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  • #394,481
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:46am Feb 23, 2011 9:46am
Quoting darimik
77.19 on USDx has a daily TL, may bounce from there.

this might correlate to EU 3803 ? Anyone knows the how much a 10 pip move on USDx would correlate with EU ?
nobody does.

haha that would be awesome
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #394,482
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:48am Feb 23, 2011 9:48am
Quoting Venice
Same here Archie... Only thing I hate about trading on the 5m... I love it, but man, it can really take me for a spin at times.

Happened last night as well, turned what should have been a 30 pip'er into a 15 on 1 trade (reloaded on retrace), and a +.8 on a shakeout. lol

This currency plays some dirty games at times.
aw man, was long from 690 late last night (early Asian) tight stop around 75, ended up closing @ b/e, actually a small loss, wake up to see that the stop would have barely been threatened.

Highly frustrating, but that's trading, you can not see the future...

and after a few attempts (stopped at b/e), managed to get a pretty tidy entry this afternoon anyway...
  • #394,483
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:48am Feb 23, 2011 9:48am
Quoting thorr
Hello,

So we got the situation when oil, and food are rising very quickly and ECB is expected to rise the rates?
Thats why the EUR is so strong ?
But what if the ECB will decide not to rise rates motivating rise in the prices as a temporary situation ?
and why the USD is so weak ?
i guess USD is not safe heaven anymore
Appreciate the comment
eu will drop several hundred pips.
anyway first they said they wont hike it (3rd february i guess) , then they said they might raise it next weeks... (was it friday? cant remember )....

anyway ask Clog for fundamentals....

trade your chart...its all about the technicals.


Jonas.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #394,484
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:49am Feb 23, 2011 9:49am
Quoting thorr
Hello,

So we got the situation when oil, and food are rising very quickly and ECB is expected to rise the rates?
Thats why the EUR is so strong ?
But what if the ECB will decide not to rise rates motivating rise in the prices as a temporary situation ?
and why the USD is so weak ?
i guess USD is not safe heaven anymore
Appreciate the comment
take a look what happened the last time they did this.

ptl, your people having a party?
  • #394,485
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:49am Feb 23, 2011 9:49am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Sisse, its the gold tonite if we get in that other orange box....is there a chance...
Its a trend day so the odds are very favorable until the pair Puppet Master open his mouth (ECB Trichet Speaks) right after London closes.

From a TA, a micro bear trap for some small intraday fading the highs will be enough to push this to 1.382x, right now only profit-taking taking place We'll see.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #394,486
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:50am Feb 23, 2011 9:50am
Quoting PhAnTi'
nobody does.

haha that would be awesome
Leave the correlation for the time being. Go with the charts.
  • #394,487
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:50am Feb 23, 2011 9:50am
We have popped February highs - January may not be far behind. Market may be reluctant to test here again in this session although it is still somewhat early imo.
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #394,488
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:50am Feb 23, 2011 9:50am
Quoting FibbinArchie
nailed the low, gotta learn to not get spooked out of winners so easily...



i love my cam's

a close above the WH3 will put WH4 in site

ph ogly chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h eur.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #394,489
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:51am Feb 23, 2011 9:51am
Quoting PhAnTi'
nobody does.

haha that would be awesome
someone must know. just need some historical values and excel.

will calculate the covariance later, as I am interested. I have seen gator mention the approximations for the moves.
  • #394,490
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:51am Feb 23, 2011 9:51am
Quoting FibbinArchie
aw man, was long from 690 late last night (early Asian) tight stop around 75, ended up closing @ b/e, actually a small loss, wake up to see that the stop would have barely been threatened.

Highly frustrating, but that's trading, you can not see the future...

and after a few attempts (stopped at b/e), managed to get a pretty tidy entry this afternoon anyway...
Trading is always so amazing in hindsight, 20/20 and all...

I missed out pretty good on that 'coin flip' short I threw up last night before bed. haha. Pretty sure with that one I sold the bottom
  • #394,491
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:51am Feb 23, 2011 9:51am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
Enough of the time that I'm making a decent living doing this.

It gets irrational enough that I will sit out for extended periods.

I'm just watching for traders to have that 'Oh Shiite!' moment.
Sometimes I catch it, sometimes I miss it, sometimes I get run over by the crowd going in the opposite direction.
working with the contrarian ethos, the irrational becomes rational...

Not saying I'm exactly there yet, I often have "wtf" moments, but I'm working at it...
  • #394,492
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:52am Feb 23, 2011 9:52am
Quoting sisse
Its a trend day so the odds are very favorable until the pair Puppet Master open his mouth (ECB Trichet Speaks) right after London closes.

From a TA, a micro bear trap for some small intraday fading the highs will be enough to push this to 1.382x, right now only profit-taking taking place We'll see.

sisse
Good point
Do your time and enjoy the ride...
  • #394,493
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:53am Feb 23, 2011 9:53am
Quoting kill56


i love my cam's

a close above the WH3 will put WH4 in site

ph ogly chart
gone into a minor congestion for now, but will not consider anything counter trend until London closes and even then just for scalps...
  • #394,494
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:54am Feb 23, 2011 9:54am
Quoting vonm
Souldn`t us small inventories of oil and protests in the middle east rise the oil price? High oil price = dollar down. This with eu good news should lead to an up trend? I`m not a fan of techs altough it indicates a down trend, and when fundies and techs are not going the same direction it`s a trend change (or someone taught me wrong). Need someone to contradict me to stop my loss and go short on a long term.

went against my way of thinking; don`t know how much eu will go up
  • #394,495
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:54am Feb 23, 2011 9:54am
alright, not taking any chances here. closing everything, going to lunch.

cu later, guys.
  • #394,496
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:55am Feb 23, 2011 9:55am
Quoting darimik
someone must know. just need some historical values and excel.

will calculate the covariance later, as I am interested. I have seen gator mention the approximations for the moves.
nope you cant. maybe you can calculate a tendency ....but a avergae value wont help you to spot S+R etc...
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #394,497
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:55am Feb 23, 2011 9:55am
Massive shakeout of longs on Monday night / Tuesday would suggest, we have more upside to come, we'll see...
  • #394,498
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:55am Feb 23, 2011 9:55am
Quoting FibbinArchie
gone into a minor congestion for now, but will not consider anything counter trend until London closes and even then just for scalps...
I see this as well. Just seeing a minor pullback to let it rest before we complete the upmove to R2.

Then again, one of my biggest issues right now, is getting rid of the idea that price 'has to' complete certain levels.

More often then not, it goes and gets it's pips, but those times when it doesn't can really leave you hanging high and dry.
  • #394,499
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:55am Feb 23, 2011 9:55am
it would be nice if 3786 was taken with conviction
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #394,500
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:56am Feb 23, 2011 9:56am
Quoting Mr Hatch
alright, not taking any chances here. closing everything, going to lunch.

cu later, guys.
and phanti going to deliver some pizzas next 6 hours......

moonlighting.

see ya tomorrow guys.
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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