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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #461
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:25am Feb 19, 2011 8:25am
all indicators that i have are volume based.

Quoting bandung
Hi Scrat,

the profile on your chart... is it volume based or time based?

thanks
bandung.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #462
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:59am Feb 19, 2011 8:59am
morning!

Here's a great example of trading the 80% rule. GU H1, we can see that price opened in Asia above value, so we'd expect a test of value to occur. If value is accepted, then we would expect price to follow through to value low of hte previous day. In this case however, value was rejected in Asia. This is a very bullish signal as can be seen by the follow through in creating a higher value area on Friday, plus price closed at VAH signaling the strength is holding. Similar to EU, i would expect a drop to Friday's POC before a continuation up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU H1 2011-02-19 at 9.48.59 AM.png Size: 91 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #463
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:25am Feb 19, 2011 9:25am
Here are the EU levels i'm watching based on the weekly profiles (1st chart - H4).

Not only did EU break out of the current week's value area, but it also broke the previous weeks VAH at 1.3660 - which happens to be the POC for the week of Jan 23. The bigger picture tells us EU is heading for 1.3800 area, and you can see the VAH on the chart there. BUT we now have a naked weekly POC at 1.3520 that will need to be tested at some point. Personally i don't think we test it right away, but time will tell.

Also note 1.3660 coincides with Friday's VAH (2nd chart - 30M), which makes a more realistic target for a long entry for the ride up to 1.3800.

A scenario to think about IF EU is too really break out higher....EU should move up to 1.3800 area, then come back to test the naked POC at 1.3520. Rejection of 3800 would fuel the bears...and with the herd selling at those levels, someone has to buy So if the SM is buying at those levels it stands to reason price will move up further.

Just a hypothesis so remember to trade what you see, not what you think...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU H4 2011-02-19 at 10.02.29 AM.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU M30 2011-02-19 at 10.11.56 AM.png Size: 69 KB
Change is the only constant
  • #464
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:52am Feb 19, 2011 9:52am
I have been reading this thread with great interest - all my MP courses have been focusing on Dax futures.

I see bandung`s great charts and your`s seem very workable. May I ask you which MP indicator you used for those 2 charts, and what do you use intraday ( I already have the Better Volume ) ?

I always thought MT4 is not precise enough for MP/AMT, but I would like to see next week if I can contribute.

( I see the question about indies coming up several times, - maybe we could post a summary of pros & cons on page 1 ).

Thank you - you are providing excellent levels to watch.




______________
michael
Be like water.
  • #465
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:05am Feb 19, 2011 10:05am
Quoting msmarple
I see bandung`s great charts and your`s seem very workable. May I ask you which MP indicator you used for those 2 charts, and what do you use intraday ( I already have the Better Volume ) ?



______________
michael
Hi Michael,

I use bandung's profile indy from here (set to D for charts <60min, and W for 4hr charts): http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4403909

and my initial balance indy for charts H1 and smaller: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=4391806

The profile indy is time based and not volume based, so not always as accurate as the market statistics indy, but generally very close so good enough for me.

Hope that helps and looking forward to reading your posts!
Change is the only constant
  • #466
  • Feb 19, 2011 7:12pm Feb 19, 2011 7:12pm
weekly eu mp on h1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-w.jpg Size: 96 KB
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #467
  • Feb 20, 2011 12:51am Feb 20, 2011 12:51am
Quoting Scrat
all indicators that i have are volume based.
Thanks Scrat,

I'm develoving the similar profile like yours.., swing MP
I use volume value-area calculation on Mind Over Markets (page 331) for MP calculation

I notice high volume node on my profile not too much different with yours.

I hope you can share your swing MP indicator.
if not than it ok. I appreciated it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1298073557
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swing-volume-mp.png Size: 57 KB
...
  • #468
  • Feb 20, 2011 1:21am Feb 20, 2011 1:21am
Quoting tgwhbb
Here are the EU levels i'm watching based on the weekly profiles (1st chart - H4).

Not only did EU break out of the current week's value area, but it also broke the previous weeks VAH at 1.3660 - which happens to be the POC for the week of Jan 23....
excellent tgwhbb... great analysis, I like the way you see the MP Lines(poc, vah, val, etc..), it must be come from knowledge and experience.

thank you v much.
...
  • #469
  • Feb 20, 2011 3:38am Feb 20, 2011 3:38am
here it is, you only need to input a start date.
the lines on the chart are pvp and vwap; i don't really care about vwap anymore, it can be turned off from the colors.

