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  • #390,881
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:06am Feb 19, 2011 10:06am
Quoting jaylovin
i've found bull flags don't really always work... a break out one direction is safe to tp to the nearest resistance imo but pole count for projection price isn't always achieved.. i guess it does help if the breakout is in the direction of the trend... but have been burnt a few times trying this method out...cheers


That is so true, Jaylovin,

it depends on the situation:

a) we are in an impulse up and having a 4th wave triangle -> bull flag

b) we are in a correction up (5-3-5 move or ABC), here we are in the B wave, which can be a triangle too -> bull flag (in a overall bear market)


c) we have finished the upmove and are now in a new trend down. We have seen wave 1 down, the a complex wave 2 which retraces high -> surprise, surprise -> will drop hard
  • #390,882
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:07am Feb 19, 2011 10:07am
Quoting pkimnyc
i rather prefer following one rule.
too many rules mixed up together is no good for me, as anything can be possible. the reason i stick to ew is to go through the elimination process.
if anything can be possible then what's the point of throwing ew in my tool box?
besides, ew is for general direction. doesn't really help in entry picking in my case, but that's just me. if it works for you then it's good.

  • #390,883
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:13am Feb 19, 2011 10:13am
Quoting jaylovin
yes i did ask for ripping

i am merely looking at other views... I haven't changed my bearish view but as you say its important to look at other views here...

but its also important to see where the weekly and daily candles left for us... plain and simply i see bullish.... what do you see?

USD 1h chart downwards could work as a 5 wave... its not 100% clean but i don't always expect them to be... maybe impulsive is the wrong word... maybe 5 waves within a corrective down move from the USDx - i just noticed this...

there are...


Weekly I see down. Actual candle is not closed yet and there is enough time left

Daily mixed bag, more bull.

But internals of this candles (lower TF's) do not support that.

Can move higher, but not much room left, I think....
  • #390,884
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:15am Feb 19, 2011 10:15am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Everything from H4 and lower is reading as over-bought. Key areas to watch for on any retrace (in my opinion):

674, 650, 628, 609...

Major inflection area, switching longer term bias back to bearish will be break and hold below Friday's low @ 545...



Hi Fibbin,


spot on.


Have a nice weekend.

Markus
  • #390,885
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:20am Feb 19, 2011 10:20am
Quoting jaylovin
hi fontu...

markus is right... these waves right now aren't impulsive.... its in balan's book and i'm pretty sure pretcher says it also.... impulsive waves are easy to count... the drop from 1.51 to 1.18 is clearly impulsive...

the rise from 1.18 to up 1.42 i can only make sense of as an AB=CD and it does perfectly so... = formed a bearish bat pattern as i posted a month or so back...

markus, what do you make of that move from 1.18 up to 1.42? an impulsive 5 wave??? or an ABC correction of the previous move from 1.51??

at...


Hi Jaylovin,

answer is: ABC correction:

see here:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3PzDmuLD1F...ish+eurusd.gif
  • #390,886
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:33am Feb 19, 2011 10:33am
H1...

Expecting price to revisit (gray area).... assuming it holds, I'll be a buyer. 3600...3615 is the preferred entry.... we'll see what London has to say.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 165 KB
  • #390,887
  • Edited 10:45am Feb 19, 2011 10:34am | Edited 10:45am
Quoting jaylovin
hi fontu...

markus is right... these waves right now aren't impulsive.... its in balan's book and i'm pretty sure pretcher says it also.... impulsive waves are easy to count... the drop from 1.51 to 1.18 is clearly impulsive...

the rise from 1.18 to up 1.42 i can only make sense of as an AB=CD and it does perfectly so... = formed a bearish bat pattern as i posted a month or so back...

markus, what do you make of that move from 1.18 up to 1.42? an impulsive 5 wave??? or an ABC correction of the previous move from 1.51??

at this stage nothing...
Thanks jaylovin for the input & reply . time will tell at last what going on & will play with smaller waves till have the views clearer .Till then holding the same views as before for the bear , short from top mostly short term & safe mode .

most disornanized movement in smaller tf actually not so in higher tf but still confusing . lets see .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #390,888
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:38am Feb 19, 2011 10:38am
my computer blocks the link deeming it unsafe so can't access the page..

