CHOROS System

Nice scalp there my friend. +12p doesn't sound like a lot to newbies but for my plan is 40% of daily target.

Thought this deserved its own post...

One thing I've noticed with the pound tonight has been its strong reaction with the M30 10. It hasn't closed below it, even on M15 and has bounced off it consistently since NY close!

I don't normally don't look at M30, and I only added it because, when I added a second MTF to put H4 on the chart, it had a leftover buffer, so I just set it to M30 and set the lines to the small dotted ones, so they wouldn't be too distracting.

Does anyone use this TF?

You could have taken every single touch since NY close until now, for a winner every time, with the maximum stop at 10 pips, and there's been a lot of touches.....

Interesting but don't confuse yourself.
If you find that over the long run the M30 works for you, use it and stick with it, but don't try to use both M15 and M30. These two are two close in time and they can be distracting. Also if you use M30 don't look at H1 for higher TF but rather H4.

AUDEUR looks constrained by the 15M 50 EMA and by the 1H 10 EMA. It currently struggles with the 0.7300 level. If it breaks convincigly below it then it could go all the way to the next important support at 0.7200.

I was experimenting on MA's and EMA 14 on M15 had a similar effect.

Guys,
Before everybody starts finding new TFs and new MAs that work, keep this in mind:
1. There are probably many MAs that price reacts to. If you start expecting the price to bounce from everywhere it will get very confusing.
2. If you thing you have discovered an MA that price respects more than the ones we use, then put it in your charts, observe it for a few weeks, trade it for a few weeks and if it still looks good post it here for further discussion.
3. Sometimes specially for beginners it may be best to concentrate on just one MA and one TF
4. Most important TFs and MAs are the most common ones which means that they are the ones that most people use, which is why price reacts there, most of the time.
5. KISS (no, no, not that KISS but Keep It Simple Stupid)

Fair enough, mate. As I said, those lines have been there since I added H4 and I've been ignoring them, and that's why I made them look insignificant.

I just thought it very interesting, and worth at least a look, as there is often a lot of time to do that.

Of course, you'd only act on it once it proved its consistency, as it could be just a fluke, one swallow doesn't make a summer. I haven't checked back, but just noticed today's action.

I'm in at the retracement (15M 10 EMA touch) with a stop loss at 0.7306. Let's see how it goes.

a nice confluence of 35/50 and RN on EU this morning for +35 pips.
was waiting for the PA and the pinbar was perfect.
TP at the high of the day in this strong trendmarket.

You are right, it is better to keep the thread clean, I only put the ema 14 on my chart since it was mentioned by Clay for the 1M version of the dance (I'm not using the minute it I absolute hate small TF), I will keep it as a smal shadow on my M15 to see how the price reacts even though it is to close to ema 10 and the different will be very small. I will post again if it's any value with entry and closing charts.

I moved the stop loss to BE. Take profit at very ambitious level, 0.7210. I may exit earlier though - assuming I'm not stopped out.

Looks good in the 1H so far:

i couldnt resist: a pinbar, 61% fibo and 35/50, another + 27 with half sice.

Halfway there; I've trailed the stop to the high of the hour

Got stopped. In the 15M it looked like a nice chance to enter (10 EMA touch) but the 1H formed a very pointy pinbar. On to the next one.

I'm curious however to see whether it will finally go all the way down to 0.7200

Welcome to the game bro. I am really happy to see at least few constrainment trades being posted. Awsome work. Soon you will discover how much fun they are.

Nice micmic!
Constrainments is something that we need to develop in this thread. Keep posting your charts/trades.

CHOROS!!! Works great...

Hey JESS this this best for trend change picker upper and adding positions... 2nd picture tells it all...

please ignore my indicators...

50pip move
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1298513017

Position adding mode trade for JESS... add to you position on every retrace for max profits...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...4&d=1298513361

Four good trades, and one so-so, today, and I missed them all.

1) Constrainment. This constrainment, with a couple of small hiccups, lasted for 20 bars on the M15. It’s less well formed on the H1 but goes for 5 or 6 bars. I saw this one when it was about four bars in. I had already been burned on one off hour trade in the afternoon. So I thought “I wonder if Survivor would take this now.” But instead of watching, I was away from the computer and then went to bed. By the 15th bar, this trade is simply crying out that it needs to be traded. Good for 30-40 pips, plus whatever Survivor milked from the lead up bars. The question I have here is which bar would you first enter on? And also, if you milked it, how many pips would you be looking to take per round?

2) 10 Touch. Winner, BE or Loser. This is almost a perfect 10 Touch trade.. Steep MA, two bar retrace, little resistance ahead, and a confluence with an RN. If you took this at the touch with a 9 pip stop, as Clay recommends, it’s a loser by less than a pip. With a bigger stop, and a 15 TP, its an easy winner. But if you shot for more than 15 pips, it should come back and break even on the re-test of the RN. That’s how I see it by the rules. And this is where I am puzzled. Kostas played basically the same trade and held it past the RN retest, for big gains. Will upped his bet when it came down to the RN, and did really well on it. Bigtent took the RN as a separate trade, got stopped on the touch trade, but made out on the RN trade. The differences in approach here puzzle me. I don’t know what I would have done if I had been up. My guess is that I would have played it according to Clay’s rules, got taken out by half a pip, and then stare at the forum in amazement at other people’s success.

