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EURUSD

  • #395,801
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:38pm Feb 24, 2011 2:38pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
where does the money coming from gold go? not into eu or ec.
This is nutty.

Even Aussie looks like it's poising to pop even higher. I have levels that are about 10 pips apart right now, need a direction out of this.
  • #395,802
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:40pm Feb 24, 2011 2:40pm
Quoting jezek5
Ice hikes oil magins,probably why they are falling.
maybe plain old profit taken.. then later the ones who bought at the top squeezed out.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #395,803
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:42pm Feb 24, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
where does the money coming from gold go? not into eu or ec.
looks like the side line
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #395,804
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:42pm Feb 24, 2011 2:42pm
Quoting jezek5
Ice hikes oil magins,probably why they are falling.
Usually margin rates go into effect after settlement, but maybe it's the open outcry settlement, which might have happened (don't know the time sheet for the contract). Might be part of it, but certainly not all of it.

I'm actually thinking about looking at using DX for E/D trade decisions. The pair is a big component, giving it near 100% correlation, and the other components of the index might serve to average out some of the noise. And there's unambiguous volume data in the futures. Can't trade it itself, though: spreads are way too big, and volume is too light.
  • #395,805
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:44pm Feb 24, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting OldQuant
Usually margin rates go into effect after settlement, but maybe it's the open outcry settlement, which might have happened (don't know the time sheet for the contract). Might be part of it, but certainly not all of it.

I'm actually thinking about looking at using DX for E/D trade decisions. The pair is a big component, giving it near 100% correlation, and the other components of the index might serve to average out some of the noise. And there's unambiguous volume data in the futures. Can't trade it itself, though: spreads are way too big,...
Hey OQ, how wide is that DX now?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #395,806
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:47pm Feb 24, 2011 2:47pm
Anyway, unless there's an event shock, probably done around here for a few hours. Pretty long right now; I don't know why the thing is here, but it is what it is.
  • #395,807
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:49pm Feb 24, 2011 2:49pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Hey OQ, how wide is that DX now?
Right now, 77.150-55, but only 2x60. And the third decimal place is $1.00 per contract. Which means $5 ticks.
  • #395,808
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:50pm Feb 24, 2011 2:50pm
Short @ 1.3803 holding. Now at BE. Would love to see hourly close below 1.3781
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #395,809
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:52pm Feb 24, 2011 2:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
looks like the side line
they might need it to further short the dollar. when I look at position reports, the majority is going short on the euro, so the buyers are fleeing or bailing or whatever... the purple area is the meat-grinder you pointed out a couple of weeks before, and the upper part appears to be a tough nut.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #395,810
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:55pm Feb 24, 2011 2:55pm
thanks OQ...talk later...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #395,811
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:56pm Feb 24, 2011 2:56pm
Stopped out
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #395,812
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:57pm Feb 24, 2011 2:57pm
PTL, if I think about it, that means DX has a $5 bid-ask on $1700 margin. A 100M E/D at 40:1 takes about $3,500 and gives a $5 bid-ask at half pip. So the equated futures bid ask is like 2 times bigger than spot, and if effective spread in spot is more like 8 decis with commission, it's getting close to equivalence.

So maybe it's not all that bad.
  • #395,813
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:02pm Feb 24, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
and the upper part appears to be a tough nut.
I've had this chart for a couple weeks, we have almost made it through that last big bear bar..almost...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart 1.gif Size: 22 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #395,814
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:07pm Feb 24, 2011 3:07pm
Quoting OldQuant
PTL, if I think about it, that means DX has a $5 bid-ask on $1700 margin. A 100M E/D at 40:1 takes about $3,500 and gives a $5 bid-ask at half pip. So the equated futures bid ask is like 2 times bigger than spot, and if effective spread in spot is more like 8 decis with commission, it's getting close to equivalence.

So maybe it's not all that bad.
Its a very good point. Use to trade it a good amount in the old days, its not a bad contract, but there was a certain period, can't recall when, maybe when the yen was going nuts, that I lost my taste for it. What TF do you see it providing some value for EUR, 15min?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #395,815
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:13pm Feb 24, 2011 3:13pm
I'm beginning to like this dixie. 22+ hours a day of traded quotes, fairly deep book, and that cute little histogram of volume-at-price that the vsa guys would probably be able to make into a forecast for next year.

I'm glad PTL brought it up last night; I always just though, "what it's good for? Too thin, too expensive, and it's just the EUR anyway." Not exactly good thinking, I'm beginning to believe.
Attached Image
  • #395,816
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:17pm Feb 24, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Its a very good point. Use to trade it a good amount in the old days, its not a bad contract, but there was a certain period, can't recall when, maybe when the yen was going nuts, that I lost my taste for it. What TF do you see it providing some value for EUR, 15min?
Yes, exactly. I was looking at the ema crossing points on the two 5-secs this AM, and there was way too much noise, and no persistent lead/lag behavior either way. 15M though, is very close in ema alignments, and the DX has some of the spikes of E/D clipped off (less stops to run, probably), which is good for anti-headfake filters.
  • #395,817
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:27pm Feb 24, 2011 3:27pm
To be honest I haven't looked at it for 10yrs, lol. When I traded it back in the day they used to quote it...say 7710/15...25 up..lol its not thin anymore. One little tid bit of trivia about the DX...It used to have an open out-cry session in Dublin to straddle the European hours before all these computers showed up. Thing is though, who ever it was we cleared had hired a lad with a thick accent. Took a couple of weeks before I could make sense of what the hell he was quoting.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #395,818
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:33pm Feb 24, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Took a couple of weeks before I could make sense of what the hell he was quoting.
Funny!

I just traded one to see what it cost. First I tried to offer inside the spread, and it complained about that. 005 is the minimum tick, so I just sold it into the bid, and then bought it right back. Commission was $2.22 a side, and the commissions from the spot trades this morning were around $2.74 per 100M. So it's almost twice as expensive as spot, for equated tick value. Kind of odd, since E/D futures are cheaper than spot, unit for unit.

But the information it contains is free.
  • #395,819
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:35pm Feb 24, 2011 3:35pm
Short again at 1.38
Disclaimer: Check your 1m charts
  • #395,820
  • Feb 24, 2011 3:41pm Feb 24, 2011 3:41pm
See ya'all later. I'm going to go download some dixie data.
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