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  • #390,601
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:16am Feb 18, 2011 10:16am
Quoting cloggie
No most of them aren't as they are priced in, this one was. The rate hike news came out of the blue as Lorenzo let it slip. This was not a ECB "sanctioned" release or else we would have seen a 300 pip run.
I think it was a "slip" to get Portugals attention as ECB wants to "bail" them out ,but Portugal doesn't want the sanctions that come with it. If ECB did raise, PIIGS would be on the truck to the slaughterhouse alot sooner.
  • #390,602
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:17am Feb 18, 2011 10:17am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment
no, i don't have that on any feed.
must be an broker feed error.
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  • #390,603
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:18am Feb 18, 2011 10:18am
ouch, you will be surprised where we are on monday.

Quoting FishHead
Apparently I'm not alone in thinking this is pair is going to bomb pretty soon. This whole uptrend has felt odd to me for a while now, and these surges look like an obvious markup.

I'm guessing it's going to climb a bit more and drop like a rock once it's finally overbought on 1H, which could be as soon as Monday.
  • #390,604
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:19am Feb 18, 2011 10:19am
Possible pA, late posting due connection lost .long taken.fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #390,605
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:20am Feb 18, 2011 10:20am
103 pips
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  • #390,606
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:21am Feb 18, 2011 10:21am
Quoting uksnowman
took a buy off yesterday's high SL +5. Let's go find some stops!
Still holding longs (and on EJ). Time to light the rockets!
  • #390,607
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:22am Feb 18, 2011 10:22am
Closed first long @ 3654
  • #390,608
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:23am Feb 18, 2011 10:23am
I think euro just revealed itself to fib level 61.8? or 3695?
  • #390,609
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:24am Feb 18, 2011 10:24am
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
ouch, you will be surprised where we are on monday.
Probably, but you're not George Soros so I doubt you know for a fact where it's going, either.

Speculation is speculation.
  • #390,610
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:25am Feb 18, 2011 10:25am
Quoting Physcho Ward
I think euro just revealed itself to fib level 61.8? or 3695?
man...I got burned today on JPY pairs...

S&P is incredible strong...refused to go down...
  • #390,611
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:25am Feb 18, 2011 10:25am
i know enough to see whole last weak as strength and buying. it's all about hiding orderflow as good as possible.

also monday we have exotic options worth 150mil expiring with strike 3800 10am est

Quoting FishHead
Probably, but you're not George Soros so I doubt you know for a fact where it's going, either.

Speculation is speculation.
  • #390,612
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:27am Feb 18, 2011 10:27am
Quoting fontu
Possible pA, late posting due connection lost .long taken.fontu
spot on. well done
  • #390,613
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:28am Feb 18, 2011 10:28am
Quoting Redeemed1
I think it was a "slip" to get Portugals attention as ECB wants to "bail" them out ,but Portugal doesn't want the sanctions that come with it. If ECB did raise, PIIGS would be on the truck to the slaughterhouse alot sooner.
This week action and today ECB hike "slip" supports your argument but what if Portugal comes clean this week again ... bears will may have to wait till the hike to slaughter the debt/deficit-ridden countries. I am incline for the second option as FA and TA (daily stopping the downtrend in the making this week) are pointing to that scenario for now.

We'll see.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #390,614
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:29am Feb 18, 2011 10:29am
Quoting FishHead
Probably, but you're not George Soros so I doubt you know for a fact where it's going, either.

Speculation is speculation.
Maybe not, but he is riding the trend. Why fight the market, at least wait for confirmation before shorting Stick to good mm and ride that trend like your favourite steed
  • #390,615
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:29am Feb 18, 2011 10:29am
Quoting cloggie
ECB just announced possible rate hike 3670 is the one to watch.

Close enough for government work, I can live without the last 5 pips, 1630 I am covering. The miraculous tea leaf readers that knew all about the ECB announcement this morning and the WTF's (not mutually exclusive) can have the floor freely again, I won't be here to call them on their BS.

See y'all
  • #390,616
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:31am Feb 18, 2011 10:31am
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #390,617
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:31am Feb 18, 2011 10:31am
Quoting sisse
First, nice to see a futures trader around here and also with a proper charting platform.

From the information and chart you provided it looks kind of...
Thanks for the feedback. I guess this strategy would be hard for some people to trust because the truth is it is very simplistic. I've been trading with BB since I began (which hasn't been more than a year yet for full disclosure lol). They seem to fit my eye and I understand and trust the logic behind them.

As for the 9th...I'm seeing a profitable trade there. Once you get an absolute .25% breach on the 60 minute bar that closed at 11 am EST price only went above a few ticks higher before turning around for a nice ~30 pip profit hitting Target 1. Target 2 wouldn't have been hit though. However I prob wouldn't have taken this trade just because there was no clear area of supply that I can see to the left.

I'm still working on the specifics such as stop limit but 10 pips has been a good rule I've been using. Of course nothing works 100% of the time but I've had some good success with it. Works best during news announcements where extreme moves can happen.

And yes this is the only scalping strategy I use while 60 minutes is the lowest time frame I take trades off of.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #390,618
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:31am Feb 18, 2011 10:31am
150 pips
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  • #390,619
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:31am Feb 18, 2011 10:31am
Quoting sisse
This week action and today ECB hike "slip"

Go back over this afternoon's post, plenty here knew all about the slip before it slipped. Of course they all posted after the fact, but what the heck, give them a bit of credit for creatively taking credit.
  • #390,620
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:31am Feb 18, 2011 10:31am
Quoting cloggie
Close enough for government work, I can live without the last 5 pips, 1630 I am covering. The miraculous tea leaf readers that knew all about the ECB announcement this morning and the WTF's (not mutually exclusive) can have the floor freely again, I won't be here to call them on their BS.

See y'all
lol, we may go even a bit higher at 3710 =SD1
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