Quoting infinitus
Hi Jaylovin,

answer is: ABC correction:

see here:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3PzDmuLD1F...ish+eurusd.gif
  • #390,889
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:41am Feb 19, 2011 10:41am
i've been going over charts and i coming up with strategies for the week.

opening tomorrow, key levels to watch for will be 1.3650= daily centra pivot point and sma 20 mid bollinger band, i believe price will retrace to this are before moving upwards.

the weekly bearish momentum was broken finding support at a key MONTHLY pivot point 1.34480 (if i would have stuck to my daily time frame strategy i would be a lot more better off) but i was experimenting with scalping at lower frames i forgot the BIGGER PICTURE.

1.37350 is a key level mid point monthly pivot, reistance from previous high, close to daily pivot point, and will determine whether price will keep walking up the bollinger bands.

if so im expecting tomorrow to close either at around 1.3750 or 1.38's

once this level is broken i will look to take my second entry. if it bounces down and breaks central daily pivot im out of my long position. looking to short if support is not found on central monthly pivot point, looks like bearish reversal

this will: break major support levels, cross down of sma's 50/200 walk down bollinger band,

breaching the central weekly pivot
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #390,890
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:41am Feb 19, 2011 10:41am
Quoting infinitus
Weekly I see down. Actual candle is not closed yet and there is enough time left

Daily mixed bag, more bull.

But internals of this candles (lower TF's) do not support that.

Can move higher, but not much room left, I think....
Forex more easily influenced by gossip,,
which eventually form a sentiment,,

yesterday, a bank executive in Europe intends to raise interest rates,,
maybe this will make the market sentiment to buy euros,,
only an analysis, and I'm always wrong, don't follow me,
  • #390,891
  • Feb 19, 2011 10:47am Feb 19, 2011 10:47am
  •  Vilgax
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Lack of money is root of most evil | 466 Posts
Quoting infinitus
Hi Vilgax,

like to hear that. Today I could have made more pips when I would had gone more with that what MM showed.

May I ask a few questions:

on what TF do you use MM mainly?

Which p-value is set in your indicator?


Thanks in advance and have a nice weekend

Hello,

# 1 time frame = 15 minutes
# 2 time frame = 1 hour
# 3 time frame = 4 hour

P value is 200 across all time frame.

I have attached before and after charts to show you how beautifully Murrey worked yesterday.

I trade between the support - pivot - resistance lines and have highlighted them on my 15 min and 1 hour charts so that those levels stand out. Yesterday from Asia to Lon it went like clock work on the 15 mins from 1.3611 down to 1.3550. Then it sat there for a bit and I could see it was unable to break the 1.3550 level. I watched and waited and when it got up to 1.3560 I went in for a long and set my TP at 1.3611 which got hit. Again it bounced around that level so again I waited and re-entered again at 1.3630 and set my TP to 1.3672 as the PA was as clear as day that it was going up....When it hit 1.3672 I was done for the day and am having a lovely weekend. Yes the market did go up all the way to 1.37+ but this is where I refuse to get greedy. I just take what I need and get out. In a nutshell for me // Murrey Math 15 Mins mainly plus 1 and 4 hours and I trade from resistance to pivot to support and vice versa while monitoring PA.

Just some words of encouragement for those who are peed off and feel like giving up on forex but don't really want to...I started in forex in 2001 when forex "courses" were first presented to the public here in South Africa. I quit my job, invested all my savings and even took a loan to fund my forex venture because I believed that I would make millions from forex. Well, 3 months later I lost all my savings and then some and stopped trading altogether. However, I refused to give up on my forex dream and after having to work my butt off to recover my losses I returned again in 2007. I did another forex course where I must say the guy actually knew his stuff. He taught me that 15 minutes is the best time frame as it can tell you the past and the future when you need it.

HOWEVER, everybody is different and what works for one person might not work for you and I strongly believe that it is every person's own responsibility to find out for themselves what works the best for them. This can only be achieved through endless hours of watching the market and learning how it moves as well as being very patient. I have done alot of screeen time trying to figure this forex shiz out and am still learning but it can be done if one really wants to. Also sound MONEY MANAGEMENT is key. It doesn't help to sit in a losing trade for hours or days when one can just close it and make money on the next trade.

I have gone from having 6 or more indis on my chart to looking at just 3 things which are my top 3: namely candlesticks (or PA as the PA forms the candles after all) mva's and Murrey Math + strict money management. I have tried everything from Ichi Moku to Bollinger etc. been there done that and got the t-shirts....All I can say is...don't give up, don't be greedy and you will make it. Lastly, read FF - there are some truly some great traders here who thank goodness post regularly...Cloggie, Infinitus, Mr Hatch, Sisse, T@rantula, Gatorinla, Magix, Egkid to name just a few....
It's all there, one must just want it enough....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ASIA to LON 18Feb[1].jpg Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: LON to NYC[1].jpg Size: 90 KB
The forex market has its own life and takes its own time.
  • #390,892
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:00am Feb 19, 2011 11:00am
Quoting jaylovin
my computer blocks the link deeming it unsafe so can't access the page..


