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  • #390,861
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:24am Feb 19, 2011 8:24am
this is my picture for DAILY. please comment.
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  • #390,862
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:26am Feb 19, 2011 8:26am
Quoting geocatalinfx
this is my picture for DAILY. please comment.

thats one helluva bear flag
  • #390,863
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:28am Feb 19, 2011 8:28am
The EUR is a bit noisy at the moment... The G20 could make the difference.
  • #390,864
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:30am Feb 19, 2011 8:30am
Simply pull up a 30 min chart and place a fork from 14/2/ low and it becomes clear where to wait for buying/selling tickets.
My previous trades worked like a charm.[/quote]

can you post chart?
thx
  • #390,865
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:46am Feb 19, 2011 8:46am
Everything from H4 and lower is reading as over-bought. Key areas to watch for on any retrace (in my opinion):

674, 650, 628, 609...

Major inflection area, switching longer term bias back to bearish will be break and hold below Friday's low @ 545...
  • #390,866
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:53am Feb 19, 2011 8:53am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Everything from H4 and lower is reading as over-bought. Key areas to watch for on any retrace (in my opinion):

674, 650, 628

Major inflection area, switching longer term bias back to bearish will be break and hold below Friday's low @ 545...
Yep, agreed- think itll touch the low?
  • #390,867
  • Feb 19, 2011 8:53am Feb 19, 2011 8:53am
Quoting the redlion
i agree the euro will be a in a down trend, it appears in the grand scale of things technical and foundamentally that it will be so.

but price DOES NOT MOVE IN A STRAIGHT LINE. many fluctuations to come. we are trading in the NOW, but lets be aware of the overall market conditions

price is unlikely to pass through 1.43. but till then

lets not be on the BEAR side or the BULL side, but...


Thank you Redlion,

fairly view. As I have stated in my posting: At this point everything is possible but not a new bull run.

May take a new high over 386x - good chance

New high over 42x - can not imagine


I try to stand at the side where the price runs. Sometimes it is not easy because EW says chances are extreme high to reverse etc.

Indicators are now i a special situation. TF's up to 4 hour show "Overbought" dailys and weeklys oftentimes at the middle line (as well as price at the middleline of the bollinger). But is there enough momentum left to get prices higher without a meaningful correctio (to reload momentum) is questionable.

But this indicators can stay for a long long time in overbought/oversold.

Everything is possible from here: straight down, a little correction, or directly to new highs.

We will see....
  • #390,868
  • Edited 9:15am Feb 19, 2011 8:58am | Edited 9:15am
Markus , Jayvolin or any other interested in EW ca please check & comment big big waves as corrective or impulse as they all in big confusion at this stages and also posting smaller & recent waves with possible counts.
Any way 6-2010, also 1-2011 came as threat like 3-2009 so far .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #390,869
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:00am Feb 19, 2011 9:00am
Quoting Piters
Well, I need to FineTune my levels, missed 6pips..





Good job.

Underestimated momentum. But turned my position. On the other hand I burned that money by countertrading the "spikes" LOL

Wish you a nice weekend,


Markus
  • #390,870
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:08am Feb 19, 2011 9:08am
Quoting fontu
Markus , Jayvolin or any other interested in EW ca please check & comment big big waves as corrective or impulse as they all in big confusion at this stages and also posting smaller & recent waves with possible counts.

fontu

hi fontu...

markus is right... these waves right now aren't impulsive.... its in balan's book and i'm pretty sure pretcher says it also.... impulsive waves are easy to count... the drop from 1.51 to 1.18 is clearly impulsive...

the rise from 1.18 to up 1.42 i can only make sense of as an AB=CD and it does perfectly so... = formed a bearish bat pattern as i posted a month or so back...

markus, what do you make of that move from 1.18 up to 1.42? an impulsive 5 wave??? or an ABC correction of the previous move from 1.51??

at this stage nothing on the EU chart makes sense to me.. so i suggest these are all corrective patterns - i am trying to label them as reasonalby as i can but struggling, market is in a really big indecision at the moment... better to make trades with smaller targets...

EDIT: the middle chart you posted did cross my mind... and there is another leg up to go yet - which could be truncated... i don't see this instantly reversing monday... but who knows
  • #390,871
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:12am Feb 19, 2011 9:12am
Quoting 22pipsup
Yep, agreed- think itll touch the low?
higher low at 3628 would be my guess...
  • #390,872
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:24am Feb 19, 2011 9:24am
Quoting pkimnyc
2 questions,

1. is that really an impulse move? (down move from 1.428 to 1.29 area)
2. since we have the same view of the up move from 1.29 area as abc (labeled in orange), what are the odds of c wave stopping at 78 fib level?

imho, if you get rid of the initial impulse count then the answer might be a lot simpler. c wave = a wave at least, i think. just my 2c.


Hi Pkimnyc,

thanks for your questions:

1.) it can be counted as an impulse in different ways, but I saw corrective counts also which were compelling.

