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  • #390,781
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:26pm Feb 18, 2011 4:26pm
Quoting mercy seat
2011-02-17 _ 23h00 CET _ EUR-USD : CLOSING (Thursday)

RECAP:

(+03) Trend + Potential (neutral + mild bullish risk) Potenzial ist noch etwas schwach geblieben ...

0.0082 Écart

1.3428 Elliott EX-Reversal Point

1.3665 Elliott Projection (possibly a re-test of 1.3619 - 1.3627 zone and correction down 1.3556 - 1.3547 and then flat correction up 1.3665 in premature bullish action structure)



pivots + spezi



0.0082 Écart


1.3719 1.3684
1.3669 1.3657
1.3619...

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif 2011-02-18_22h50_Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates (Clôture 07) FR.pdf (8.1 KB)

Here they are ... latest Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates (Clôture 07) markets are closed now ...

EUR/USD 1.3689/91


Und tschüss ... schönes Wochenende



;-|
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 2011-02-18_22h50_Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates (Clôture 07) FR.pdf   8 KB | 457 downloads
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #390,782
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:28pm Feb 18, 2011 4:28pm
Quoting mercy seat
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/pdf.gif 2011-02-18_22h50_Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates (Clôture 07) FR.pdf (8.1 KB)

Here they are ... latest Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates (Clôture 07) markets are closed now ...

EUR/USD 1.3689/91


Und tschüss ... schönes Wochenende



;-|
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #390,783
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:34pm Feb 18, 2011 4:34pm
I had not anticipated this sharp rise today and it was pure luck, that I got out with small profit (but not worth the time). Had an trailing stop and took a shower as I was sure that it was only a small wave 4. At this bottom level today I had sell orders in the estimated wave 4 to load up in the wave 4 pullback which impacted my result very negatively in that situation.

I was so sure about the count. Well, another lesson to learn.

And now the big question: how to count that move?

Right now I have no good clue, maybe an idea. If we stay under 3744 we can stay in our 1-2, 1-2 count (counted from the top @ 386x)

If we break that level, then the wave down from 38x was 1 and the whole rest an ABC flat

But maybe this whole move down from 386x to today is only part of the big wave 2 started last June from 1.18xx

My biggest hope for the bearish case rests now on the sentiment data.

But then again: look at daily TF to the right side of the chart to that point where we are right now. If that is the start of a wave 3 (or subwaves of that wave 3), then it looks not like that what I expect from a wave 3.

Daily and weekly should close under 3672 (Murrey Math trading line), at least max 2 baby MMTL above that to keep the bearish case.

To look once again on weekly chart we likely have seen only a retest of this MMTL at 3671 from the underside with a shoot over. So it would be very important to close under it. And only looking at weekly chart we see a clear impulse down from 1.42x

But judging from the weekly maybe we have all counted the hourly or 4h charts wrong.

Waves are fractal, and when the low around 2874 was on weekly the end of wave 5, then this point has to be the end of wave 5 on dailys and other TF's too. Why has no one provided this count or logic beforehand? The more I think about it, the more obvious it gets.

OK, in this proposed wave 5 you can see on daily TF 4 candles down. That is one too much. But especially in Forex we oftentimes experience missing waves. But another solution for that problem would be, that the impulse ended after 3 candles down, and the fourth candle is part of the following corrective waves.

The move up from the bottom at 1.28x is under discussion too.

Maybe the top a 1.386 was the end of the corrective wave aqua 2. Then we would be down in a series of 1-2's. That can only stay true, if actual price action stays under 3744. If that is broken to the upside, then the possibility of a 1-2 remains, where the two would be an ABC flat correction. For this count to stay valid we have to stay under the top of 1.386.

Only when this is broken to the upper side too, the below shown count will come into play.

