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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,481
  • Feb 22, 2011 12:43am Feb 22, 2011 12:43am
Japan’s credit rating outlook was changed to negative from stable and that should help to push this pair higher, if it were not for the middle east stuff going on at the moment!! Swissy is in the same boat too.

Meantime, spare a thought for my Kiwi friends in Christchurch who are suffering the effects of yet another big earthquake. This time it was ony 5km deep and it happened in the city centre at lunchtime......the city is a real mess and many people lost and trapped
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,482
  • Feb 22, 2011 12:54am Feb 22, 2011 12:54am
Quoting realjumper
Meantime, spare a thought for my Kiwi friends in Christchurch who are suffering the effects of yet another big earthquake. This time it was ony 5km deep and it happened in the city centre at lunchtime......the city is a real mess and many people lost and trapped
My thoughts are with them.
With 65 confirmed deaths already, it's bound to rise unfortunately.
  • #22,483
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:03am Feb 22, 2011 1:03am
Quoting fosking
My thoughts are with them.
With 65 confirmed deaths already, it's bound to rise unfortunately.
Thank you. Yes, there is still 200+ people missing and one 6 story building pancaked all the way to the ground. Don't know how many are inside. It's very sad as they were just getting over Septembers quake. We get lot's of quakes here but the worst thing that ever happens is stock falls off the supermarket sheves etc.....this one was different though.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,484
  • Feb 22, 2011 4:47am Feb 22, 2011 4:47am
Quoting realjumper
Thank you. Yes, there is still 200+ people missing and one 6 story building pancaked all the way to the ground. Don't know how many are inside. It's very sad as they were just getting over Septembers quake. We get lot's of quakes here but the worst thing that ever happens is stock falls off the supermarket sheves etc.....this one was different though.
My thoughts and sympathy to all NZ residents...

We live in such uncertain times. Natural disasters, new uprisings on a daily basis, although im "just" 22, I sure do miss the 90's and early 2000's ....

It seems whatever the belief, that we trod an unsustainable path...
  • #22,485
  • Feb 22, 2011 7:39am Feb 22, 2011 7:39am
http://bsdfin.com/img/dm-912983819469.png
  • #22,486
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:17am Feb 23, 2011 11:17am
Quoting realjumper
Thank you. Yes, there is still 200+ people missing and one 6 story building pancaked all the way to the ground. Don't know how many are inside. It's very sad as they were just getting over Septembers quake. We get lot's of quakes here but the worst thing that ever happens is stock falls off the supermarket sheves etc.....this one was different though.
We can only offer good thoughts & prayers from the other side of the globe. Thank goodness NZ is a well off and robust society but, the loss of life can never be undone.

I've been selling upthrusts on UJ for some time now; thought 82.46ish would hold it, but the churn down is seemingly strong & consistent. If we don't pause & retrace here, 81.6 is probably in the cards. Frankly, I'm out of trendlines to draw, not unusual given the anti-gravity nature and bottom dwelling nature of this beast.

I find it interesting how the Japan/Yoda component that was so prevalent pre-intervention has seemingly evaporated away. It shows me that political populism is alive and well in Japan, in stark contrast to much else in that wonderful land.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,487
  • Feb 23, 2011 11:31am Feb 23, 2011 11:31am
Quoting Beljevina
We can only offer good thoughts & prayers from the other side of the globe. Thank goodness NZ is a well off and robust society but, the loss of life can never be undone.

I've been selling upthrusts on UJ for some time now; thought 82.46ish would hold it, but the churn down is seemingly strong & consistent. If we don't pause & retrace here, 81.6 is probably in the cards. Frankly, I'm out of trendlines to draw, not unusual given the anti-gravity nature and bottom dwelling nature of this beast.

I find it interesting how the Japan/Yoda component...
lol Bel, your chart gives me headage.

As a USD-Bear I should be short:
Attached Image


As a contrarion I should be long but not right now
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,488
  • Feb 23, 2011 12:22pm Feb 23, 2011 12:22pm
Quoting USD-Bear
lol Bel, your chart gives me headage.

As a USD-Bear I should be short:
Attachment

As a contrarion I should be long but not right now
LOL, you should see the daily view of the chart

I'm thinkin' we might be in for some sort and length of a bounce ... there's been some pretty defined selling and this is certainly NOT the year of the dollar IMO, but the news isn't all bad, it's been 150 pip straight down more or less, and if the S&P doesn't get back up to 1350, then we might have that zig up, in it's zig-zag nature.

This 82.3/4 area has pretty good bounce potential; could be said volume's getting absorbed, for a leg up of at least say 40-50 pips. Of course, I might have said the same at that previous high volume level at 82.585, but then we got into a no demand situation on the rise.
Attached Image
  • #22,489
  • Feb 23, 2011 1:39pm Feb 23, 2011 1:39pm
Quoting Beljevina

I find it interesting how the Japan/Yoda component that was so prevalent pre-intervention has seemingly evaporated away. It shows me that political populism is alive and well in Japan, in stark contrast to much else in that wonderful land.

Well for one, intervention is a very expensive endeavor, to be honest, it serves very little purpose in my eyes. Rarely does it do it's intended job - Heck, the only real benefactors from intervention (jpy at least) are the Carry Traders( Hate those guys - )... Perhaps Yoda' learned this the hard way.