As I stated oftentimes: currency pairs are not the best area to count EW, because one side of the pair is bull, the other side is bear. Today I called it Schizophrenic EW counting

2.) Wave 2's can retrace all of wave 1's advance. The more it retraces, the more people are fooled. A wave two (especially its C-wave) wants us to believe to be in a new trend.

Since the low of the wave aqua down was at 2997, the high at 3862 retraced 67% of wave 1.

That is fine with me.

But if the up-correction was not finalized there odds are high that we take nearly all , 83 or 78.6 % back.

But with every pip over a 62% correction odds start favoring another count.

Maybe the 1.42 was only an A-wave, 1.29 was B wave.

A=C would bring us back at 1.53, C=0.62xA would bring us slightly above 1.43


We will see.

Have a nice weekend,

Markus
  • #390,873
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:28am Feb 19, 2011 9:28am
Quoting the redlion
its facinating how we all have our theories,

elliot wave, although i have read about it i am not that much aware of it i just know that theres is

1 impulse, 2 pull back (great long opportunity)...


Soooooooo true :-)

My speciality: when I trade my believes I can not find my money management - autch....
  • #390,874
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:31am Feb 19, 2011 9:31am
i short at close level of NY too.i think the price will test 13630 as a key support zone before advance north.
Quoting Atlast
I have taken a short position at close on friday to give an easy point victory for the market to fall back to 1.3650 on monday with a possibility to get to 1.3550 over next few days before advancing.

Simply pull up a 30 min chart and place a fork from 14/2/ low and it becomes clear where to wait for buying/selling tickets.
My previous trades worked like a charm.
  • #390,875
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:38am Feb 19, 2011 9:38am
Quoting Raza
Why not mark 1.18xx as wave#4 on weekly then do the count for wave#5 UP!

either its still in wave#2 or wave three has started.(if there is a rush). Its hard to imagine US $ GOING to 0...........

By the way as of friday in 1 MIN or 5 Min chart there is still last wave UP is left to go . Friday close is wave#4 or WaveB. This Bit**h aint going down before touching 1.3733 at with extension upto 1.3786.IMO.

You can label that as wave A at 1.3743... wave B at 1.3428 .. wave C at 1.3486 MAX.IMO.

And an impulse to 1.3508 can be labelled...


Hi Raza,

wish you a nice weekend.

Thank you for your reply. I had a conversation with Jaylovin and I wrote the following answer:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=390906

Please read especially the section about sentiment.

The letter contains/answers literally all your remarks/questions .

Catch ya later,


Markus
  • #390,876
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:45am Feb 19, 2011 9:45am
Quoting Raza
I am sure you have read his Post( charts)...

His way of finding FIB ratios are difficult.. I have a much better and simple way of finding that to the PIP....at least for EURO..
Hi Raza,

might you share it with us? If top secret I will not ask again :-)
  • #390,877
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:49am Feb 19, 2011 9:49am
Quoting Raza
I dont follow them... But at least people have some better clue there than most in FF.

Anyways what if we have something like this... and then we can say WTF...happened?

PK have a look and tell me it is not possible..


Hi Raza,

that count has my highest priority.

a) we are only pips away to invalidate the 1-2, 1-2 count

b) we would get rid of the something bad to count second 1

c) UDX is almost in this count

d) we have at least one more subwave ro go up
  • #390,878
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:53am Feb 19, 2011 9:53am
Quoting Chicky
She gave me an option, Trading or Drinking, but not both. I do trade now since late August 2010.

She stopped me from trading last year for more than three months. At that time trading seemed to interfer with my drinking.
Same thing with my girlfriend. She interfered with my drinking. Obviously I made the right choice and kicked the correct habit to the curb... the girlfriend!
  • #390,879
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:54am Feb 19, 2011 9:54am
Quoting KillerWhale
Lol, I usually make the best trades when I'm drunk.
I lose all kinds of risk awareness, go bigger than ever, then fall asleep and wake up couple of hours later and collect my gain.
Don't know why but it always works.

Shamu

lo u need to try crackforex or forex weeds u sleep for 24h may be a week it works better
  • #390,880
  • Feb 19, 2011 9:57am Feb 19, 2011 9:57am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Sounds like something Mark Douglas talks about. If a trader has a bias and a position in the market based on that bias, then any market movement against that position results in a loss of capital, loss can be perceived as pain (especially if the position is highly leveraged relative to account size), the trader therefore filters information out that is indicating the market is not going their way and that could therefore be perceived as painful...

It's a basic sub conscious, instinctive, defence mechanism also known as being in a state of denial,...

Hi Archie,

This has been something I have been trying to focus on as of late. I have my levels. Ignoring bias, determine if price is going to be supported or resisted at this level (hardest part), then trade to the next level and ask that same support/resist question again.

Trading is so mind numbingly stupid. It should not be this hard for us to master it... we are our biggest walls in succeeding at this world!! hah

Have a wonderful weekend, and many drinks to all!
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