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  • #390,981
  • Feb 20, 2011 4:42am Feb 20, 2011 4:42am
Some GPB/USD stuff. Read the chart:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hcDhqVRDBb...d+analysis.png
  • #390,982
  • Feb 20, 2011 4:47am Feb 20, 2011 4:47am
Quoting infinitus

Waves are fractal and we have to find the same (or similar) moves in the small TF's and the larger ones.
Or maybe find a pattern that occurs several times on a time scale? Especially the one occurring at the bottom of moves
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #390,983
  • Feb 20, 2011 4:47am Feb 20, 2011 4:47am
hey Piters,
u dont have your PM on..
what's your basis for 1.3720? (your earlier post/s)

thanks Sir!
  • #390,984
  • Feb 20, 2011 5:12am Feb 20, 2011 5:12am
Quoting freelancer
[/color]

Hi Infinitus
I guess this is the case. If we look into the wave structure on the hourly we are approaching the end of wave C up /or have touched it already/. It makes sense in the context of fib retracements as wave B ends at the 123.6 /very common for irregular flats/ fibo level of the downmove and wave C is approaching the 61.8 fibo retracement.
hi freelancer... question

to the far left of your chart you have labelled waves going up 3, 4, 5... then you start with a 5 wave count to the downside which is also labelled (1)... does this mean the end of 3,4,5 to the left of the chart is the end of the C wave on your chart??? sorry i am a little confused so taking in ideas from all areas...

or should (1) be labelled at wave A corrective?

many thanks
  • #390,985
  • Edited 6:04am Feb 20, 2011 5:25am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting jaylovin
hi freelancer... question

to the far left of your chart you have labelled waves going up 3, 4, 5... then you start with a 5 wave count to the downside which is also labelled (1)... does this mean the end of 3,4,5 to the left of the chart is the end of the C wave on your chart??? sorry i am a little confused so taking in ideas from all areas...

or should (1) be labelled at wave A corrective?

many thanks
That is exactly what it is - these are the internal waves of a C wave of a flat - at least that is what I think. As for the wave A - corrective - it is too early to tell. Sometimes it is hard to label a wave of a higher degree - therefore I keep it simple to a maximum of 2-3 wave degrees waiting for the pattern to develop itself and suggest a higher degree label.
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  • #390,986
  • Feb 20, 2011 5:27am Feb 20, 2011 5:27am
Quoting Atlast
I don't know where you got that all from, but very good.
You know 99% of traders here don't use volume. They don't want to understand the market, they want to understand how the market will move next,2 different tings. Volume information in forex is there if you look for it, tick volume is an excellent proxy, and so is COT data for futures contracts a good proxy of the balance.
happy trading.
a happy trader is a trader who does not fight the market but presses and defends his position or not...
Wise words there Atlast, the article is from Gary Norden. Ill PM the mag to you, interesig stuff..
  • #390,987
  • Feb 20, 2011 5:55am Feb 20, 2011 5:55am
Have attached 2 weekly & 1 daily chart that highlights Major Trend Lines as well as Current Fib levels that are still valid so there are a few good solid targets to the upside as well as downside.

For now, Euro is pushing back up, but could simply be setting itself up for a better place from which to sell off and remember things sell off 3 times faster than they go up.

Alex
"To believe you are going to be 100% correct, simply means you are going to end up being 100% incorrect"
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #390,988
  • Feb 20, 2011 6:00am Feb 20, 2011 6:00am
Quoting Larseg
Volume is one of the most popular indicators used by traders, particularly technical traders. It has become accepted wisdom that high volume needs to accompany any move in a contract if that move is to be believed. For this reason, volume filters are usually added to trading systems in both back testing and real-time trading.
As with most aspects of technical analysis, we are told that we can apply the volume rules to any contract, so volume filters and analysis are
used on markets as diverse as shares and futures. The two main stories told to justify...
You made a good argument in your previous post. However, most of it doesn't apply or is irrelevant for the majority of retail and in FF. One thing is using volume (especially in stocks and in futures to a lesser extend) for arb, algo HFT, hedging or long term analysis and another is pretending that volume information than come from your bucket shop broker (most of the time around FF) using a 1 minute (or whatever small timeframe) chart in NZD/JPY and aiming for a 10 pip move is of any use.

