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  • #391,001
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:31am Feb 20, 2011 8:31am
Here is my new 4h count
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  • #391,002
  • Edited 8:49am Feb 20, 2011 8:33am | Edited 8:49am
the downmove and wave C is approaching the 61.8 fibo retracement.

at what price level euro would be with 61.8?.-i got 3730

btw Markus i like reading your blog and the way you started to implement ratio of people going long/short %,and your statement about 11% bulls left is somewhat accurate if even compared to other broker stats,Now im not saying its worth much but implementing with other analysis it might give some different views
  • #391,003
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:41am Feb 20, 2011 8:41am
Quoting Raza
Here is an example of FIBS relation to take the precise entry.. see the circled area.

Dont worry about the labelling so much .. as there can be many different ones.. ALL depends on price violations.


Hi Raza,

since your fibs do not match the high or low (or the high and low) of the measured cycle, I think that your fib system looks back a certain period.

If so, we are in the same boat, since my system looks back a certain period to find the high/low of this period

Interesting stuff......
  • #391,004
  • Edited 9:26am Feb 20, 2011 8:54am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting infinitus
Here is my new 4h count
Markus,

As a matter of fact, I myself considered this count too. But for two reasons I do not incline towards it: 1/ wave 3 looks like a 3-wave structure - when my posts become visible you will see my 4h chart; 2/If wave 2 is a flat - then wave 4 is flat again as it does not look like either a complex or a zig-zag? Surely, the guideline of alternation allows for a violation - but I prefer to stick to it more often than not...
I hope we have a really productive EW conversation here as the price pattern is quite messy.
  • #391,005
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:59am Feb 20, 2011 8:59am
Quoting infinitus
Hello,


you are right on the indis. I saw that too.

But I will never relay on head and shoulder patterns. It is a coin toss. And without seeing the real volume on right and left shoulder they are totally worthless. My 2ct.


Best to you,

Markus
Gl with your shorts next week also.
  • #391,006
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:11am Feb 20, 2011 9:11am
Quoting pinkiaiii
the downmove and wave C is approaching the 61.8 fibo retracement.

at what price level euro would be with 61.8?.-i got 3730

btw Markus i like reading your blog and the way you started to implement ratio of people going long/short %,and your statement about 11% bulls left is somewhat accurate if even compared to other broker stats,Now im not saying its worth much but implementing with other analysis it might give some different views
Hi Pinkiaiii,

thank you very much for mentioning my blog :-)

Yes, it was time to show more, that Elliott Wave is not all about counting the waves but also about (firstly) market sentiment (psychology).

With the numbers I repeatedly show (eg. 11% bulls) it is important to know, that these numbers are ONLY the numbers for the retails.

Why only the retails I here questions arise. Simply: because the ordinary retails are normally the people who got it most of the time wrong or are the late-comers to the party (sadly). They may be a better sentiment gauge than the large specs.

If you have any good source of further sentiment data I will gladly incorporate it in my blog and analysis. So let me know.

I wish you a nice Sunday from rainy/snowy/cold Frankfurt,


Markus
  • #391,007
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:17am Feb 20, 2011 9:17am
Quoting pkimnyc
Gl with your shorts next week also.
Thanks,

I will close them as I see fit, since I play mainly the ups and downs via scalping (most of the time C-wave scalping). Here and there I try to establish longer positions.

But as I stated and showed in my counts:

this wave up is not over, but will first drop to at least 3672.

Wish you too luck, short and long :-)
  • #391,008
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:26am Feb 20, 2011 9:26am
h4
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  • #391,009
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:28am Feb 20, 2011 9:28am
Here's what I got goin on...
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  • #391,010
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:29am Feb 20, 2011 9:29am
nice.. more after the fact entries in the green.
im gonna join the long train, maybe? i need a close above 3707 for one, 3712 for another and 3733.... usdx has to be below Fridays low 77.53 or we retrace about 115 pips from Fridays > eu high. to about 3578 (. 3712 area is a good place for forced sex. all appears to go north atm.. on the Feb candle we upper level thus far rejected. how it ends is anyone's guess. but before we start counting our coins beware of 3704/3733.(closes not wicks).. we are in a rejection area started in 2008. we may play ping/pong to 3625 also. i got a high Friday at about 3715.. i target 3719.5. when so close to target we usually come back to it. so with the usual slip 3736.7. but 3733 is another 2008 fib that could cap it. as said all points north atm..
i personally did not have any Iranian ships on my charts prier to last week. Israel has changed the usual flight to safety more toward the swissy. boosting the euro along with commodities. I bid homage to the ones who had those ships on their charts (prier to last week). Im jealous i did not. I had a green light to long and ignored it (3549). but on the same token. i had one to short at 3712 also Friday. Also ignored, till we were at 3707.. when i realized what 3712 was.