The counting of the wave aqua one will stay, out of my sight, for all alternatives valid.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 02182011 weekly proposal evening main count bearish eurusd.jpg Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 02182011 4hl evening main count bearish eurusd.jpg Size: 137 KB
  • #390,784
  • Edited 4:50pm Feb 18, 2011 4:36pm | Edited 4:50pm
Quoting Citiboy
PA on EURUSD really compelled me to stop lurking and post. I am confused on a few things today .... makes no sense.
To me, the only thing that makes any sense is the on-going political and central bank jawboning, implied intervention, and real defensive sovereign buying that has characterized the EUR since late December.

The market "knows" the EZ has substantial -some believe fatal- banking, debt, and liquidity problems that are not being addressed, and may not be able to be, in fact. The fundamental arguments on balance, sooner or later, come around to "short." The authorities know that, and know that a too-substantial break would self fulfill the bearish beliefs, making it all that much harder and costly to stop a slide.

So the authorities keep the market guessing and cautious. This 'leak' was just another link in that chain.

Just because economics, if not history, is on your side in the long run, the market speculators know that in the long run they're all broke and/or dead, and there's no reason to stand against the forces of central authority in the short run.

Very good first post, IMO.
  • #390,785
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:41pm Feb 18, 2011 4:41pm
Well I'm still trying to upload my Oanda file

Lol it certainly shows how bizzy I was the last few days.

Every blue arrow up represents 4 mini lots of 10,000 units, the last arrow down represents me taking the profit for a week of hard work.


Shamu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD-CAD 02-18-11.JPG Size: 155 KB
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #390,786
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:51pm Feb 18, 2011 4:51pm
Sorry but I dont see the realationship to my comments and your question. Could you enlighten me?



Quoting Larseg
So the problems in israel is over?

Good to hear
  • #390,787
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:55pm Feb 18, 2011 4:55pm
Quoting attila
Alright, let me add to the BS here. I have a question for all the fundies guys here.

Can anybody tell me that in reality the Banks did not know about the announcement ahead of time? I find that impossible to believe. Their actions were obvious AHEAD of the news. They drove the price down as much as they could so they can get the most bang for the buck. It's always like that. Just watch what they do BEFORE something happens.

And yes, the final targets are always in the charts. News/announcements are just reasons for the Banks to throw a party....
Reading FX history in one f the Kathy Lien books, i can see that still macroeconomic and intervention actually what moves the price in the longer term at least before asian crisis and definitely before mortgage and sovereign debt crisis in the US&EU. Now it is completely out of picture, i'm not sure even banks know what fundamental to follow so now technical and market psychology is taking place without any strong fundamental reason so in general sense all those real money accounts will look at the best performer recommendation (eg. GS) and just put money simply because it is the best from the worst maybe .
  • #390,788
  • Feb 18, 2011 6:35pm Feb 18, 2011 6:35pm
Quoting essenza
Reading FX history in one f the Kathy Lien books, i can see that still macroeconomic and intervention actually what moves the price in the longer term at least before asian crisis and definitely before mortgage and sovereign debt crisis in the US&EU. Now it is completely out of picture, i'm not sure even banks know what fundamental to follow so now technical and market psychology is taking place without any strong fundamental reason so in general sense all those real money accounts will look at the best performer recommendation (eg. GS) and just...
If you look at her results you see that she doesnt do anything special, she has a big drawdowns before she tkes a small win or a small loss.

http://www.bktraderfx.com/site/wp-co...port051508.pdf

This strategy is probably something you have to do for being profitable in forex..

You can also add on to next trade with a good risk reward, you will have the same results.. just looks different...
  • #390,789
  • Feb 18, 2011 6:39pm Feb 18, 2011 6:39pm
Quoting infinitus
I had not anticipated this sharp rise today and it was pure luck, that I got out with small profit (but not worth the time). Had an trailing stop and took a shower as I was sure that it was only a small wave 4. At this bottom level today I had sell orders in the estimated wave 4 to load up in the wave 4 pullback which impacted my result very negatively in that situation.

I was so sure about the count. Well, another lesson to learn.

And now the big question: how to count that move?