Volume analysis in forex for most intraday charts and manual trading aiming for a few pips is 100% irrelevant in my opinion. It's not because of volume "per se" but for the lack of it in small timeframes and in forex and especially because most of vol traders around here (with very few exceptions) use it as standard canned indicator with "nice" theoretical explanation of demand absorbing supply, buy here, sell there, etc ,etc, etc. (...just for fun every time u read a vol signal in FF for traders who use it like this... just open a slow stochastic (5,3,3 or whatever fast enough) and compare with those "volume" signals and ...there are 100% the same)

In simple words, when I read manual traders in FF aiming only for 10/20 pips move using sub 15 min chart because volume this and that, I automatically discard it as completely irrelevant in my case. Obviously a serious trader pointing to a break out on a stock/future,etc in a daily/weekly chart aiming for a +500 tick move with a sound FA and TA explanation including volume analysis I will definitively read that in detail....

In any case, IMO as long as you don't use volume as a canned indicator I think is a valid option if you know how to filter and exploit it.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #390,989
  • Feb 20, 2011 6:05am Feb 20, 2011 6:05am
honestly, way too much on a sales mission.

Quoting walb99
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Macro-...74691629226392

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yHTan...eature=related
  • #390,990
  • Feb 20, 2011 6:07am Feb 20, 2011 6:07am
Quoting sisse
You made a good argument in your previous post. However, most of it doesn't apply or is irrelevant for the majority of retail and in FF. One thing is using volume (especially in stocks and in futures to a lesser extend) for arb, algo HFT, hedging or long term analysis and another is pretending that volume information than come from your bucket shop broker (most of the time around FF) using a 1 minute (or whatever small timeframe) chart in NZD/JPY and aiming for a 10 pip move is of any use.

Volume analysis in forex for most intraday charts and...

Hi Sisse, see PM
  • #390,991
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:40am Feb 20, 2011 7:40am
Quoting Patience
Sorry, but I'm already taken
over and over? *L*
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #390,992
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:45am Feb 20, 2011 7:45am
Quoting Vilgax
Hello,

# 1 time frame = 15 minutes
# 2 time frame = 1 hour
# 3 time frame = 4 hour

P value is 200 across all time frame.

I have attached before and after charts to show you how beautifully Murrey worked yesterday.

I trade between the support - pivot - resistance lines and have highlighted them on my 15 min and 1 hour charts so that those levels stand out. Yesterday from Asia to Lon it went like clock work on the 15 mins from 1.3611 down to 1.3550. Then it sat there for a bit and I could see it was unable to break the 1.3550...
Hello Vilgax,

thank you very much for your in depth answer. Liked to read it.

My experience with MM is like yours. It makes it a LOT easier to find high prob. trades. Especially when you combine it with fibs, supply/demand analysis and a little bit of EW knowledge.

Money management is the most important part of trading. That is for sure. And Murry self explains over and over where and how to protect your account.

Regarding the p-value:

Murrey did his trading only on daily TF. And he advised to set the p-Value (trading frame) to multiples of 16. Namely he advices to check 16, 32, 64.
One can do it with 128, 256 or even 512 (and you will often times achieve good results with it, too - my experience), but Murrey says all what is beyond 64 is "unpredictable".

If you mainly trade the 15min, then set up one screen with three charts.
Each of this three then has another p-value, 16, 32, 64.

You choose then that chart, where the last swing fits best into one octave.

Only a advice, not meant to change your trading style. If you are overall profitable, do not change it cause (likely) you are adapted to it :-)

On each of this charts I place a fibo indicator, which draws automatically fibo lines. On the p=16 the fibo looks back 16 periods, on p=32 it loks back 32 and on P=64 it looks back 64 periods.

Keep in mind: Murrey thinks, that MMTL (Murrey Math Trading Lines) are more predictable than fibs.

Under this post you can see a snapshot of my MM screen.

When market is moving fast as Friday afternoon (GMT) I switch to 5min TF, on slow days I trade on the 15min TF.


