
Buy Euro

http://i.imgur.com/COdLp.png
  • #400,228
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:46am Mar 3, 2011 8:46am
so as it stands we've spiked 20 to 30 or so through 95x level, enough to batter the options barrier and flush out a few stops, normal par for the course then...
  • #400,229
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:46am Mar 3, 2011 8:46am
You haven't got your head out of your arse yet, poser? lol.
Quoting Orbital
Oh well i just love this part of the day and the week, a large move comes which was anticipated by many traders like me, wormboy etc etc. Ofcourse these anticipations were speculative in nature but so is every trade.

The wise traders knew beforehand that the odds were stacked in the favour of longs as soon as those 3 weekly pinbars appeared and apparently everyone and their grandmother lost their collective shit over this thinking that this is a signal to go short.

Trichets meeting today was outstanding. The actual decision for rate hikes must...
  • #400,230
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:47am Mar 3, 2011 8:47am
Rates across EZ moving up fast, 10yr Bund up big
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #400,231
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:47am Mar 3, 2011 8:47am
Quoting FibbinArchie
fading the trend Warwick? that's unlike you...
.... must be the lack of sleep. Quickly snapped out of it.

-ve 4 pips
  • #400,232
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:47am Mar 3, 2011 8:47am
Quoting FibbinArchie
I read potential scaling back on QE from Bernanke the other day...

Remains to be seen and they won't give the game away cheaply, as Trichet has just proved with his evasiveness on confirming rate hike...

QE will have to be scaled back as the danger foreseen last year is now playing out with commodities inflation world wide. A cocoa farmer in Kenya selling his crop to a neighbouring country will always do so in dollars as commodities are priced in dollars. 2 massive QE rounds have been a large contributing factor to commodity inflation, the Chinese appetite and the unrest in the ME were the other 2. Bernanke cannot afford to contemplate another QE round right now as even in the US inflation is coming to the foreground, see plenty of fundie news in the last few months.

The FED's duality is now hurting inflation in the US and Bernanke will need to dampen down the risk, we are in a different landscape then we were last year.

The commodity bubble will cool down naturally, if you give farmers more money for their crops, they will reinvest in more seeds/tools/land that will cause a natural cycle to start that will lead to decreasing commodity prices, which will lead to lower inflation worldwide. Both the ECB and the FED are probably counting on that cycle to happen this summer putting water on the inflation fire without interference. That will then give a natural setup for rate hikes both in the EU and the US.
  • #400,233
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:49am Mar 3, 2011 8:49am
Quoting cloggie
QE will have to be scaled back as the danger foreseen last year is now playing out with commodities inflation world wide. A cocoa farmer in Kenya selling his crop to a neighbouring country will always do so in dollars as commodities are priced in dollars. 2 massive QE rounds have been a large contributing factor to commodity inflation, the Chinese appetite and the unrest in the ME were the other 2. Bernanke cannot afford to contemplate another QE round right now as even in the US inflation is coming to the foreground, see plenty of fundie news in...
IFF ECB HIKES RATES