Right now I have no good clue, maybe an idea. If we stay...

i agree the euro will be a in a down trend, it appears in the grand scale of things technical and foundamentally that it will be so.

but price DOES NOT MOVE IN A STRAIGHT LINE. many fluctuations to come. we are trading in the NOW, but lets be aware of the overall market conditions

price is unlikely to pass through 1.43. but till then

lets not be on the BEAR side or the BULL side, but the RIGHT side.
simple indicators tell the picture better

MACD , SLOW STOCH, RSI on the daily are upwards, trendlines broken on the upside, next resistance is 1.37 1.36400 was taken out, according to bollinger theory it should be clear to hit the upper bands,

whether it will or not, is another story, price will do what it will do but as far as

MONTHLY PIVOTS, opened and found support on central pivot, 1.34479
R1 is 1.40, fibonacci projection from last high and low 1.39's, but till the market turns i will no longer try to anticipate it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart.PNG Size: 99 KB
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #390,790
  • Feb 18, 2011 6:40pm Feb 18, 2011 6:40pm
Quoting Physcho Ward
Sorry but I dont see the realationship to my comments and your question. Could you enlighten me?
Not much support from market movers as israel and probably US will be dragged in to this shit...

other words, fundamentally not good for US = bad for USD...

EUR will probably dive when its over....


But as you said pure technically it looks overbought..
  • #390,791
  • Feb 18, 2011 6:45pm Feb 18, 2011 6:45pm
daily chart tells the picture better, it is not overbought
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #390,792
  • Feb 18, 2011 6:48pm Feb 18, 2011 6:48pm
Quoting infinitus
Yeah, but that announcment is now in our back. Sell the news.......

If we climb back it will have nothing to do with a "vague" proposed announcement.


So far me and my shorts like the downsloping action
Quoting cloggie
Close enough for government work, I can live without the last 5 pips, 1630 I am covering. The miraculous tea leaf readers that knew all about the ECB announcement this morning and the WTF's (not mutually exclusive) can have the floor freely again, I won't be here to call them on their BS.

See y'all

Well, I need to FineTune my levels, missed 6pips..

Quoting Piters

if [when] we cross 3640, then 3720 is a place to park for this week..

cheers..

Quoting Piters
lol, we may go even a bit higher at 3710 =SD1
  • #390,793
  • Feb 18, 2011 6:50pm Feb 18, 2011 6:50pm
Quoting infinitus
I had not anticipated this sharp rise today and it was pure luck, that I got out with small profit (but not worth the time). Had an trailing stop and took a shower as I was sure that it was only a small wave 4. At this bottom level today I had sell orders in the estimated wave 4 to load up in the wave 4 pullback which impacted my result very negatively in that situation.

I was so sure about the count. Well, another lesson to learn.

And now the big question: how to count that move?

Right now I have no good clue, maybe an idea. If we stay...
2 questions,

1. is that really an impulse move? (down move from 1.428 to 1.29 area)
2. since we have the same view of the up move from 1.29 area as abc (labeled in orange), what are the odds of c wave stopping at 78 fib level?

imho, if you get rid of the initial impulse count then the answer might be a lot simpler. c wave = a wave at least, i think. just my 2c.
  • #390,794
  • Feb 18, 2011 7:01pm Feb 18, 2011 7:01pm
its facinating how we all have our theories,

elliot wave, although i have read about it i am not that much aware of it i just know that theres is

1 impulse, 2 pull back (great long opportunity) 3 wave (should be greater than 1+2, and fourth corrective before 5th wave down

but there can be many waves within the wave.

my biggest problem is that i want to be a day trader but im so used to swing/position trading with daily that i do better at that.

my tools are:
when swing trading:

1-MACD,RSI,STOCH (not necessarily follow them but they keep me honest)
2- fibonacci retracement and projections
3- pivot points
4-psycological wholoe numbers
5- support and resistance
6-trendlines
7- moving averages/bollinger bands
8- Parabollic SAR
9- candle sticks

seems like a lot but my brain likes this style, confluence is where i make my money. when im not impatient, or trying just to trade. or telling the market what to do.