LOL That is my blog at blogspot.

Seems that some people have difficulties with a java applet on my blog, maybe Dukascopy TV.

Have to evaluate that.

Here is the pic:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 02162011 daily afternoon main count bearish eurusd.jpg Size: 184 KB
  • #390,893
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:01am Feb 19, 2011 11:01am
Quoting Vilgax
Hello,

# 1 time frame = 15 minutes
# 2 time frame = 1 hour
# 3 time frame = 4 hour

P value is 200 across all time frame.

I have attached before and after charts to show you how beautifully Murrey worked yesterday.

I trade between the support - pivot - resistance lines and have highlighted them on my 15 min and 1 hour charts so that those levels stand out. Yesterday from Asia to Lon it went like clock work on the 15 mins from 1.3611 down to 1.3550. Then it sat there for a bit and I could see it was unable to break the 1.3550 level. I watched...

Could you post your MM indicator...? thx
  • #390,894
  • Edited 11:35am Feb 19, 2011 11:04am | Edited 11:35am
Quoting infinitus
Daily mixed bag, more bull.

But internals of this candles (lower TF's) do not support that.

Can move higher, but not much room left, I think....
hi,
here is something you might want to consider...

1. stoch (daily), we still have plenty more room to the upside, imho.
2. failed h&s. most cases that i have seen in failed h&s patterns resulted new highs (if inverted, new lows) and then some.

those are the primary reasons why (personally of course) i'm not seeing raza's impulse down move as a high probability, but hey that's just my point of view.
sorry raza. no hard feelings right?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=390874

here's daily and 4hr charts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_02_18_11.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_02_18_11_4hr.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #390,895
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:09am Feb 19, 2011 11:09am
Quoting Vilgax
Hello,

# 1 time frame = 15 minutes
# 2 time frame = 1 hour
# 3 time frame = 4 hour

P value is 200 across all time frame.

I have attached before and after charts to show you how beautifully Murrey worked yesterday.

I trade between the support - pivot - resistance lines and have highlighted them on my 15 min and 1 hour charts so that those levels stand out. Yesterday from Asia to Lon it went like clock work on the 15 mins from 1.3611 down to 1.3550. Then it sat there for a bit and I could see it was unable to break the 1.3550...
if its not too much to ask. im ignorant of the theory you employ but sounds interesting, what is murrey math, i will look it up online and try to learn it but would you care to clarify if i have questions.

i want to learn the more tools the better
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #390,896
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:30am Feb 19, 2011 11:30am
  •  Vilgax
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Lack of money is root of most evil | 466 Posts
Quoting infinitus
Here is an helpful link for understanding Murrey Math:

http://howitworks.mymurreymath.com/


here it is again :-))
The forex market has its own life and takes its own time.
  • #390,897
  • Edited 11:38am Feb 19, 2011 11:35am | Edited 11:38am
  •  Vilgax
  • | Joined Aug 2010 | Status: Lack of money is root of most evil | 466 Posts
Quoting infinitus
Hello Kassec,

here is the MM All Time Frame Indicator you asked for.

See your private mail.


Many pips to you,


Markus
Infinitus posted the indi on 7 Oct 2010 on FF. You can find it on page # 20194 post # 302902
The forex market has its own life and takes its own time.
  • #390,898
  • Feb 19, 2011 11:36am Feb 19, 2011 11:36am
Some people here forget that indicators can point to overbought or sold for weeks.And since the setup was to kill bears,same story which happened few weeks before Christmas,when most where conned into short positions,I suggest don't role out possibility for 1.38 to come.
  • #390,899
  • Feb 19, 2011 12:00pm Feb 19, 2011 12:00pm
Quoting Vilgax
Infinitus posted the indi on 7 Oct 2010 on FF. You can find it on page # 20194 post # 302902
Thank you...
  • #390,900
  • Feb 19, 2011 12:14pm Feb 19, 2011 12:14pm
Quoting FibbinArchie
Everything from H4 and lower is reading as over-bought. Key areas to watch for on any retrace (in my opinion):

674, 650, 628, 609...

Major inflection area, switching longer term bias back to bearish will be break and hold below Friday's low @ 545...
already at the first level...

current quote: 70 bid, 76 offer...
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