THE RECENT BOND SALE YIELDS GO UP

BIGGER DOOM
  • #400,234
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:50am Mar 3, 2011 8:50am
is it the worst time to go short ??
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #400,235
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:50am Mar 3, 2011 8:50am
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Treasury prices fell Thursday as a stronger-than-expected reading of U.S. weekly jobless claims led investors to step away from safe-harbor U.S. debt.
Tough-on-inflation comments from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet also weighed on the dollar and boosted global risk appetite, curbing demand for Treasurys.
Meanwhile, a lack of alarming headlines--at least for now--coming from Libya and the key oil-producing Middle Eastern and North African region, has helped soothe investor nerves, pushing down the price of oil and sapping demand for safety.
That triple whammy of risk-positive news sent Treasury prices lower, with the benchmark 10-year note down 16/32 to yield 3.531%. Bond prices move inversely to their yields.
"The jobless claims were better-than-expected, and in front of a jobs number, that has a little bit more importance," said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Holdings, referring to Friday's all-important U.S. employment report, though he noted this week's jobless claims data would not figure into Friday's number.
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped last week, pointing to continued improvement in the jobs market as the economy picks up speed.
Initial jobless claims fell by 20,000 to 368,000 in the week ended Feb. 26, the Labor Department said Thursday in its weekly report. It was the lowest level since May 2008. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected claims would rise to 400,000.
"The claims numbers accelerated some of the weakness" Treasury prices have seen recently, said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group LLC.
"Obviously, in terms of pure economic data, we're hyperfocused on non-farm payrolls; this anecdotally suggests that will be a relatively strong number," so investors are likely pulling back on Treasurys ahead of what is expected to be a strong non-farm payrolls report, Ader said.
Meanwhile, a vigilant Trichet said an ECB rate increase could come as soon as next month, intensifying his anti-inflation rhetoric and weighing markedly on the dollar, denting Treasurys.
"Trichet was hawkish, certainly...so that's putting a little pressure on the curve," Brien said.
Also putting pressure on Treasury prices was relative calm in the recent turmoil surrounding Libya, which has sent oil prices on a roller-coaster ride; Thursday, U.S. oil was down about 1%.
"The Middle East situation, while by no means stable, is now calm," Ader said. "We don't have any more exciting headlines; the result of that is the uncertainty factor that has propped up oil has pulled back a little bit."
  • #400,236
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:51am Mar 3, 2011 8:51am
Quoting Warwick
.... must be the lack of sleep. Quickly snapped out of it.

-ve 4 pips
I actually shorted around the same level, averaged @ 50 then took a small profit on the retrace back to 40, should have just kept my long from the base of the consolidation range to begin with, easy in hindsight...

You can get all the analysis and direction right, but it still boils down to trade execution and management...
  • #400,237
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:51am Mar 3, 2011 8:51am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Nice to see you posting Piters.

What are your thoughts on the following chart...

EU Daily. Looks like we're just breaking through another inverse neckline with a potential target of >1.48.
Also, FE 100 sits at 1.43 and the FE161 at 1.483.

Chart
Attachment
mate, I'll be watching 1.42-1.44 area. as we are going to test next week..
if you open monthly chart, You'll see a huge BULL FLAG.. which probably is going to be broken IF ECB hike some rates..
pay attention on levels and confluences ABC from 1287 to 4300 area and monthly HIGH at 4281

[Charts]
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: magix8.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #400,238
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:53am Mar 3, 2011 8:53am
Looks like a overshot POS at the moment...but is anybody else looking for a move to the highlighted area?

This seems to be the ideal spot for a reversal...Thats the 3 year trendline.


The question is how do you enter the trade?

Ive got started here at .3950.

2nd Short entry- .4170
3. Short entry- .4250


Any input?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.jpg Size: 132 KB
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #400,239
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:55am Mar 3, 2011 8:55am
Quoting gordonfx
go French

What do you think of this 15 min chart?
Does anyone else have the same gap.
I think FXDD froze the platform. lol
java platform gap ... he he ...
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #400,240
  • Mar 3, 2011 8:55am Mar 3, 2011 8:55am
Quoting cloggie
QE will have to be scaled back as the danger foreseen last year is now playing out with commodities inflation world wide. A cocoa farmer in Kenya selling his crop to a neighbouring country will always do so in dollars as commodities are priced in dollars. 2 massive QE rounds have been a large contributing factor to commodity inflation, the Chinese appetite and the unrest in the ME were the other 2. Bernanke cannot afford to contemplate another QE round right now as even in the US inflation is coming to the foreground, see plenty of fundie news in...

I agree QE needs to be scaled back, but what do you think they will do especially concerning monetary policy? What else do they know to do? There needs to be a massive political solution encompassing better policy. Will be tough with certain Democrats in power.
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
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