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  • #390,581
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:49am Feb 18, 2011 9:49am
Scalped 30 pips out of the EC futures contract which is just about the same as EURUSD for those not familiar with the instrument.

.25% pierce of BB into an area of supply. Very easy scalping system with even more efficiency on 240 minute and daily charts but I like to take them on the 60 minute chart as well. Profit target is Bollinger Band where the .25% pierce occurred (1.3611). Profit target two is 20 EMA. Theory behind trade is that price has gone up so much so fast that an imbalance has occurred and you are looking for the snap back into the bands. Let me know what you guys think.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6E 03-11 (60 Min) 2_18_2011 BB.jpg Size: 117 KB
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #390,582
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:50am Feb 18, 2011 9:50am
Quoting attila
Alright, let me add to the BS here. I have a question for all the fundies guys here.

Can anybody tell me that in reality the Banks did not know about the announcement ahead of time? I find that impossible to believe. Their actions were obvious AHEAD of the news. They drove the price down as much as they could so they can get the most bang for the buck. It's always like that. Just watch what they do BEFORE something happens.

And yes, the final targets are always in the charts. News/announcements are just reasons for the Banks to throw a party....
excellent post. i've found that the market seems to 'know' fundamentals impact ahead of time more often than not. from a quantitative approach fundamental days do not differ significantly from any other day (range considerations aside)... therefore it is safe to assume key players have access to inside information they use to position themselves prior to most news.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #390,583
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:53am Feb 18, 2011 9:53am
Quoting vox dei
excellent post. i've found that the market seems to 'know' fundamentals impact ahead of time more often than not. from a quantitative approach fundamental days do not differ significantly from any other day (range considerations aside)... therefore it is safe to assume key players have access to inside information they use to position themselves prior to most news.

GOOD MORNING
  • #390,584
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:55am Feb 18, 2011 9:55am
hold for short difficult...
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #390,585
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:56am Feb 18, 2011 9:56am
Ok here it is. We have a Harami bearish pattern. Not a perfect Hanging man is the 2nd candle which signals the possible reversal.

However its FRIDAY, and profit taking is in play. STO still not overbought so it could go any direction.

Hanging man is a variation of a dragonfly doji candlestick /medium reliability where we need to see a bullish rally preceding it.

The numbers in red are historical important numbers.
Just something to take a note.

Attached Image
  • #390,586
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:58am Feb 18, 2011 9:58am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=390613

As usdx 1 leg down still to do before a bounce now expecting eu breaks up towards cloggie's line 3667 for one 5th wave to end perhaps .waiting it done .

fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 7 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #390,587
  • Feb 18, 2011 9:59am Feb 18, 2011 9:59am
Quoting cloggie
What? You telling me they knew that the ECB was going to announce a possible rate hike today and never told us? B@st@rds.

I truly adore the guys who come here after the fact saying that they saw the rate hike news coming in their charts all along and are not surprised at all.

You obviously have never worked on a floor when news like this hits or else you would not make such a silly comment.
Well, that depends on what you want to believe. You think every price move is a reaction? Comeon, you should know that price moves for different reasons. I don't have to have worked the floor to know that.
Regardless, it's funny the amount of times DrG has been so 'lucky' with his predictions, whilst the rest of us try to understand market reaction.
  • #390,588
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:00am Feb 18, 2011 10:00am
Quoting PhAnTi'
Attachment

hmm dont gainsay me plz.
sure there are moves before news....but this one was a special... oO
1)The circle large buyers entered (3550). How did the enter without moving price?
There was a Pivot 15pips on top and while they accumulated, large fat wild pigs provided liquidity hoping for the pivot to provide resistance and thus were trapped and good for the market. Same thing also happened at the monthly Pivot on Monday. I've been monitoring 550 since NFP Friday. I think I might have mentioned it yesterday morning. I don't like being trapped, It is never nice. Which is why I always anticipate it- ALWAYS. When unsure, I rather go into scalp mode than be trapped for 50-100pips hoping to make a round turn to BE.

2)The vertical rectangle was not a result of strategic buying, BUT massive stop trigger domino effect and covering.

Just newbie observation thats all.
Enjoy your weekend and come back refreshed on Monday. Do not seek revenge now, for you will get slaughtered for sure.
Take care
  • #390,589
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:00am Feb 18, 2011 10:00am
Quoting Mr Hatch
I was waiting for 3515 to look for the reversal. we speculated about a "surprise" movement today for about 2 weeks now, and at least a couple of people were extremely alert today. then I got hungry, thought that the algos had kicked in and went for lunch. that's when it happened, so I was left out.

so, no intraday lunch for me... just a little snack right at the desk
ouch that sucks big time and wow you were expecting this move for 2 weeks. i only saw it today while watching price action. this move does have a supportive TL going back from 31 dec high to yesterday's low. did your algos use that TL to predict today's scenario?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #390,590
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:01am Feb 18, 2011 10:01am
Quoting redsword11
different brokers, different feeds - also, if you are not trading with MT4 that also makes a difference

that chart is Alpari UK, why not send it to your broker and ask ....... assuming you are not with Alpari UK
really odd... sure it's mt4.
Fontu's earlier post,
FXopen looks like mine.
dukascopy mt4 beta is same w mine
fxdd looks like mine

ITFX looks like 90% yours
activtrades - 90% yours
atc - 90% yours

i was looking at the daily high, you got 3 candles, low, high, low,
i got on all ~ same high, 36445.
  • #390,591
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:02am Feb 18, 2011 10:02am
The banks, or whatever big money/smart money is supposed in anyone's opinion, doesn't have to drive something down to get a better price.