CONSTANT Interest payments + Plus the positive risk of instant JPY depreciation .... Pornography for the carry trader
  • #22,490
  • Feb 24, 2011 1:55am Feb 24, 2011 1:55am
Pair just went to 81.88. That was unexpected, at least for me. I thought 82.00 could hold this without breaking sweat. Hmm. Think it may be time to start longing this pair.
  • #22,491
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:00am Feb 24, 2011 2:00am
Be careful. It looks tempting but.....
  • #22,492
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:31am Feb 24, 2011 2:31am
Quoting Astroman
Be careful. It looks tempting but.....
tks - thought about it. Think it is worth the risk. Longs are taken at 81.90.

So much for the long-held belief that USD is the "go-to safe haven" in times of crisises.
  • #22,493
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:37am Feb 24, 2011 2:37am
Quoting Amanda2
tks - thought about it. Think it is worth the risk. Longs are taken at 81.90.

So much for the long-held belief that USD is the "go-to safe haven" in times of crisises.
whatch out for that H&S on USDX a few posts ago.
Not saying it's relevant as most H&S's aren't, but reaction @ 77.60 is interesting....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,494
  • Feb 24, 2011 2:45am Feb 24, 2011 2:45am
Quoting Warwick
Well for one, intervention is a very expensive endeavor, to be honest, it serves very little purpose in my eyes. Rarely does it do it's intended job - Heck, the only real benefactors from intervention (jpy at least) are the Carry Traders( Hate those guys - )... Perhaps Yoda' learned this the hard way.

CONSTANT Interest payments + Plus the positive risk of instant JPY depreciation .... Pornography for the carry trader
I think Noda and Kan are too chickenshit to have a another try with intervention. Last time they did it Obama growled at them.....at tad hypocritical.....but never-the-less. Quite why they 'do as they're told' is anyones guess.

Anyhow, we are still in the same pattern, and longs don't look likely yet.....in another 50 or so pips south....maybe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,495
  • Feb 24, 2011 1:33pm Feb 24, 2011 1:33pm
I tend to agree with Amanda2 on this, anyone else on board. Now at trend line, Cable and fiber seem to be struggling at their levels and the GPB/JPY has now retraced down to 38% levels. This pair is down to daily trend line and has retraced 79% from its recent break north. Market still at highest overbought levels since 1999, with social unrest in Middle East rush to USD must be round the corner ... any thoughts?
  • #22,496
  • Feb 24, 2011 4:51pm Feb 24, 2011 4:51pm
Quoting bucko
I tend to agree with Amanda2 on this, anyone else on board. Now at trend line, Cable and fiber seem to be struggling at their levels and the GPB/JPY has now retraced down to 38% levels. This pair is down to daily trend line and has retraced 79% from its recent break north. Market still at highest overbought levels since 1999, with social unrest in Middle East rush to USD must be round the corner ... any thoughts?
The reversal will come....and for the swissy too, but when is a matter of conjecture. I doubt that there will be a rush to the USD. USD no longer is the preferred 'safe haven'. That falls to the Yen, the Swissy and Gold. Take a look at the charts, it's easy to see.

Having said that, the usd/jpy pair *may* be ready for another rally as it is closing in on the bottom of the wedge pattern I posted above, and have posted for a while now. Also, the swissy is a new record levels. However, neither pair is showing signs of reversal yet. The USD Index may be about to double bottom.....or not.

Wait for confirmation because the ass could fall out of this much more yet....we are in uncharted territory. Caution is the key!!

5c
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.jpg Size: 40 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,497
  • Feb 24, 2011 5:35pm Feb 24, 2011 5:35pm
Quoting realjumper
The reversal will come....and for the swissy too, but when is a matter of conjecture. I doubt that there will be a rush to the USD. USD no longer is the preferred 'safe haven'. That falls to the Yen, the Swissy and Gold. Take a look at the charts, it's easy to see.

Having said that, the usd/jpy pair *may* be ready for another rally as it is closing in on the bottom of the wedge pattern I posted above, and have posted for a while now. Also, the swissy is a new record levels. However, neither pair is showing signs of reversal yet. The USD Index...
adjusted my lines a little to reality:
D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0007.png Size: 65 KB


I'm glad UJ isn't the only pair to supply bread and butter, 81.3 next POI for me. Wise words, think all comes down to strength/weakness of the Yen as we all now the "strength" of USD
For bulls we have to see real Yen-weakness, we see it sometimes but sporadic, I'll keep looking at some continued weakness for position trades and while waiting all we can do is scalp a little.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,498
  • Feb 26, 2011 4:09am Feb 26, 2011 4:09am
USD/JPY is traded right above the rising support line and we will see a perfect example of using divergences if and when it bounces from the rising trend line. Braking though that line is unlike as it has connected three bottoms since November of 2010.

This is in keeping with dollar index (DXY) technical analysis (the picture below)

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-R...divergence.png

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-7.../s1600/dxy.png
  • #22,499
  • Feb 26, 2011 5:55am Feb 26, 2011 5:55am
Hi all,

As i see, there are lots of divergences not just once also twice. These have to play out sooner our later, so, i put long stops and open for the long. If it falls last time then we should reach 79 ishthen spikes up fast but if it goes up slower, takes time to reach 90 my first and last target for uj.

Hope it helps

http://imageupload.org/?di=8129872094810
  • #22,500
  • Feb 28, 2011 1:13am Feb 28, 2011 1:13am
All I see is hidden bullish divergence on the RSI and a quadruple bottom on the four hour chart. Stoch oversold. I am personally LONG @ 81.64 with a very tight stop at 81.50. Looking to TP at 81.90 area. We shall see as she slowly bounces 81.61 to 81.75...... Good luck.
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