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  • #385,801
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:22am Feb 14, 2011 12:22am
Quoting PunjabiSher
3546 is giving a tough time to eurusd
not a good week for euro bulls

we should see a lot of tanking this week.

i will prefer to sell tops
  • #385,802
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:22am Feb 14, 2011 12:22am
Quoting PunjabiSher
3546 is giving a tough time to eurusd
got my short in at 3547.
Keep It Simple Stupid
  • #385,803
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:23am Feb 14, 2011 12:23am
Asalamu Alikum (only for Muslims)
N Good Morning to All

Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #385,804
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:25am Feb 14, 2011 12:25am
Quoting PunjabiSher
not a good week for euro bulls

we should see a lot of tanking this week.

i will prefer to sell tops
lol. let's see.
  • #385,805
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:25am Feb 14, 2011 12:25am
Quoting PriceVolume
I've often wondered if generating a random walk probability distribution, and then only trading movements that departed from the random walk distribution would have merit. I've never taken the time to experiment with this....
Didnt that coinflip thread explore that as well, here in FF...
  • #385,806
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:27am Feb 14, 2011 12:27am
Quoting khizer
Asalamu Alikum (only for Muslims)
N Good Morning to All

Alikum Assalam (Just for khizer)
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #385,807
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:28am Feb 14, 2011 12:28am
  •  Rgkc
  • | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Never stop learning about forex! | 419 Posts
Good morning...
Studing..............
  • #385,808
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:28am Feb 14, 2011 12:28am
Quoting Alastair
got my short in at 3547.
KISS is the right term but make sure you dont fall into the DNMITSS
  • #385,809
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:29am Feb 14, 2011 12:29am
Quoting Larseg
Didnt that coinflip thread explore that as well, here in FF...
No idea. I've never really spent time on it....wasn't that thread more about Ronald Raygun's question as to applying an ATR-based methodology for money management?
  • #385,810
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:29am Feb 14, 2011 12:29am
Quoting saninvestor
Alikum Assalam (Just for khizer)
Where are you guys from, Egypt?
  • #385,811
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:32am Feb 14, 2011 12:32am
Quoting khizer
Asalamu Alikum (only for Muslims)
N Good Morning to All

Walikum as salam Khizer , wish all well .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #385,812
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:32am Feb 14, 2011 12:32am
Quoting PriceVolume
I've often wondered if generating a random walk probability distribution, and then only trading movements that departed from the random walk distribution would have merit. I've never taken the time to experiment with this....
No, it doesn't really. It's the academic definition of martingale: the expectation stays the same regardless.

What Hurst showed, in effect, is that there are, in the real world with external forces that change the state, what the academics now call sub- and super- martingales, where you have positive and negative expectation.

For markets, the sub- ranges (positive expectation) are the high freq and long trends, and the super- ranges are the mid frequency.

By the way, a good thread that has a lot of this discussion (a lot of pedantic signal processing blah-blah, but some really good stuff as well) is the early part of the Optimized Trend Trading thread is Discussions. The original poster, it turned out, was actually an Irish ex-professor with a background in cryptography who was setting up to get investors, but he got outed. Even that was kind of fun to read!
  • #385,813
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:34am Feb 14, 2011 12:34am
Quoting Larseg
Where are you guys from, Egypt?
Don't know about khizer
I'm not. We are 32years forward to Egypt!!
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #385,814
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:35am Feb 14, 2011 12:35am
Quoting PriceVolume
No idea. I've never really spent time on it....wasn't that thread more about Ronald Raygun's question as to applying an ATR-based methodology for money management?
Not sure, I spent some time reading it a year ago as I found Forex very hard and wanted to explore it further.

Now I reckon I can make money with a coinflip though, just need to tweak the money management rules and TF a bit

What did you mean with random walk and out of the ordinary walks... how would you do this? Are you thinking, 10 heads on a row then go head again?
  • #385,815
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:36am Feb 14, 2011 12:36am
Quoting Larseg
KISS is the right term but make sure you dont fall into the DNMITSS

???
Keep It Simple Stupid
  • #385,816
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:36am Feb 14, 2011 12:36am
Quoting saninvestor
Don't know about khizer
I'm not. We are 32years forward to Egypt!!
Good, cant believe the things I see in the news these days...
  • #385,817
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:38am Feb 14, 2011 12:38am
Quoting Alastair
???
Do not make it to simple stupid,

just made it up, now you can pass it on or sell it. Ill take 10% then you get 10%, the rest is GST..

Happydays
  • #385,818
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:42am Feb 14, 2011 12:42am
3550-3500
Can someone please teach me how to use MAs properly before I start a thread about "Why MAs don't work", Like that guy who started a thread about Trendlines not working for him even though he had stats of them working 70% of the time and then killed it at end by saying he does use Trendlines after all. MAs are a tool and just like trendlines, they show us something that is hard to grasp without them (Time+Speed=Slope). They are not a substitute of price itself.

Use it... Don't use...use it ...don't use it...
Price...Tool...Price...Tool...
I use 'em, just as I use trendlines and they do work, provided yo use them properly
  • #385,819
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:42am Feb 14, 2011 12:42am
Quoting aarontdang
Anyone see AUD/USD as bearish ????
Downtrend???? Going South???? hehee

i was short over the whole week from 1.0119 on aud/usd, took a profit [email protected] when bounced from 9984 today.

again taken a short taken at 1.0054, upon hint of completion of ABCD correction, price still hovering at the same level expecting to go further south in 5 waves on 1 hour. lets see.
  • #385,820
  • Feb 14, 2011 12:42am Feb 14, 2011 12:42am
Quoting Larseg
Not sure, I spent some time reading it a year ago as I found Forex very hard and wanted to explore it further.

Now I reckon I can make money with a coinflip though, just need to tweak the money management rules and TF a bit

What did you mean with random walk and out of the ordinary walks... how would you do this? Are you thinking, 10 heads on a row then go head again?
No, I'm thinking more of a modified random walk that isn't quite random...in other words, some limitations to the distribution as to, say, atr or such. Although, odds are you would do just as well with paying attention to significant momentum breakouts. Another thing that fascinates me is Parrondo's Paradox....though again, I find good ole support and resistance yields are certainly preferable...
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