Best to you,

Markus
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  • #390,993
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:48am Feb 20, 2011 7:48am
Quoting Vilgax
Infinitus posted the indi on 7 Oct 2010 on FF. You can find it on page # 20194 post # 302902
Hi,

take care to set the p-value to 16, 32 or 64


Best to you,

Markus
  • #390,994
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:49am Feb 20, 2011 7:49am
Quoting pinkiaiii
Some people here forget that indicators can point to overbought or sold for weeks.And since the setup was to kill bears,same story which happened few weeks before Christmas,when most where conned into short positions,I suggest don't role out possibility for 1.38 to come.
  • #390,995
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:52am Feb 20, 2011 7:52am
Quoting FibbinArchie
already at the first level...

current quote: 70 bid, 76 offer...
Hi dude,

hope you have a nice weekend.


It was obvious that price would go back: MM pointed to it as well as EW


Catch ya later,

Markus
  • #390,996
  • Feb 20, 2011 7:55am Feb 20, 2011 7:55am
Quoting pkimnyc
hi,
here is something you might want to consider...

1. stoch (daily), we still have plenty more room to the upside, imho.
2. failed h&s. most cases that i have seen in failed h&s patterns resulted new highs (if inverted, new lows) and then some.

those are the primary reasons why (personally of course) i'm not seeing raza's impulse down move as a high probability, but hey that's just my point of view.
sorry raza. no hard feelings right?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=390874

here's daily...


Hello,


you are right on the indis. I saw that too.

But I will never relay on head and shoulder patterns. It is a coin toss. And without seeing the real volume on right and left shoulder they are totally worthless. My 2ct.


Best to you,

Markus
  • #390,997
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:05am Feb 20, 2011 8:05am
Quoting freelancer
[/color]

Hi Infinitus
I guess this is the case. If we look into the wave structure on the hourly we are approaching the end of wave C up /or have touched it already/. It makes sense in the context of fib retracements as wave B ends at the 123.6 /very common for irregular flats/ fibo level of the downmove and wave C is approaching the 61.8 fibo retracement.
Hi Freelancer,

welcome here at FF EURUSD board.

Very good chart/count and reasoning with your first post :-)

Great to see another one here with good EW knowledge. :-))

My list with Elliotticans here grows from day to day :-)))


Keep up your good work and would like to see your intermediate or long time counts (if you have time for it).


Best to you,

Markus
  • #390,998
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:12am Feb 20, 2011 8:12am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Freelancer,

welcome here at FF EURUSD board.

Very good chart/count and reasoning with your first post :-)

Great to see another one here with good EW knowledge. :-))

My list with Elliotticans here grows from day to day :-)))


Keep up your good work and would like to see your intermediate or long time counts (if you have time for it).


Best to you,

Markus
Markus,

Thank you for the good words.
As far as the intermediate to long term chart is concerned - well a picture speaks a thousand words
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #390,999
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:17am Feb 20, 2011 8:17am
Quoting freelancer
[/color]

Hi Infinitus
I guess this is the case. If we look into the wave structure on the hourly we are approaching the end of wave C up /or have touched it already/. It makes sense in the context of fib retracements as wave B ends at the 123.6 /very common for irregular flats/ fibo level of the downmove and wave C is approaching the 61.8 fibo retracement.
You've got good EW skills. Always wanted to be an Elliot wave analyst when I first started trading but I had no success with it for several years (close to 5 actually) or possibly no enough patience at all. So I settled for a less complicated method of trading or speculating the market.

I admire you Guys.

ecn.
Perfect Trading Core completed on 13/10/2012 : 2002-2012 |10yrs
  • #391,000
  • Feb 20, 2011 8:20am Feb 20, 2011 8:20am
Quoting iflyjetzzz
That's a whole lotta political instability; I don't think all of it's being priced in. Bahrain was a surprise to me. It'd be one thing if this were limited to areas of the world that don't have the strategic importance of the Middle East. The impact of the two gulf wars on oil prices and the world economy are my reference points.

On the flight thing, I'm still laid off from United. Maybe we can talk in a couple of years...
Yeah...i remember your post on the lay off, going to dig it out.Very interesting perspective as i recall.
Nice reply, thanks.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
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