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  • #9,981
  • Feb 13, 2011 1:41am Feb 13, 2011 1:41am
Quoting normtold
Thanks for the reply smikester,

I do like this technique, just trying to hone it a bit.

I always set a buy order if the price is above the daily open and vice versa but the thing I have found is sometimes price will hit my buy or sell order go a couple of pips and then go the other way, which is annoying.
well, this is not a high win-rate technique. So either get used to that or look for another method.
  • #9,982
  • Feb 13, 2011 11:36am Feb 13, 2011 11:36am
Quoting Custos
well, this is not a high win-rate technique. So either get used to that or look for another method.
Yeah, right you are then.
  • #9,983
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:39am Feb 19, 2011 11:39am
again the only thing that was interesting enough to buy last week was the GBP since it broke out in friday

and i bought it (see attached chart)

also the Usd/Chf became interesting when it broke south on friday but gave no Signal (IB)

i am Be on the GBP already lets see where this one will go

Later
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #9,984
  • Edited 2:24pm Feb 22, 2011 10:55am | Edited 2:24pm
Ive just discovered this technique, it sounds very promising.

If the opening bar in a down bar, are we only looking for short trades below the opening/ close price?

Or can we go long or short, just switch the type of trade in regard to whether current price is above/ below opening.

Looking forward to backesting this.

Edit- got the answer now.
  • #9,985
  • Feb 22, 2011 2:23pm Feb 22, 2011 2:23pm
Quoting Custos
well, this is not a high win-rate technique. So either get used to that or look for another method.
I just back-tested this and got a winning trade % of 40. Breakeven was 35% so I would agree.

Cracking little system.
  • #9,986
  • Feb 23, 2011 9:57am Feb 23, 2011 9:57am
Have read through the original thread and then over Peters posts a couple of times.
I pick something else up each time I re-read.

Something I used to do was take profits too early never giving them a chance to grow.

I trade G/U E/U U/J E/G and E/J on the 1H TF and
N/U G/J U/C DJIA and Silver on the 4H TF.

I take 2/3 at 1:1 and let the rest run at the original S/L.

Now I have a problem I have never had to deal with before, knowing when to close. I have 17 open trades all in profit and wondering if and when to move the stops.
I do want to give them the best chance to carry on going.

Peter mentioned using a SMA, 20 I think.
Or a trendline break.

For those using an MA crossover what periods and method do you use?
Would be interesting to hear your choice of trailing stop.
  • #9,987
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:15am Feb 23, 2011 11:15am
This can be a frustrating method when it comes to taking profit or closing trades. I use this strategy mostly on H1. I'm picky about which ones I take and I hate it when I miss a good one. I would take an H1 trade on a pair that is trending well such as the swissy recently. I generally trail with a Donchian(28) mid channel which equates roughly to a 30 sma, on the time frame I opened the trade. If I get a reversal bar I will often close. If it runs, I will move up a time frame and trail there. If that does well I'll move up another time frame. It's been a choppy year so far so not many good runners. What a great system though.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,988
  • Feb 23, 2011 5:14pm Feb 23, 2011 5:14pm
Quoting normtold
Have read through the original thread and then over Peters posts a couple of times.
I pick something else up each time I re-read.

Something I used to do was take profits too early never giving them a chance to grow.

I trade G/U E/U U/J E/G and E/J on the 1H TF and
N/U G/J U/C DJIA and Silver on the 4H TF.

I take 2/3 at 1:1 and let the rest run at the original S/L.

Now I have a problem I have never had to deal with before, knowing when to close. I have 17 open trades all in profit and wondering if and when to move the stops.
I do want to...
regardless of what you use it is you that needs to be comfortable with it and happy with the overall outcome. The larger the Moving Average the better chance you have of staying in the trade longer and not being stopped with the smaller pullbacks, the drawback is the number of pips/% of profit that you give back should the market have a stronger pullback. You could also trail the last swing low/high which will give you a good chance as the market steps it way up or down but once again you can give back larger profits for the sake of being in for longer. Another swaying factor can be the position size. You could have a significant runner that because of the initial risk the position is loaded giving you greater $/pip returns. In this case you can scale out some of your position at 1 moving average and use a slower moving average for the last portion.

After a few years of this I have found that there is no real answer except the one that "allows growth over a longer term" and "what you are comfortable with". Trail the remaining portion and forget about it, if it gets stopped it doesnt matter, your task at hand is to spot the best opportunitys. On another note you will find that at most times, where you get stopped out will be another opportunity to get back in with a new setup.

RT
  • #9,989
  • Feb 24, 2011 5:31am Feb 24, 2011 5:31am
Thanks both for the replies.

A lot of good information in those posts so I will read them a couple of times at least.
Some things I will need to look up like the "Donchian mid channel" just to find out wht it's about even if the 30 SMA is a simple concept to understand

You are right I need to be comfortable with whatever method I use to close and trail my positions.

I have scaled out of some of the positions and I do like the idea of moving stops to the last swing high/low, did that on a couple and still left over 100 pips distance which I am comfortable with.

Just like to add that this is all on a demo account so was not bigging myself up but just trying to learn more of the trade management side of things.
  • #9,990
  • Feb 24, 2011 5:39am Feb 24, 2011 5:39am
Quoting normtold
Just like to add that this is all on a demo account so was not bigging myself up but just trying to learn more of the trade management side of things.

