EURUSD

EU at cross roads , may got fire either side but untill & otherwise proved may take bearish side for medium long term. otherwise proved be include breaks desicive at 1.3861 , next 1.5141 & last 1.6037 , long ways to confirm a bull .
From big waves it seems apparently unfolded bear but still suspecion there now and from higher tf like weekly & monthly.

Will watch the last wave up from 1.2873 is actually an impulse or corection , corection then go down to follow bear more , impulse bull may start win side .

That is why I used to tell /think we still not know even after 1000s of pip movement if actually impulse or correction!! after all a BIG MOFU play.
fontu

EURUSD weekly analysis



Price has closed close to the top of the weekly range and the 1.3861 multi-week high looks vulnerable.

 

1. Price found support at the 1.3440 area and this is still key support should there be any retrace
2. A break of the 1.3861 recent weekly high will leave the October 2010 1.4281 area looking like a possibility.

More weekly chart analysis

cheers

fxp

yup, a good scenario,,
The EU is still strong enough to continue its rally,,
may be corrected before continuing the rally

Lol, I usually make the best trades when I'm drunk.
I lose all kinds of risk awareness, go bigger than ever, then fall asleep and wake up couple of hours later and collect my gain.
Don't know why but it always works.

Shamu

Does anyone trade EurUsd using the Italian Famous Trader Maxx Mareghetti's software named "OptionPopularity" ?
This software maps the option data table of FXE (Eurusd ETF) and calcultates the Lower and Upper Breakeven for the month.
It has also a very interesting Equitiline for 2010.
The software can map FXE, GLD (Gold), SPY (S&P500) And USO (United states OIL).
This is the link I have found for downloading and installing the free version at this link : http://www.massimomereghetti.com/ind...arity_software

scalped a few long on friday... stopped out on previous short... Thank the lord for MM... and thank cloggie for his tutorial on reversing your position to ride the wave... i came out break even friday which is better than loosing - so am grateful for it.

price did break the 1.3620 - should have known to be honest it was an area everyone was short so an obvious point to flush out... anyways this move made me re count my waves.... chances are we are looking at an uptrend continuation from EU.. as fontu mentions we are at crossroads at the moment...

usdx chart posted which shows we just completed an 5 wave impulse down though i have an issue with wave 2 breaking out of its channel... and wave 5 being the same length as wave 1 but also breaks out of its channel implying to be an extended wave.

we may see an ABC correction on monday - which could be wave 2 of a bigger move down for USDX.... then we see if wave 3 drives this usdx further down.. just a wave count idea here... feel free to rip apart... i'm aways learning.

There is an alternative and that is we are in wave 2 right now about to start wave 3 to the upside for USDx... breaking below 77.5 means could go much lower - but it still may only be wave 2 correction for the move to the upside for the USDx unless 76.88 gets taken out... if any of that makes sense then god bless you. maybe you can explain it back to me someday as i have no clue

Bear in mind USDx is approaching a weekly support... something to keep an eye out for... and price did close below/at the 61.8% retracement of the previous down move... so this point is critical for us to see whether eu goes up or reverses... looking into eu charts next.

not much to say really for eu.. no idea with wave counts on this - still working on it but simple chart says break above and it'll open doors for 1.3750 and potentially 1.3860 for even more... below and we test 1.3620 again... dangerous area to be in.

will try to do some more analysis over the weekend... but damn i need to go get myself a life again..

Also in Nairobi

It might go to 3540 but i would be surprised if it closes lower than that on a H4 or daily.

3420 is my ultimate support though.

Dips have been bought for a while




.

Yap


Looks like a bull flag to me which is a continuation pattern

once that flag breaks 4280 will be taken out imo

of course not without corrections along the way

resistance areas like 3750 turning to support will tell the story

some rubbish numbers i have on my mind are 1.3400+1300=1.4700

Or if the flag breakout is at 3740 you add the size of the pole which i estimate at 1000 (3860-2860) for rough target of 4740




.

Wow! You must be kidding right? Or else you must be the mischievous famous Chinese Drunken God instead. Please tell me whenever you got drunk, I will definitely follow your trade actions. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gifhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif

Cheers! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

daily view

Lucky bastard!

Looks like the EUR/USD bullflag targets the 1.45 area. Look out a long yesterday on EUR/USD and going for 800 pips target.

Sounds like something Mark Douglas talks about. If a trader has a bias and a position in the market based on that bias, then any market movement against that position results in a loss of capital, loss can be perceived as pain (especially if the position is highly leveraged relative to account size), the trader therefore filters information out that is indicating the market is not going their way and that could therefore be perceived as painful...

It's a basic sub conscious, instinctive, defence mechanism also known as being in a state of denial, and one of the reasons we are not naturally wired correctly to trade effectively...

May also explain the hold losers mentality...

I have taken a short position at close on friday to give an easy point victory for the market to fall back to 1.3650 on monday with a possibility to get to 1.3550 over next few days before advancing.

Simply pull up a 30 min chart and place a fork from 14/2/ low and it becomes clear where to wait for buying/selling tickets.
My previous trades worked like a charm.

Did you see the picture of my USD/CAD trade last week? it's a perfect example of what I mean. Tuesday I was drunk and I bought into the lows and I kept going till Friday morning suddenly it went my way. 4 days of waiting and trading, Thursday night I was at a heavy pending loss and then 2 hours on Friday morning I made a ton of money.