By the way, I do have an opinion about the news. I think its a very bad idea to enter into trades right when news breaks, and during the immediate shifts that follow the breaking news. But, if you are already in a dance trade, and the news is coming up, I don’t see any reason to get out of the trade. Kostas has observed that the news seems to respect the Dance. I don’t know if that’s true or not. But the news does seem to amplify whatever is happening. So, if you are in a Dance trade already and the news breaks, you might get a really big swing. If it goes in your favor, they you will probably hit a much bigger profit than usual (and this will cause you to remember how well the Dance fits with the news). But if the trade turns against you, you will simply hit your stop, with maybe a slight bit of slippage. Compared to the potential upside, I think the slippage risk is pretty small. So, all in all, I think sticking with a Dance position when news is about to break is a good bet.

3) 10 Touch. The MAs are steep, and its a one bar retrace. I think its definitely a by the rules trade. But I passed on it anyway. The upspike 3.5 hours earlier basically respected this same level, and the Daily R2 and a Round number are just above this touch. On top of that, the two bars before the pullback are a doji/pin followed by a hanging man. These things combined made this a no trade for me. (Here, my question is when, if ever, I should start seeing these signs as a signal on its own?)

4) 35 Bounce. This is a bad trade that was good for 30 pips. I saw this trade coming, and knew I would be tempted to take it against my better judgment. So instead, I went back to sleep and called it a day. The MAs are diverging, and there was almost a touch of these MAs a few hours back. In this instance, I would first want to pass on the trade. Then, I would be tempted to wait for a touch of the 50, instead of taking the trade off the 35. Here, I would want that because of the potential confluence with the Daily R1. In hindsight, I should have stayed up and waited for confirmation for this trade on the M5. There was a nice engulfing candle there that provided a decent entry signal.


5) 50 Bounce. No trade. The MAs are way too far apart now, and the 50 is actually pointing the wrong direction. Often, after a first bounce off the 35, you will get another Bounce from the 50 on the next go round. But this one is no set-up at all.

The rest of these are after London close, so are not by the rules.

6) 50 Bounce / 10 Touch. This is an almost ideal break of the MAs followed by a retrace to the 50 in confluence with the 10. The break is only 16-17 pips, which is a bit small. The bounce itself is at the conjunction of the 50 and the 10, and the Daily R1 is also now supplying some resistance. Good for 25-35 pips.

7) Higher Time Frame Confluence. This is not strictly a dance trade, but it definitely follows dance principles. There’s a confluence here of a strong S/R line, the M15 200, the H1 35, and the H4 10 and 35. (The Daily 5 is also right in the neighborhood, but not as close as the others.) If not taken as a touch, it would be easy to get in after the hammer on the H1 or even on the H4.

8) 10 Touch. This trade breaks the two bar rule, but I don’t think thats the reason not to take it. Rather, all the confluence that is in favor of taking trade 7 also says to pass on this one.

9) 35 Bounce. I have mixed opinions on this trade. It’s off hours, and the higher time frames are now all bullish, so that counsels against taking the trade. The 35 is still pretty steep, but the 50 is almost dead flat. On the plus side, the Daily R1 is supporting the trade. As a touch trade, its probably a loser, unless you moved to break even or took profit very fast. Here, if you waited for confirmation on the M5, you might get into the trade after a near pin, followed by a bearish engulfing candle. And that would lead to a pure loser.

Charts in order are M15, H1, H4 and M5.

I mentioned in my summary about being burned on an off hours trade yesterday, so I thought I should probably post it. Here's what I wrote in my journal:

I entered this trade because it looked like a perfect confluence of the H1 62, 50, 50SMA, and 35. It was off hours, and that was a bit of a danger sign. But all the MAs are pretty steep and they are right on top of each other. I entered with a limit order as a touch trade. I initially lefth the stop right where you can see it, just above the Daily Pivot. I planned on taking out half profit at 15 pips, and letting the other half maybe run back to the Daily S1.

The trade never went anywhere in my favor. It got to +3 briefly twice. Then it spent 15 mins hovering between +3 and -1.5. and then it took off in the wrong direction. If I had held to my stop, it would have missed my stop by less than a pip. But the stop was big, and I had no confidence at that point (which may have been my failing on this trade). Also, I had a yoga class to go to, and couldn’t stay to manage the trade for much longer -- which is even a lamer reason for getting out when I did. Anyway, I closed manually at about -15.7 pips ( I tried to get out at 15, but there was movement between my impulse and the actual click).

Immediately afterward, price fell back in my favor, and even got to +11 pips. In the end, it should either have been a 9 pip loss, or a break even trade. I managed to get the worst of both possibilities.

Actually, what I should have done is wait for a Kostas style confirmation on the M5. If I had done that, I might actually have had a winning trade on this one. So in the future, when going for a higher time frame trade, it will be best not to take the trade off the touch on the higher time frame. Instead, wait for confirming price action on a lower time frame. The moves tend to be big enough that the lost pips won’t be that big a deal. Here’s what ideally should have happened.

First chart is H1 of the entry. Second chart is M5 showing what I think I should have done. Third chart is M15 showing the actual exit.