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Trade What You See - Almost Naked Trading

  • #11,181
  • Feb 15, 2011 10:34am Feb 15, 2011 10:34am
LG (or anyone else), have you heard of a program called Forex Dominator 1.5 by Monster Trading Systems?
  • #11,182
  • Feb 15, 2011 11:33am Feb 15, 2011 11:33am
Quoting lawgirl21
I am in this one..may have come late to the party.
Hi LG,

As always, thanks for all the good trading tips/breakdowns recently. I am still struggling with setup/trigger on BO trades. I see quite a few trades posted here where it’s breaking out to one direction to the point where I feel it’s a BO, only to reverse and breakout the other way.

Can you provide a little clarification on what convinces you a breakout is legit and it’s a good time to enter? I see that you revised your first post, and if I’m understanding correctly you need to watch the 4h and 1h candles, but ignore daily and weekly candles. Do you also watch 15m candles? When you have a minute would you mind explaining exactly what you look for when looking at the ‘quality’ of the candles?

Post #11171 is a great example of the type of Breakout I’m struggling with. On the 3rd green candle that is breaking north of the BO Box I see myself going long. I then see myself getting Stopped out at the other side of the BO Box. negative pips. I then would watch price shoot back up the next hour to a new high, so I’d be looking for a long entry again. The next candle starts out as a nice looking green candle where I could see myself going long again. Again, it reversed and my stop would have been hit. More negative pips. By now I’d probably have given up on this pair, when there is finally a good looking BO.

I totally understand how to trade the TT 4h trades, but am definitely struggling with these BO trades. However, the BO trades are more enticing to me due to my geographic location and availability for trading. Thanks in advance for any clarification you can provide!
Enter Signature
  • #11,183
  • Feb 15, 2011 1:54pm Feb 15, 2011 1:54pm
Quoting Fitness09
LG (or anyone else), have you heard of a program called Forex Dominator 1.5 by Monster Trading Systems?
No, I haven't heard of it. What is it?
  • #11,184
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:01pm Feb 15, 2011 2:01pm
Quoting CrucialCraig
Hi LG,

As always, thanks for all the good trading tips/breakdowns recently. I am still struggling with setup/trigger on BO trades. I see quite a few trades posted here where it’s breaking out to one direction to the point where I feel it’s a BO, only to reverse and breakout the other way.

[size=3][font=Calibri]Can you provide a little clarification on what convinces you a breakout is legit and it’s a good time to enter? I see that you revised your first post, and if I’m...
I did revise page 1 for break out trades, but totally ignoring the weekly, daily is not exactly what I meant, as it is always better to have directional confirmation on all TFs if possible. It is not always or even often possible..especially early in the trading week.

I am beginning to believe that BO trades need to be watched. That is one reason I am narrowing my trading pairs. Since before the holidays the market has been particularly unpredictable and has been doing those "about faces" we have talked about. Watching only a few pairs also lets us find the wonderful channel trades that have been going on.

I will look at post #11171 and see what I see. Anyone else..please join in with your analysis and comments.
  • #11,185
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:03pm Feb 15, 2011 2:03pm
Quoting fdoehpp
bad trade on EU.. close BE+1.
BE +1 is considered a winning trade. There will be many other better trades.
  • #11,186
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:15pm Feb 15, 2011 2:15pm
Quoting lawgirl21
No, I haven't heard of it. What is it?
It's an automated trading program that tracks what the big banks, hedge funds, and major traders are doing, and tries to piggy back. It is a pretty expensive system, and then has a monthly fee.
  • #11,187
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:19pm Feb 15, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting Fitness09
It's an automated trading program that tracks what the big banks, hedge funds, and major traders are doing, and tries to piggy back. It is a pretty expensive system, and then has a monthly fee.
We don't need it.
  • #11,188
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:33pm Feb 15, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting CrucialCraig
Hi LG,

As always, thanks for all the good trading tips/breakdowns recently. I am still struggling with setup/trigger on BO trades. I see quite a few trades posted here where it’s breaking out to one direction to the point where I feel it’s a BO, only to reverse and breakout the other way.

[size=3][font=Calibri]Can you provide a little clarification on what convinces you a breakout is legit and it’s a good time to enter? I see that you revised your first post, and if I’m...
I see exactly what you are talking about. Most times watching the M15 chart will keep us out of trouble, but I may have entered long there too on that H1 green candle.

However watching from the H1 chart, the next red candle would have told us something..fast. Exit a long position on that red candle. Then either ride the next 3 red candles down (channel trade) for 15-20 pips or more conservatively, stay out until PA is more decisive.

