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Sonic R. System

  • #17,561
  • Feb 15, 2011 11:55am Feb 15, 2011 11:55am
Market Comment, and GU:

Well, today turns out to be another of those days we waited for something to happen, and .............waited. Maybe the good in this is that at times like this, when we think nothing is happening, actually a lot is happening. It is times like this that Big Money works their positions. They get more ready for the next big move, but without making any waves (Yes, a pun on the SonicR WAVE!). It is just part of their "Non-disclosure Clause".

Regarding GU, the move up was a surprise, but maybe it shouldn't have been. With USD and GBP releases that were coming up, and more High Impact GBP releases tomorrow, maybe it should have been a "given" that the PPMs would "top it off" and keep it up to have a better price range to prepare for the inevitable that we have been waitng for. Maybe the "Grand Send Off" will happen during the traditional more active part of the trading week.

On the attached H4, we can see that the move up today restored PA to the FR 50% area, and added some balance to the downwards sloping channel that the price has been in since making its high. And, if you all will permit some more speculation, this sudden PA action up has the look of PPMs making a last dash for the high ground to resume shorting in advance of a truly grand move down. And now tomorrow's GBP High Impact releases might be the trigger.
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  • #17,562
  • Feb 15, 2011 12:23pm Feb 15, 2011 12:23pm
Quoting RonaldinhoKuban
Hi all!
This target is rather to tomorrow than today
Yes, what you suggest could happen. But there is still evidence supporting the continuation of the new H4 down trend.

The attached H4 chart shows PA fell briefly down out of its new range that starts the new down trend. And while PA has come back up, it has mostly the appearance of coming back up to test the S&R area (red line). And the explanation of such "tests" of S&R or of TLs is that the PPMs have reversed price only to give them price advantage in adding more positions for a later continuation in the previous direction.

The attached M15 shows that the London session trading today established a new upper range, possibly for the price jockeying necessary for the PPMs to close longs and add shorts without the price moving to any such extend as to reveal what they are doing. In any case, observe that this area also has the flavor of a downwards sloping channel, and with the last move up reviving PA only to the FR 50% area....briefly. And, the Dragon remains, for the most part, angled down. Even the Trend looks to be starting to roll over ever so slightly.

Of course, all this does not mean that somewhere, at some time, some PPM outfit won't spike PA upwards. It could happen. But if it does, it might not be far enough or last long enough to risk a long entry.

I guess "Caution" would be a good "modus operandi" on this pair prior to the next London session.
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  • #17,563
  • Feb 15, 2011 12:36pm Feb 15, 2011 12:36pm
Quoting msmarple
Hello TAH and all Sonicers,

could this be a sign of a classic wave building up ? I just noticed the volume on leg 2 was OK....

I am still a bit worried though about the wick of this spike down. If we experience another drop just to pick price up again, then my buy strategy might get burned.

Just practising......many thanks from a daily reader and student !

Best regards,


Michael
Hi Michael,

From the chart you posted it appears you are not using the latest upgrade. Sonic has included a link to it in his first post of the thread. In any case, the vLines on your chart appear one hour too soon. To correct this you need to add an hour to the "....GMT..." input in the External Inputs window. I have included below your chart and a correct chart to guide you.
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  • #17,564
  • Edited 2:22pm Feb 15, 2011 1:44pm | Edited 2:22pm
Reading Volume, With UCad As An Example:

In the attached chart part of the volume study is boxed, covering the period today from the start of euro trading until the close of the London session. We see as the PPMs drove the price down, trading increased. This is heavier shorting activity by the PPMs as they achieve lower levels, satisfying the imbalance in long orders over short orders. Then, for awhile at the lows, trading continued at a slower pace. This is the closing of the shorts that were required to move the price down, and the ongoing acquisition of the more desired long positions. Finally, trading levels spiked and the price rose. This was the culmination of gathering in longs at the bottom....eventually it came to pass that no more were to be had down there. Therefore, the PPMs had to continue their acquistion of long positions at higher prices. As they all raced to complete their buying, trading levels spiked and so did the price.

The point is, we see a lot more activity on the buy side (going back up) than on the sell side (the move down to the levels where serious buying started). The conclusion is, this pair is now under accumulation of long side positions.

WARNING: Speculation.
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  • #17,565
  • Edited 2:41pm Feb 15, 2011 2:28pm | Edited 2:41pm
Reading Volume, Example EJ:

In the M15 chart the gray rectangle is for all PA after yesterday's high was exceeded. The black rectangle in the volume study shows the highest trading levels occurred once PA had successfully been pumped over the high of the previous day.

Conclusion: This pair is under accumulation of short positions.

In the H4 chart we see nothing contradicting the conclusion. The price pump was just a repeat of before, to the FR 79% area......just one more successful return to the high ground to resume shorting. And the longer a substantial move down is delayed, the larger it will be when it comes.

WARNING: Speculation.
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  • #17,566
  • Feb 15, 2011 6:29pm Feb 15, 2011 6:29pm
Quoting traderathome
Reading Volume, Example EJ:

In the M15 chart the gray rectangle is for all PA after yesterday's high was exceeded. The black rectangle in the volume study shows the highest trading levels occurred once PA had successfully been pumped over the high of the previous day.

Conclusion: This pair is under accumulation of short positions.