if i can stay disciplined i make 9/10, 5/6, or 3/4 trades.
when i feel like being d*mb and trading on what I THINK THE MARKET SHOULD BE DOING. i get f*cked hard
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #390,795
  • Feb 18, 2011 7:21pm Feb 18, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting the redlion
its facinating how we all have our theories,

elliot wave, although i have read about it i am not that much aware of it i just know that theres is

1 impulse, 2 pull back (great long opportunity) 3 wave (should be greater than 1+2, and fourth corrective before 5th wave down

but there can be many waves within the wave.

my biggest problem is that i want to be a day trader but im so used to swing/position trading with daily that i do better at that.

my tools are:
when swing trading:

1-MACD,RSI,STOCH (not necessarily follow them but they...
Try to get rid of everything except 5 and 9.
Tell me if its better now.

Back to the main topic now... finally eurusd is going up, i would have expected a bigger move up at least until 1,3800 for this week.
Maybe next week.
If it doesn't go up next week i feel a drop for the coming weeks...otherwise 1,4000 is in the way, and even higher.
Long from 1,3455 still opened, stop 1,3530 right below the big demand area.

Time will tell

Have a nice week end guys
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #390,796
  • Feb 18, 2011 7:35pm Feb 18, 2011 7:35pm
Quoting kuroro001
Try to get rid of everything except 5 and 9.
Tell me if its better now.

Back to the main topic now... finally eurusd is going up, i would have expected a bigger move up at least until 1,3800 for this week.
Maybe next week.
If it doesn't go up next week i feel a drop for the coming weeks...otherwise 1,4000 is in the way, and even higher.
Long from 1,3455 still opened, stop 1,3530 right below the big demand area.

Time will tell

Have a nice week end guys
nah man, i like my style makes it fun, you even said what im saying it all comes down to the same crap.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #390,797
  • Feb 18, 2011 7:47pm Feb 18, 2011 7:47pm
Quoting the redlion
its facinating how we all have our theories,

elliot wave, although i have read about it i am not that much aware of it i just know that theres is

1 impulse, 2 pull back (great long opportunity)...
All time frames trade the same, the only thing that changes are the ranges of play. Applying the same information and adjusting your gains and losses to the shorter time frames will allow you to trade the same style as you currently are on at a faster pace.

There is nothing saying that you cannot swing and still scalp or position a couple of other trades. The only thing that will prevent you from going in on the quickie counters is if you have a Yankee broker who won't allow hedged positions or that runs by the FIFO rules...

Even still, as long as you are tripping with the trends, you can adjust your swings in shorter fashions off the Hourly or H4 charts.

I work with many of the same tools, but do most of my trading off the 1 and 5m charts working with direction from the longer time frames.

Keep the coffee hot and your trigger finger ready and hammer in the hits as they suite your style.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #390,798
  • Feb 18, 2011 7:49pm Feb 18, 2011 7:49pm
if i can stay disciplined i make 9/10, 5/6, or 3/4 trades.
when i feel like being d*mb and trading on what I THINK THE MARKET SHOULD BE DOING. i get f*cked hard[/quote]

I am hoping that with experience and success i will stop entering stupid trades. have been able to stick to the plan lately, and account is showing it. nothing better than to plan a successful week and give back much trying to gain a few extra pips. i have planned and journal every trade. it helps me maintain my disicipline.
Attached Image
  • #390,799
  • Feb 18, 2011 8:00pm Feb 18, 2011 8:00pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Well I'm still trying to upload my Oanda file

Lol it certainly shows how bizzy I was the last few days.

Every blue arrow up represents 4 mini lots of 10,000 units, the last arrow down represents me taking the profit for a week of hard work.


Shamu
OMG.

If I am ever able to place so many trades, may get 100% a month.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #390,800
  • Feb 18, 2011 8:03pm Feb 18, 2011 8:03pm
Quoting Chicky
OMG.

If I am ever able to place so many trades, may get 100% a month.
i thought your doctor said no trading...
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