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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #481
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:43am Feb 21, 2011 7:43am
Quoting mima
Same time frame?
P.S. yes, I have it now same number at POC.....well at that tome was at VAL and it is still developing so who knows what will be by the end of the day...
daily poc, and initial balance just first hour of london
  • #482
  • Feb 21, 2011 3:33pm Feb 21, 2011 3:33pm
my preference would be down to 1.3608....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_0221.jpg Size: 101 KB
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #483
  • Feb 21, 2011 5:19pm Feb 21, 2011 5:19pm
Quoting Sdvsa
No comment,
except maybe there is quite different scalability on different TFs, shifitng POCs to different levels; which is not problem if we stick to one TF with our analysis.
Nice gotta love those standard deviations of the volume weighted average price
  • #484
  • Feb 21, 2011 5:22pm Feb 21, 2011 5:22pm
Quoting alexm
I mean now we read the market with much better perspective, especially those potential U turn area like IBH or IBL, POC VAH & VAL etc.
Oh I see!

Yes as if VSA weren't enough we are given these magnificent levels!
  • #485
  • Feb 21, 2011 5:32pm Feb 21, 2011 5:32pm
This is /6e 30m with volume profiles. The last time we were up here we saw enough supply to change the intermediate trend, the previous profile has a nice selling tail.

Strange thing is, today's value area is completely contained by the high and VAH of the previous day. Check out the volume and see how low it is compared to previous days. It kindof looks like a no demand profile if you know what I mean.

And I believe that the profile type is nontrend.

"A nontrend day is usally followed by a change in trend" -- Market Profile Basics Page 6, Figure 8
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  • #486
  • Feb 21, 2011 5:41pm Feb 21, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting frankkn
Oh I see!

Yes as if VSA weren't enough we are given these magnificent levels!
Here is an example from today (PVAH bounce w. trend), too bad I had to work. I'll be around tomorrow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #487
  • Feb 21, 2011 6:05pm Feb 21, 2011 6:05pm
Quoting frankkn
This is /6e 30m with volume profiles. The last time we were up here we saw enough supply to change the intermediate trend, the previous profile has a nice selling tail.

Strange thing is, today's value area is completely contained by the high and VAH of the previous day. Check out the volume and see how low it is compared to previous days....
Frank,

I'm anticipating price will come down to test the friday Virgin POC and VAL before advertising for higher price.
  • #488
  • Feb 21, 2011 6:36pm Feb 21, 2011 6:36pm
It's been a while since there's been any music in here. Tokyo's showing us some crazy stuff.

This is a local artist from Dayton

Inserted Video
  • #489
  • Feb 21, 2011 6:36pm Feb 21, 2011 6:36pm
Quoting alexm
Frank,

I'm anticipating price will come down to test the friday Virgin POC and VAL before advertising for higher price.
Not much further now
  • #490
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:16pm Feb 21, 2011 7:16pm
Long at Friday's POC just looking for a small bounce
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  • #491
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:18pm Feb 21, 2011 7:18pm
Quoting frankkn
Long at Friday's POC just looking for a small bounce
I was quickly stopped about the same time I posted lol

Edit: Here was my entry, posted in the VSA thread
  • #492
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:01pm Feb 21, 2011 8:01pm
Quoting frankkn
I was quickly stopped about the same time I posted lol

Edit: Here was my entry, posted in the VSA thread
I am long at around the same level, but am more generous with my stop. Price has bounced at 1.3580 which is last week's VAH, and has been decreasing on decreasing volume since 1.3630ish (on the M15), it smells like a shakeout/test to me.

The tokyo IB is extremely wide at 57 pips so price should not go much further down from here IMO.
Attached Image
Change is the only constant
  • #493
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:14pm Feb 21, 2011 8:14pm
Quoting mima
my preference would be down to 1.3608....
Target hit
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #494
  • Feb 21, 2011 8:38pm Feb 21, 2011 8:38pm
Quoting mima
my preference would be down to 1.3608....
your specific reason/s?

thanks!
  • #495
  • Feb 21, 2011 9:00pm Feb 21, 2011 9:00pm
Quoting supremeChaos
your specific reason/s?

thanks!
At the time price was balanced and has to move somewhere...below is previous day POC at 1.3608...on H4 is ND at resistance...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #496
  • Feb 21, 2011 9:14pm Feb 21, 2011 9:14pm
This is my M6EH1 E-micro EUR/USD chart, Price broke friday VAH and virgin POC, on 30 min chart after it broke, we have low volume up thrust 3 bar back show weakness, I will hold on longer with stop loss above the pin bar top and aiming for friday VAL at 1.3549

But the significant is monday balance profile play a very important clue to all day trader, right after NY close, 2 30 min bar later price drop from 1.3681 all the way down without taking a breath.

So a narrow spread, fat and "balance" profile show good probability of trend change. (temporarily) My bias is eur/usd still in up trend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #497
  • Feb 22, 2011 1:38am Feb 22, 2011 1:38am
Quoting alexm
This is my M6EH1 E-micro EUR/USD chart, Price broke friday VAH and virgin POC, on 30 min chart after it broke, we have low volume up thrust 3 bar back show weakness, I will hold on longer with stop loss above the pin bar top and aiming for friday VAL at 1.3549

But the significant is monday balance profile play a very important clue to all day trader, right after NY close, 2 30 min bar later price drop from 1.3681 all the way down without taking a breath.

So a narrow spread, fat and "balance" profile show good probability of trend change....
Target 1.3548 hit.

Now the devil inside my head said buy it now. It is a shake out.

But I decided to walk away. And wait for next opportunity and see how today profile complete itself.
  • #498
  • Feb 22, 2011 3:10am Feb 22, 2011 3:10am
Quoting alexm
Target 1.3548 hit...
Good.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #499
  • Feb 22, 2011 6:38am Feb 22, 2011 6:38am
Quoting alexm
Target 1.3548 hit.

Now the devil inside my head said buy it now. It is a shake out.

But I decided to walk away. And wait for next opportunity and see how today profile complete itself.
Very nice!

My timing on the long was terrible, but patience paid off as I held it as price dropped to last week's POC. That is the advantage of using low risk factor, my account can tolerate the drawdown. H4 and daily look like a very nice shakeout, but i closed my long at 3675 (monday's POC) for +60 pips as today's VA is lower than Monday's so not clear to me the short term direction unless price can hold above Monday's VAH around 3690. But i won't be in front of my charts all day so better to be safe.
Change is the only constant
  • #500
  • Edited 7:24am Feb 22, 2011 7:10am | Edited 7:24am
I see gu building something on M15,

On H1, currently trying to enter the current week VA, after doing a fakey/shakey break on last week VAH and got rejection from Week 2011.01.30 POC...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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...
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