I still have a demo account for times when I am not quite sure something will work out but want to put it in play, it can be a handy tool to help further the skill set without risking the actual capital in play so it is smart to use that until you are comfortable and clear with what you want to do with your trading.

RT
  • #9,991
  • Feb 24, 2011 7:03am Feb 24, 2011 7:03am
Quoting normtold
Donchian mid channel
I don't know how much you know about support and resistance, but one thing I like to do is draw a line where the upper or lower channel line forms a significant flat line. I do this on the monthly, weekly, daily, H4 and H1. I have learned so much by observing what price does at these levels, especially where the lines cluster...
Gone to a better place
  • #9,992
  • Mar 5, 2011 2:51am Mar 5, 2011 2:51am
Thanks for the replies.

You are right RT, the demo account has been an invaluable tool for me and I am pleased it allowed me to learn from my mistakes without losing real money. I feel I am making progress but many more bumps need ironing out before thinking of going live.

Smikester, since reading your reply a few days ago I have been putting into practise plotting resistance and support lines on those TF's mentioned using different colours for each TF.
So this is another tool in the box to try and weed out bad trades.

One query I have is regarding the "hot hands" that Peter and others since him have mentioned.
If trading the 1H TF, is this a matter of looking at the daily chart and finding a pair that is trending well at that time?

I am not clear what method is used to determine the Hot Hands.
  • #9,993
  • Mar 5, 2011 2:59am Mar 5, 2011 2:59am
Quoting normtold
Thanks for the replies.

You are right RT, the demo account has been an invaluable tool for me and I am pleased it allowed me to learn from my mistakes without losing real money. I feel I am making progress but many more bumps need ironing out before thinking of going live.

Smikester, since reading your reply a few days ago I have been putting into practise plotting resistance and support lines on those TF's mentioned using different colours for each TF.
So this is another tool in the box to try and weed out bad trades.

One query I have is...

I use this to find the hot hand
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163158
  • #9,994
  • Mar 5, 2011 4:53am Mar 5, 2011 4:53am
Quoting peterporter
I use this to find the hot hand
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163158
Now that looks interesting. Thank you for the link. Hanover is one of the most generous posters on these forums. May I ask: What time frame do you find most helpful with this indicator?
Gone to a better place
  • #9,995
  • Mar 5, 2011 9:39am Mar 5, 2011 9:39am
Quoting smikester
Now that looks interesting. Thank you for the link. Hanover is one of the most generous posters on these forums. May I ask: What time frame do you find most helpful with this indicator?
Before I answer, I have not used the DIBS mtheod much but I understand what you mean by the hot hand and basically the currency that shows extreme high and extreme low on most the timeframes is the one i would go for (that is the Timeframes either side of the TF i am trading from )
Therefore if its 1h as used by dibs I would br great to see at least 30m and 4H with the same extremes ie GBP at the bottom and JPY at the top thus showing it to be the hot hand for today
I want to start using Dibs soon but other systems keep getting in the way

Hope that helps smikester
  • #9,996
  • Apr 5, 2011 3:54am Apr 5, 2011 3:54am
On the 1H charts we should buy above the daily open and sell below the daily open but for those of you trading inside bars on the H4 charts can you tell what criteria you use to determine long or short direction?

Do you perhaps look at the open 5 days ago? Or maybe just the open of the new week on Mondays?

Also can you tell me if you trade any inside bar on the 4H or should you only take the ones during trading hours like 8am, 12 noon, 4 pm GMT on GBP/USD and EUR/USD?

Thanks for any guidance.
  • #9,997
  • Apr 5, 2011 4:24am Apr 5, 2011 4:24am
A couple of things here: Always trade in a strong trend. This means there will be fewer inside bars than usual. Secondly, beware of your broker feed. Lots of useless inside bars between 8pm and midnight GMT as it's in between sessions. Sorry if these points are a bit obvious.
Gone to a better place
  • #9,998
  • Apr 5, 2011 12:29pm Apr 5, 2011 12:29pm
Thanks for the pointers.

Trading a strong trend, I see that as after a strong move up, followed by indecision/consolidation, if an inside bar forms set a buy stop 1 pip plus spread above IB, opposite for a sell minus the spread of course.

The second point you mention was the reason I posted, I assume if using the 4H charts only those formed during busy trading times should be used.

Maybe 4 H is not suitable fror this IB technique, perhaps D1 would be better.
  • #9,999
  • Apr 19, 2011 11:44am Apr 19, 2011 11:44am
I took following trades based on on GMT 005 (day open).
I understand and agreed that losses are part of this business.
I just want to make sure that I took the right setup.
Can anybody please look my trades if they are within the rules.

Thanks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,000
  • Apr 19, 2011 12:04pm Apr 19, 2011 12:04pm
The EUR/USD is a great trade. This is an uptrend on the daily and looks as though it tested support before going on to test the recent highs.

Not sure why you would want to buy the dollar, though. Possibly USD/CHF might show some strength and maybe USD/JPY might turn soon. But if you look at the daily these are not strong trades yet.

I think they all fit the rules. Just not all good trades.
Gone to a better place
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