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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,441
  • Feb 17, 2011 8:22am Feb 17, 2011 8:22am
Quoting fosking
SL hit -20. I thought it was going to hold, but it didn't lol.
Next buy will be at 0.9350 to parity lol
I like it
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,442
  • Feb 17, 2011 9:37am Feb 17, 2011 9:37am
Got in at the break of the monthly R1.
Looking for 100 pips. SL just moved to BE.

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy3.png Size: 171 KB
  • #22,443
  • Feb 17, 2011 3:11pm Feb 17, 2011 3:11pm
Looking to the news of today (february 17th), with CPI and Philly Fed better (a multi year high), I expected UJ to turn higher.
However it went the opposite way.

Can anyone of you find a good reason for that?
Or do you guys agree that the news was bad for UJ and sent it down?
  • #22,444
  • Feb 17, 2011 3:14pm Feb 17, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting edja00
Looking to the news of today (february 17th), with CPI and Philly Fed better (a multi year high), I expected UJ to turn higher.
However it went the opposite way.

Can anyone of you find a good reason for that?
Or do you guys agree that the news was bad for UJ and sent it down?
This is from RANsquawk.

USD/JPY – The pair finished the session lower amid renewed geopolitical tensions on the back of fresh reports that Iranian warships are to pass through the Suez Canal. The risk aversion trade that followed saw the pair fall to a low 83.00 region, however touted bids at 83.15 prevented further decline. Given that the USD has struggled to post gains on the back of what largely has been decent round of economic data indicates that risks remain tilted to the downside for the pair. In terms of technical levels, supports are seen at 83.09/00 and then at 82.54. On the other hand, resistance levels are seen at 83.48/69 and then at 84.13.
  • #22,445
  • Feb 17, 2011 3:27pm Feb 17, 2011 3:27pm
That clears things up a bit !
Thanks for the info.
  • #22,446
  • Feb 17, 2011 3:38pm Feb 17, 2011 3:38pm
Quoting edja00
That clears things up a bit !
Thanks for the info.
No worries my friend.

USD/JPY is heavily dictated by the USD so it's good to keep an eye on how the USDX is performing.
The USD/JPY started taking a dive at the same time the Dollar did at around 13.00 CET.
There is becoming increasing pressure now on the Dollar as it's coming down to the purple support area with a nice probability of breaking it.
If it does, then the USD/JPY pair will more than likely move lower with it.
Obviously, this isn't always the case as the USD is only one half of the pair lol.

The chart below is the USDX from the start of Thursdays session.

M1 USDX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy4.png Size: 141 KB
  • #22,447
  • Feb 17, 2011 3:40pm Feb 17, 2011 3:40pm
Quoting fosking
This is from RANsquawk.

USD/JPY – The pair finished the session lower amid renewed geopolitical tensions on the back of fresh reports that Iranian warships are to pass through the Suez Canal. The risk aversion trade that followed saw the pair fall to a low 83.00 region, however touted bids at 83.15 prevented further decline. Given that the USD has struggled to post gains on the back of what largely has been decent round of economic data indicates that risks remain tilted to the downside for the pair. In terms of technical levels, supports...

I really like to see usdjpy has some correction. I will look into long it..
S&P index also shows rising wedge with negative divergence.

Attachment
  • #22,448
  • Feb 18, 2011 1:17am Feb 18, 2011 1:17am
The Yen is strengthening slightly across the board this morning, so I will keep an eye on the USDX which has also found some bids in the last hour and coming up to resistance at 78.05.
We touched the Daily Pivot twice this morning and was rejected on the second attempt of breaking it which adds to the bearish momentum.
I have strong Intraday support at around yesterdays low with stops below.

M5 WSF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy1.png Size: 181 KB


USDX M5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd1.png Size: 81 KB
  • #22,449
  • Feb 18, 2011 2:50am Feb 18, 2011 2:50am
USDX finding some solid bids now. Keeping an eye on the white resistance line at 78.10.

M15 USDX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd2.png Size: 63 KB
  • #22,450
  • Feb 18, 2011 2:58am Feb 18, 2011 2:58am
Quoting fosking
USDX finding some solid bids now. Keeping an eye on the white resistance line at 78.10.
Yes, I've been watching that too.....UJ has the DP hurdle to get over as well......if USDX gets past it's resistance....UJ will follow.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,451
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:19am Feb 18, 2011 4:19am
Quoting fosking
USDX finding some solid bids now. Keeping an eye on the white resistance line at 78.10.