The blue ones are buys of 4 mini lots each,
The last one, the down arrow is were I woke up on Friday and took my profit from all the hard work and closed out everything I had going.

I wonder what I'm going to do next week.
I will probably need some booze and then I will find a trade that fits me.

Life is a lot of fun, especially when you get it with fx

Shamu

i've found bull flags don't really always work... a break out one direction is safe to tp to the nearest resistance imo but pole count for projection price isn't always achieved.. i guess it does help if the breakout is in the direction of the trend... but have been burnt a few times trying this method out...cheers

if you take a look at my post above.. http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=390893

i've drawn parallel lines which fit much better for a flag... next week will show me personally the way.. gl

Hello Jaylovin,

it is everytime a good habit to stay open minded and look at other solutions beside our (you and me) usual bearish view.

I had similar thought yesterday evening so I went back to the bench and looked at the waves starting with monthly, then daily and so on, to look if my ideas on the large TF's were met at the smaller ones.

Yes, it looks tempting to count the recent upmoves in EURUSD or downmoves in UDX as an impulse. But is it really one? I believe not. It can not be counted as an 1-2-3-4-5 impulse at all. Parts of the move up in EURUSD (or down in UDX) - yes, but not the whole move. Waves are fractal and we have to find the same (or similar) moves in the small TF's and the larger ones.

To conclude: the move up from 3428 can not be counted as an impulse, parts yes, but no way to count it as impulse as a whole.

Looking at weekly and dailys TF's and trying to count the downmoves in EURUSD as impulses and the upmoves as corrections:

OK, sometimes it seems that we need a bit far stretched ABC flats in it, but good. May work on daily, works sometimes on weekly on weekly.

But using this big TF's it is upmost important to look what the smaller TF's are doing, since waves are fractal.

And there the pain starts for this count:

a) it looks at first sight corrective
b) you need a lot faaaaar streched ABC-flats
c) a boatload of overlapping waves'
d) impulses, where you can not count other than to get the result, that wave 3 is the shortest one (and that is forbidden)

e) when you can not easily count an impulse it is likely a correction

I researched the whole moves up and down since 2008 high in EURUSD at 1.6x

And like I have stated oftentimes here, currencies might not be the best place for EW counting, since we trade pairs (it is a bit like schizophrenic Elliott wave - for one side of the pair bull, for the other bear).

My preffered view on EURUSD is bearish and that one for UDX is bullish, even so the waves and counts oftentimes are not ideal.

But when I do the counting it is obvious for me, that I can make more often the count with this bearish (EURUSD) view than with an bullish view/count.

To make it short: for me odds (only by looking at counts) favor a bearish stance regarding EURUSD or bullish UDX on larger TF's.

But there is more than pure EW to it.

Look at a weekly chart: we are in downtrend since 2008, and the actual wave up started at 1.18 has roo to run up without invalidating the downsloping trendline (1.6x to 1.51x). At the recent angle we travel up we will meet the trendline at around 4160.

Fundamentals:

We live in times, where most parts of the world have such huge amounts of debt, that no-one will ever be able to pay it back. We are at the beginning of a tidal wave of defaulting countries. It is only the start.

Theory is: Most debt worldwide is denominated in USD. When debt implodes, these USD are lost for the system, causing that the remaining USD will raise in value. This is not to say that USD is a healthy currency. I am far from that, but it is, for the next years due to the aforementioned fact in the best position. There will be times to abandon the USD too, but not yet.


Sentiment:

Over the last three weeks we had 7, 15 and now 11% USD bulls left.

Look at momentum indicators: seems that momentum on the larger TF#s is fading away.

When only so few USD bulls are left, it means everybody and his dog is already invested in EUR and abandoned the USD. To fuel the fire for more fireworks you would need more and more people which are willing to sell USD. But there is literally no one left (so to say - I knew it is wrong, because every seller has a buyer, but the around 90% of the participants aggreed already, that EURUSD should be at 1.37x, and now they need to convince the remaining 10% to pay even more.)

And soon enough this 90% will acknowledge, that there is no buyer for EUR for a price of 1.37 USD. The will start to run all to the same door.

And that brings us back to Elliott Wave:

Elliott Wave is about sentiment. The waves are the gauges for market sentiment. Put sentiment data on every top or low of your waves and you will get the picture.

And the picture says:

We are at a temporary high and we have at least as much EURUSD bulls as we had at the tops over our head.

Rallys start with a very low market sentiment. Tops are mad with a very high market sentiment.

And now the question: we are at an extreme USD bearish / EURUSD bullish market sentiment. Repeat: extreme

How, do you think, will this extreme be worked off???


With a small ABC correction to the other side?

Think twice.......


Jaylovin!!! Are you with me or have I lost you? Do not complain, you asked for "ripping" :-))

yes i did ask for ripping

i am merely looking at other views... I haven't changed my bearish view but as you say its important to look at other views here...

but its also important to see where the weekly and daily candles left for us... plain and simply i see bullish.... what do you see?

USD 1h chart downwards could work as a 5 wave... its not 100% clean but i don't always expect them to be... maybe impulsive is the wrong word... maybe 5 waves within a corrective down move from the USDx - i just noticed this...

there are many views regarding which way the market might be headed... not predicting - just speculating. it'll do what it wants, we all know that.

agree when usd becomes cheap.. people will buy it...

EDIT: btw markus, i haven't counted EU... only looking at usdx atm as i'm still trying ot figure out eu