In the H4 chart we see nothing contradicting the conclusion. The price pump was just a repeat of before, to the FR 79% area......just one more successful return to the high ground to resume shorting. And the longer...
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to TAH: thank u very much for ya prof. expl.

greets enigma4x
enjoy my life ... and ride the waves - all what I do
  • #17,567
  • Feb 15, 2011 9:37pm Feb 15, 2011 9:37pm
GU:

I have added to my short trade on this swing high at 1.6162, making my EP average to be 1.6118. This might go higher, but technically it looks like a logical place to make an addition.
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  • #17,568
  • Feb 15, 2011 9:51pm Feb 15, 2011 9:51pm
UCad:

M15 - asian session trading amounts to a very clear Bull Flag, "Come on, Bears, short it! We Bulls want to take the long side of your short trades! See it going down? Short it before you miss out!"
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  • #17,569
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:21pm Feb 15, 2011 10:21pm
EJ:

Remaining Bearish on this one, I see new reason to be so. Just look at the number of times PA has been up in the highs. And look at the PA formations up there. Finally, look at the PV study (Price/Volume study).....very concentrated and increasing volume on numerous upward moves. BUT, the price has never gone anywhere! Why?

The price has not made a breakout upwards because all the increasing volume on moves up is not for that purpose! It is for the purpose of attracting long buyers into the market, and as they come in and open long positions they create liquidity, and Big Money is able to get more short orders filled!

Based upon the M30 and H4, as I see it, the up and down swings are enabling Big Money to build their short positions without driving the price lower before they are ready for it to go lower.

WARNING: Speculation.
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  • #17,570
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:31pm Feb 15, 2011 10:31pm
Hi Traderathome,

Do you think EU is forming a bullflag on 4H chart? or am i just over analysing??

Thanks
Eric
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  • #17,571
  • Edited 10:52pm Feb 15, 2011 10:40pm | Edited 10:52pm
Quoting noobguy
Hi Traderathome,

Do you think EU is forming a bullflag on 4H chart? or am i just over analysing??

Thanks
Eric
It looks like the swings are too wide, and more like an honest to goodness downward sloping channel......really nice WAVES down.
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  • #17,572
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:53pm Feb 15, 2011 10:53pm
Quoting traderathome
It looks like the swings are too wide, and more like an honest to goodness downward sloping channel......really nice WAVES down.
Thanks for the quick reply ! I took a short at the top of the channel hoping to take profit between s1 and s2 area..
saw your post about Ucad forming bullflag and am not too familiar with flags,pennants.etc

best regards.
  • #17,573
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:56pm Feb 15, 2011 10:56pm
Quoting noobguy
Thanks for the quick reply ! I took a short at the top of the channel hoping to take profit between s1 and s2 area..
saw your post about Ucad forming bullflag and am not too familiar with flags,pennants.etc

best regards.
....s1? ....s2?
  • #17,574
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:57pm Feb 15, 2011 10:57pm
btw TAH, i really appreciate all your posts i'm slowly learning from your posts of the pairs, but i don't know how you can handle so many pairs...i'm just tryin to focus on EU then i'll hopefully be able to tackle more than one pair.

Thanks
  • #17,575
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:58pm Feb 15, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting traderathome
....s1? ....s2?
yea DS1=1.3448 and DS2=1.3410
  • #17,576
  • Feb 15, 2011 11:05pm Feb 15, 2011 11:05pm
AU:

This is the opposite of UCad. Here we have a Bear Flag on M15....the Bears coaxing in longs to create more liquidity so the Bears can get their short orders filled.

Definately something is up with the upcoming USD High Impact release, because all USD pairs are having their prices run "anti-dollar" beforehand. This smells like sandbagging for a "pro-dollar" move later. The PV study clearly shows the highest trading levels occurring after the price is already substantially raised. This would be increased shorting at the highs.

WARNING: Speculation.
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  • #17,577
  • Feb 15, 2011 11:07pm Feb 15, 2011 11:07pm
hmmm...
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  • #17,578
  • Feb 15, 2011 11:13pm Feb 15, 2011 11:13pm
Quoting noobguy
yea DS1=1.3448 and DS2=1.3410
Ok, pivot levels using Daily formula....understand now. This is a case where if you posted a clearly annotated chart picture, it would be worth a thousand words.....

....well, maybe not worth that much, but it would certainly make your post more valuable.....now, and for readers in the future. As it is, it is just words that are practically meaningless without an annotated chart to show exactly what you are referring to.
  • #17,579
  • Edited 11:43pm Feb 15, 2011 11:23pm | Edited 11:43pm
Quoting cardinale
hmmm...
UJ:

Yes, I see what you are getting at, cardinale. But there is a USD High Impact release coming later. And USD pairs seem to be having their prices moved beforehand in an "anti-dollar" direction, which smells like sandbagging for "pro-dollar" moves later.

You are suggesting this might drop. It might just be what is happening to other USD pairs right now.

BTW, your indys seem to be set for "White" charts, not "Black" charts. If you are using the latest upgrade, the indys allow you to select in the External Inputs window, the proper colors for each indicator to display by you selecting either for white or black charts. My 1st pic is an example of selecting for a black chart. The next upgrade will have an even cleaner look (2nd pic).
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  • #17,580
  • Feb 15, 2011 11:32pm Feb 15, 2011 11:32pm
for the information about correcting the chart colors. I will fix.

and after posting the chart I noticed that despite the wave this short would be counter to all the evidence you present above suggesting USD long later...and it's early hours yet.
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