looking for a candle at 3719.5/33 area.. i will short there with a green light. this is what i mean by prier to the event. as long as im here when it happens with all ducks lined up i will short. im not gonna say i did it 100 pips after the fact. win lose or draw. i will lock in 1% when able and manage the rest. if possible sl will be less then 10 pips maybe less.
GL... lets make some pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #391,011
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:38am Feb 20, 2011 9:38am
Quoting gatorinla
nice.. more after the fact entries in the green.
I'm gonna join the long train, maybe? i need a close above 3707 for one, 3712 for another and 3733.... usdx has to be below Fridays low 77.53 or we retrace about 115 pips from Fridays > eu high. to about 3578 (. 3712 area is a good place for forced sex. all appears to go north atm.. on the Feb candle we upper level thus far rejected. how it ends is anyone's guess. but before we start counting our coins beware of 3704/3733.(closes not wicks).. we are in a rejection area started in 2008. we may play...
Its nice to see what your thinking out loud it helps to understand how you set up and how you protect yourself if it goes the other direction. this is why you pip count is growing.
  • #391,012
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:42am Feb 20, 2011 9:42am
Nearby fib zone resistance and 5th wave target zone:
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  • #391,013
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:51am Feb 20, 2011 9:51am
Quoting gatorinla
nice.. more after the fact entries in the green.
in case this post was directed to me, here is the trading plan that was mentioned early this month.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=380357

did not trade the down side as i was busy questioning the rejection candle at 1.37 area on 1hr chart, it was too late for me to get in by the time the down move started, and cable long trade ended up with loss with -70 pips.

between my job and being a noob at scalping unlike you guys, being able to open trades and ffing is difficult for me.

anyway, this has been fun ffing. gl everyone.
  • #391,014
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:52am Feb 20, 2011 9:52am
Quoting freelancer
Or maybe find a pattern that occurs several times on a time scale? Especially the one occurring at the bottom of moves
Hi Freelancer,

sorry, can not understand your count:

shows an 5 wave impulse down, than wave x up and y down.

So I would think that you state, that the 5 down is the w wave.

But then: WXY moves are everytime and only combination of zigzags. w can not be an impulse
  • #391,015
  • Feb 20, 2011 9:58am Feb 20, 2011 9:58am
H4
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  • #391,016
  • Feb 20, 2011 10:08am Feb 20, 2011 10:08am
Quoting pkimnyc
in case this post was directed to me, here is the trading plan that was mentioned early this month.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=380357

did not trade the down side as i was busy questioning the rejection candle at 1.37 area on 1hr chart, it was too late for me to get in by the time the down move started, and cable long trade ended up with loss with -70 pips.

between my job and being a noob at scalping unlike you guys, being able to open trades and ffing is difficult for me.

anyway, this has been fun...
it wasnt. well it wasn't intended that way. but its pointing to all of us including myself. i was once told i should post my trades. well i do some of them when able. sometimes when scalping i just cant. because i want the best entry. by the time i would be able to post it has already moved. anyway whats good for the goose is good for the gander. so the ones who wanted me to post should do the same. but ahead of the fact. and after the 300 pip draw down don't come fill the pages with "i walked on water" garbage.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #391,017
  • Feb 20, 2011 10:11am Feb 20, 2011 10:11am
Quoting gatorinla
nice.. more after the fact entries in the green.
im gonna join the long train, maybe? i need a close above 3707 for one, 3712 for another and 3733.... usdx has to...


Hi Gator,

very good analysis. Thank you for providing it.

My take on the 3733 out of MM analysis on hourly:

If we breach 3733 by at least 2 baby octaves (3741), chances are very high that it will go to around max 3795.

If we do not penetrate 3741 chances are extreme high that we will see 355x in short time.


Best to you and as always a lot of green pips,


Markus
  • #391,018
  • Feb 20, 2011 10:14am Feb 20, 2011 10:14am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Gator,

very good analysis. Thank you for providing it.

My take on the 3733 out of MM analysis on hourly:

If we breach 3733 by at least 2 baby octaves (3741), chances are very high that it will go to around max 3795.

If we do not penetrate 3741 chances are extreme high that we will see 355x in short time.


Best to you and as always a lot of green pips,


Markus
good
  • #391,019
  • Feb 20, 2011 10:18am Feb 20, 2011 10:18am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Gator,

very good analysis. Thank you for providing it.

My take on the 3733 out of MM analysis on hourly:

If we breach 3733 by at least 2 baby octaves (3741), chances are very high that it will go to around max 3795.

If we do not penetrate 3741 chances are extreme high that we will see 355x in short time.


Best to you and as always a lot of green pips,


Markus
im just taking whats is given..no big plans w/o a big move. if so ill hold on as long as im able.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #391,020
  • Feb 20, 2011 10:21am Feb 20, 2011 10:21am
Quoting buonvangvn
H4

Here is my view of the 4hr.
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