Quoting bandung
Thanks Scrat,

I'm develoving the similar profile like yours.., swing MP
I use volume value-area calculation on Mind Over Markets (page 331) for MP calculation

I notice high volume node on my profile not too much different with yours.

I hope you can share your swing MP indicator.
if not than it ok. I appreciated it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Market_Statistics_v1.mq4   8 KB | 985 downloads
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #470
  • Feb 20, 2011 5:07am Feb 20, 2011 5:07am
Quoting frankkn
What do you mean?
I mean now we read the market with much better perspective, especially those potential U turn area like IBH or IBL, POC VAH & VAL etc.
  • #471
  • Feb 20, 2011 6:35am Feb 20, 2011 6:35am
Quoting bandung
excellent tgwhbb... great analysis, I like the way you see the MP Lines(poc, vah, val, etc..), it must be come from knowledge and experience.

thank you v much.
Thanks bandung!

But I'm still learning here too, so experIence is still limited. I do however feel much more confident now with market structure.
Change is the only constant
  • #472
  • Feb 20, 2011 2:59pm Feb 20, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
EURUSD 1.3716
There is a Virgin POCv at 1.3718. So it looks like we are going to "soft" open out of balance in unfair high territory.

If you get a clear sell signal then that would be great. You could play both the gap fill and the move back down into the developing value area. The Developing POCv is at 1.3631 and the Developing POCt is at 1.3628.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #473
  • Feb 20, 2011 3:43pm Feb 20, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting HiddenGap
There is a Virgin POCv at 1.3718. So it looks like we are going to "soft" open out of balance in unfair high territory.

If you get a clear sell signal then that would be great. You could play both the gap fill and the move back down into the developing value area. The Developing POCv is at 1.3631 and the Developing POCt is at 1.3628.
On my chart I have extreme at 1.3713 ( from last week) and third deviation at 1.3703...On extreme price either go trough or is rejected...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #474
  • Feb 20, 2011 4:06pm Feb 20, 2011 4:06pm
Quoting mima
On my chart I have extreme at 1.3713 ( from last week) and third deviation at 1.3703...On extreme price either go trough or is rejected...
LOL there is more than one way to skin a cat.

I have a VPOCv at 1.3718. Friday took out a VPOCv at 1.3703

When you say third deviation are you using VWAP and deviation bands?
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #475
  • Feb 20, 2011 4:29pm Feb 20, 2011 4:29pm
Quoting HiddenGap
LOL there is more than one way to skin a cat.

I have a VPOCv at 1.3718. Friday took out a VPOCv at 1.3703

When you say third deviation are you using VWAP and deviation bands?
What is virgin POC?
The first standard deviation correlates to the value area. The third standard deviation correlates to a price excess...then there is extreme...
What do you know about "minus development"?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #476
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:05pm Feb 20, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting Scrat
here it is, you only need to input a start date.
the lines on the chart are pvp and vwap; i don't really care about vwap anymore, it can be turned off from the colors.
Thanks v much, Scrat.
...
  • #477
  • Feb 21, 2011 5:22am Feb 21, 2011 5:22am
No comment,
except maybe there is quite different scalability on different TFs, shifitng POCs to different levels; which is not problem if we stick to one TF with our analysis.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2011-02-21_EU_H4_1000pipPOC.png Size: 55 KB
  • #478
  • Feb 21, 2011 6:05am Feb 21, 2011 6:05am
Below 1.3674(VAL) maybe short...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_0221_1.jpg Size: 76 KB
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #479
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:03am Feb 21, 2011 7:03am
Quoting mima
Below 1.3674(VAL) maybe short...
its right on todays poc plus ibl on my chart..
  • #480
  • Feb 21, 2011 7:32am Feb 21, 2011 7:32am
Quoting NaughtyPip
its right on todays poc plus ibl on my chart..
Same time frame?
P.S. yes, I have it now same number at POC.....well at that tome was at VAL and it is still developing so who knows what will be by the end of the day...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
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