The next long green candle (another channel trade) would give us another 15-30 pips. Then the real ride starts. At first it looks like just a channel trade, but turns into a true BO trade. That move is good for around 60 pips.

I did not catch any of this..mind you and hindsight is everything. But watching just that pair.checking it every candle change would have been lots of fun and very profitable.

I am convinced that watching..watching..watching is the key to this current market.
  • #11,189
  • Feb 15, 2011 2:34pm Feb 15, 2011 2:34pm
chart in discussion above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,190
  • Edited 5:37pm Feb 15, 2011 2:51pm | Edited 5:37pm
CC and/or everyone if you are there..let's look at this BO trade and break it down.
Q: When is the first time we would have considered getting in a trade here?
A: (marked with arrow on the H1 chart)
Q: Would we have stayed in that long trade?
A: No, we would have exited on the next H1 red candle.
Q: Then what?
A: Watch PA to see if this is going to be a potential channel trade..or just watch PA. It takes about 3 hours to determine what this pair is going to do. Then it turns into a beautiful BO trade with a pullback then continuation..ZC trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4x.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #11,191
  • Feb 15, 2011 3:02pm Feb 15, 2011 3:02pm
Quoting lawgirl21
CC and/or everyone if you are there..let's look at this BO trade and break it down.
Q: When is the first time we would have considered getting a trade here?
A: (marked with arrow on the H1 chart)
Q: Would we have stayed in that long trade?
A: No, we would have exited on the next H1 red candle.
Q: Then what?
A: Watch PA to see if this is going to be a potential channel trade..or just watch PA. It takes about 3 hours to determine what this pair is going to do. Then it turns into a beautiful BO trade with a pullback then continuation..ZC trade
Thanks for the breakdown.
  • #11,192
  • Feb 15, 2011 3:10pm Feb 15, 2011 3:10pm
If entry was on the 08:15 candle (1st green candle above the BO line) would you have exited on the next m15 candle (which is red?) or would you have waited for the 2nd red candle?

Thanks for taking time to detail this set up
  • #11,193
  • Feb 15, 2011 3:14pm Feb 15, 2011 3:14pm
LG! Thank you so much for your help and efforts. I've been following your posts for almost 6 weeks, you're a brilliant trader and teacher.
  • #11,194
  • Feb 15, 2011 3:28pm Feb 15, 2011 3:28pm
Thanks a lot LG.
Enter Signature
  • #11,195
  • Feb 15, 2011 3:28pm Feb 15, 2011 3:28pm
Hi LG, in the situation like that personally me I would of wait for the first retreacment and then enter after at the second or third 15 minute bullish candle close out of the box.
Please point me to the direction if I am wrong.

Thank you.
evasz
Blessed are they who maintain justice, who constantly do what is right.
  • #11,196
  • Feb 15, 2011 5:23pm Feb 15, 2011 5:23pm
Potential 3-tap on H4 long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad h4.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #11,197
  • Edited 7:31pm Feb 15, 2011 5:31pm | Edited 7:31pm
Hey all,

Some people on this thread have mentioned that they are limiting the pairs they trade… I definitely could see this being beneficial when trading Breakouts, since all pairs will eventually Breakout… However, what about for 4H TT trades? Since they are much less common, are we hurting ourselves by limiting the pairs we look at for these types of trades to only a few pairs?

Or maybe we should limit ourselves some, but not to as few as 3-4 pairs; maybe to the pairs that are traded in higher volume?

Such as EURUSD/USDJPY/GPBUSD/USDCHF/AUDUSD/EURJPY/ USDCAD/EURGBP/GBPJPY/ EURCHF/NZDUSD? (ranked from most traded to least traded from what I could find)

My belief is that the more traded a pair is, the more likely it is to follow normal market patterns/less eratic movements. Taking this assumption into account, these pairs should perform better over a long period of times to a technical strategy (such as LG's).

Thoughts?
Enter Signature
  • #11,198
  • Feb 15, 2011 8:43pm Feb 15, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Thanks for pointing that out to me....

SWEET...thanks for getting this together for me...definitely changes the landscape of the set-up
  • #11,199
  • Feb 15, 2011 9:01pm Feb 15, 2011 9:01pm
Quoting evasz
Hi LG, in the situation like that personally me I would of wait for the first retreacment and then enter after at the second or third 15 minute bullish candle close out of the box.
Please point me to the direction if I am wrong.

Thank you.
evasz
You are not wrong. Each trader needs to make those decisions for themselves.
  • #11,200
  • Feb 15, 2011 9:04pm Feb 15, 2011 9:04pm
This pair has been very erratic..so be careful.
Attached Image
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