M15 USDX
Attachment
Resistance broken.
Have taken a small long on USD/JPY. May be my last trade of the week.

M15 USDX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd3.png Size: 104 KB


M5 WSF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy2.png Size: 148 KB
  • #22,452
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:41am Feb 18, 2011 4:41am
Seeing as we are back inside the pennent/wedge (whatever), I won't enter until we break out. I took a small long on the swissy a while back, but cut it loose at +5
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 80 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,453
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:46am Feb 18, 2011 4:46am
Quoting fosking
No worries my friend.

USD/JPY is heavily dictated by the USD so it's good to keep an eye on how the USDX is performing.
The USD/JPY started taking a dive at the same time the Dollar did at around 13.00 CET.
There is becoming increasing pressure now on the Dollar as it's coming down to the purple support area with a nice probability of breaking it.
If it does, then the USD/JPY pair will more than likely move lower with it.
Obviously, this isn't always the case as the USD is only one half of the pair lol.

The chart...
I'd argue differently.... as of lately its been tracking A/U in an extremely tight correlation. E/U would move -ve 20+ pips, no budge . As soon as A/U starts moving, it begins to do its thing. Interesting enough the A/U is a relatively small part of the USDX so this means some weird stuff is going on.

Most likely greedy Japanese "Investors" trying to get rich off the carry trade again.
  • #22,454
  • Feb 18, 2011 4:51am Feb 18, 2011 4:51am
I've just let mine go for -6.
Thought we would have a nice break back above the Monthly R1, but was false (so far).
Will keep my pc on just incase anything crops up, but this late in the week I'm not sure. Possibly a break of yesterdays low, but again, it could be limited.

I suppose I'm just guessing now so will sit on my hands lol best thing.
  • #22,455
  • Feb 18, 2011 5:03am Feb 18, 2011 5:03am
Quoting fosking
I've just let mine go for -6.
Thought we would have a nice break back above the Monthly R1, but was false (so far).
Will keep my pc on just incase anything crops up, but this late in the week I'm not sure. Possibly a break of yesterdays low, but again, it could be limited.

I suppose I'm just guessing now so will sit on my hands lol best thing.
Yep, I'm of the same mind. The short term scalpers with nimble fingers are probably loving this, but not me! I'll watch for a while, but like you, I'm guessing, so my trading might be finished for the week.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,456
  • Feb 18, 2011 5:30am Feb 18, 2011 5:30am
Quoting warwick
i'd argue differently....
As you say, the AUD/USD has been beautifully correlated with USD/JPY, as seen on the chart below.
Perhaps I should have been more clear on my other post with charts.

The first chart is the day so far on the M1 time frame (the chart I should have attached with said post).
The second is the H4 (one of my favorite time frames which I trade heavily).

Both charts show a clear correlation between the USD/JPY and the USDX.
To dismiss the USDX as not having influence over this pair reduces knowledge of why the pair is moving.
I also stated that the JPY has influence as well, as the USD is just one half of the pair.
This of course subtracts from the fact that the USDX is the sole reason for price to move in USD/JPY.


AUD/USD USD/JPY WSF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy3.png Size: 213 KB


M1 Day so far
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy4.png Size: 118 KB


H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy5.png Size: 131 KB
  • #22,457
  • Feb 18, 2011 6:03pm Feb 18, 2011 6:03pm
closing price? Anyone knows for sure?
  • #22,458
  • Feb 21, 2011 5:49am Feb 21, 2011 5:49am
Good morning,

Trying a long again @ 83.17 based on presumed botoming of USDX:

H5:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0001.png Size: 40 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,459
  • Feb 21, 2011 6:24am Feb 21, 2011 6:24am
Quoting USD-Bear
Good morning,

Trying a long again @ 83.17 based on presumed botoming of USDX:

H5:
Attachment


I'm with you based on the M15 USDX.
Just keeping an eye on the purple resistance.

USDX M15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jpy1.png Size: 118 KB
  • #22,460
  • Feb 21, 2011 6:35am Feb 21, 2011 6:35am
Quoting fosking


I'm with you based on the M15 USDX.
Just keeping an eye on the purple resistance.

USDX M15
Attachment
Thanks fos I will
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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