They just have to step away and not buy. Without strong demand price drops. Without strong supply price rises.

As Tom DeMark famously has written in his books - in a rally price doesn't top because there is a lot of shorts being initiated. It drops because there is a lack of buying. Figuratively, not literally "the last buyer has bought".

The same in reverse when a bottom forms because "the last seller has sold".

Attributing it to banks or the Fed or big hedge funds is the easy but often inaccurate picture when looking at price gyrations.
  • #390,592
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:03am Feb 18, 2011 10:03am
Quoting khizer
hold for short difficult...

Khizer,

I saw the trades you post ...
You can't seem to make up your mind.
Stick to your trading plan ....

I don't know about long term ....
but for short term ....
I'm still gonna short this pair to hell ...
Just don't over leverage your accounts

I made pips ... short and long on this pair ...
I don't define top or bottom ...
I just trade based on support and resistance...

I'm up + 25.8% this week
  • #390,593
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:03am Feb 18, 2011 10:03am
don't bother man. you should see my eyes rolling reading his posts. maybe i should add him to my iggy. hmm.... nah, makes for good entertainment.

Quoting ukdaytrader
Well, that depends on what you want to believe. You think every price move is a reaction? Comeon, you should know that price moves for different reasons. I don't have to have worked the floor to know that.
Regardless, it's funny the amount of times DrG has been so 'lucky' with his predictions, whilst the rest of us try to understand market reaction.
  • #390,594
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:05am Feb 18, 2011 10:05am
Quoting SirMcPip
GOOD MORNING
ahah good afternoon to you too and yes what i've said is common knowledge, but i always need numbers to back up even the safest of assumptions lol
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #390,595
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:05am Feb 18, 2011 10:05am
Quoting prezd
really odd... sure it's mt4.
Fontu's earlier post,
FXopen looks like mine.
dukascopy mt4 beta is same w mine
fxdd looks like mine

ITFX looks like 90% yours
activtrades - 90% yours
atc - 90% yours

i was looking at the daily high, you got 3 candles, low, high, low,
i got on all ~ same high, 36445.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tt.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #390,596
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:09am Feb 18, 2011 10:09am
[quote=redsword11;4411344]Attachment [/quote

Wow ! Now thats a wick on a candle ! I looked over all my charts and I dont have anything like that .
  • #390,597
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:10am Feb 18, 2011 10:10am
Quoting zusch
Scalped 30 pips out of the EC futures contract...
First, nice to see a futures trader around here and also with a proper charting platform.

From the information and chart you provided it looks kind of simplistic. BB are useful for some traders (especially for options in daily and above). Sure it make sense "....gone up so much so fast that an imbalance has occurred and you are looking" but its not enough reason IMO for taking a trade if you don't know what is the direction of the market or at least you have a major S/R that you want to fade with the BB breach. Just look at your chart on the 9th that breach made a +/-100 tick drawdown and when it finally came back to your target it was a lost.

In any case, thats is just my random opinion while I have a beer on Friday afternoon so I guess your trading plan is more rounded than that...

Good luck

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #390,598
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:10am Feb 18, 2011 10:10am
Quoting ukdaytrader
You think every price move is a reaction?

No most of them aren't as they are priced in, this one wasn't. The rate hike news came out of the blue as Lorenzo let it slip. This was not a ECB "sanctioned" release or else we would have seen a 300 pip run.
  • #390,599
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:12am Feb 18, 2011 10:12am
Apparently I'm not alone in thinking this is pair is going to bomb pretty soon. This whole uptrend has felt odd to me for a while now, and these surges look like an obvious markup.

I'm guessing it's going to climb a bit more and drop like a rock once it's finally overbought on 1H, which could be as soon as Monday.
  • #390,600
  • Feb 18, 2011 10:15am Feb 18, 2011 10:15am
Quoting SunTrader
The banks, or whatever big money/smart money is supposed in anyone's opinion, doesn't have to drive something down to get a better price.

They just have to step away and not buy. Without strong demand price drops. Without strong supply price rises.

As Tom DeMark famously has written in his books - in a rally price doesn't top because there is a lot of shorts being initiated. It drops because there is a lack of buying. Figuratively, not literally "the last buyer has bought".

The same in reverse when a bottom forms because "the last seller...
I would have to partially disagree.

The answers to those questions are in classical economic theory; Smith, Hayek, etc. They are not in technical analysis and not from individuals who make a 'business' out of such 'proprietary' information.

Markets have gotten more complex. Intra-day arbitrage of long-term strategies is consistently happening in the markets. A little known fact that a lot of new traders ignore is the fact that market orders (today's MARKET order trades) eat through limit orders. The limit orders may be patterned in various complex ways. Once you see what is going on; it's easy to see that both sides win. Bull and bear work together, although majority bias is that they don't.
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