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  • #385,441
  • Edited 7:36am Feb 13, 2011 7:21am | Edited 7:36am
Anyone know how to calculate Rollover from FXCM???

100K BRoll paid only +$1.20 (BRoll rate from them + .21)
100K SRoll Paid - $13.50 (SRoll rate from them - .43)

I just don't get ... doesn't make sense @ all????





EUR/USD100,000 2/9/11 12:29 PM 1.37128 Mkt
2/9/11 7:42 PM 1.371280.000.00-13.500.00 -13.50
Mkt
  • #385,442
  • Feb 13, 2011 7:43am Feb 13, 2011 7:43am
Quoting malcolmb14
all I know is that those bars marked are not selling ..

gap down in asia Monday even more lovely.

GU watch that puppy rip up

Attachment


Hi Malcolmb,

I do not get your logic lately. I have issues with volume at Forex. But even when we assume, that we can talk about volume when in-fact we talk more about frequency, I can not understand that you try to make the point by stating, that volume on a down bar means buying (or better: buying pressure). In-fact, dropping prices at high volume means, that there are more sellers (oversupply leads to dropping prices). If the demand would outpace the supply the bid would go up, pip for pip.

Forelast Friday we had only 7% USD bulls, this Friday we have around 15% USD bulls.

When everyone and his dog was bearish on USD whom do you expect to sell USD more. At those extreme sentiment levels people are fully invested in their believe-system. At 7% USD bulls or 93% bears there was literally no one left to sell USD.
  • #385,443
  • Edited 8:25am Feb 13, 2011 7:51am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting Larseg
Hi Fontu, nice selloff in the weekly I see.... This is how I look at it longer term... days-weeks...

First i think we will have a bull break up penetrating 1.3600 then slowly fade down before falling down below 1.3500...

I believe its going down mainly because a double bottom almost never works out, and if it does, it works because it becomes a triple bottom...

So playing it safer would be sell 1.3450 and buy 1.3650.... 200 pip SL on each
Possible over 3600 only when end abc correction or truncated 5th wave of wave 3 , apparently not seems so but possible price rejected temporarily here & go up for wave 2 again towards 50% fib 3620 & 61.8% 3648/all pullback again levels and also no such news to break this level & hold 3505 Monday I see .wrong diamond tried work at wrong day & wrongs news effects , so abortion temporarily & workon later , still more days work in the week.
Otherwise not to break 3578/82-90 anyway/new limit up though now 3571 ,if any the above suspecious may be going effect.

from higher tf likely c or most probably 5th of C or impulse 1 /a down as a whole end at down 3505 before pullback as thought earlier.
anyway money may not be given easily to traders as thought & so it may play differently as you mentioned .
lets see

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #385,444
  • Feb 13, 2011 8:00am Feb 13, 2011 8:00am
I am sure malc will reply. In the mean time let me try to take a stab at this. What you are saying is true, in part. The price moves based on supply/demand, regardless of how we see that on our charts. Some use s/r, PA, VSA, etc. etc. The point is this. There is ALWAYS demand in the marketplace. What makes prices move up/down is the amount of supply. This is what the smart money manipulate. So, if the price is falling, it means a lot of supply for that side of the pair. How do one stop that drop? By drying up the supply, and that's done by buying into a fall. What a lot of people miss is the spread of that particular bar we are discussing. If the bar is down, but it closes in the middle or higher it means there was more buying than selling, and yes on a DOWN bar. So what happens, the herd is selling but the smart money is buying and so stopping the drop. Now, the supply of money is dried and demand kicks in. Less euro means now the price is going up. So now the herd noticed that and start buying because the price is going up now. What does the smart money do? They sell on the way up, holdings they acquired at a lower price. Ultimately, the market is being flooded, and the process repeats .
Not sure if I captured this part of the equation correctly, malc might have more to add.
Quoting infinitus
I can not understand that you try to make the point by stating, that volume on a down bar means buying
  • #385,445
  • Feb 13, 2011 8:11am Feb 13, 2011 8:11am
Quoting Magix
Gap down?

We closed at 5m support...now, I am aware that if it isn't a hulls moving average, this might not be altogether easy for you to recognize, but we are there...3 resistance zones above us, not including the weekly rejection line....

I have read through your charts and analysis over the last couple of pages and would simply state, that if one wanted to add ambiguity to trading, throwing volume onto your charts would be a FANTASTIC way of doing this....
Hi Magix,

I am completely with you. My EW and Fib analyses supports your case totally.

Have a nice Sunday,

Markus
  • #385,446
  • Feb 13, 2011 8:12am Feb 13, 2011 8:12am
Quoting spivvster
can anyone please tell me a good place to read up on vsa???? I solely trade with trendlines and ma's but feel that eliminating the ma's and using vsa instead would be stellar. Can anyone please direct me????????????????
Malc's thread is good, TradersLab also has a number of good threads covering VSA...

Be wary of listening to nay sayers who don't actually understand the mechanics of VSA and how it can be applied to Spot FX (either through the use of Futures volume or tick volume)...

Also MAs and VSA can be used together, they are not mutually exclusive...
  • #385,447
  • Feb 13, 2011 8:16am Feb 13, 2011 8:16am
Quoting infinitus
When everyone and his dog was bearish on USD whom do you expect to sell USD more. At those extreme sentiment levels people are fully invested in their believe-system. At 7% USD bulls or 93% bears there was literally no one left to sell USD.

hit the nail right on the head... its pretty obvious the value of the euro at 1.38 upwards is way too expensive and charts tell us people don't want to buy at this price... fundamentally it can keep going higher but technically we are not seeing this.

at this stage fundamentals aren't good for either economy.... the likes of germany is being brought down by its euro partners...

technically - usd is cheap to buy and euro is expensive to sell... same goes for AUD... people will buy when they are cheap again - which isn't now...

euro still over valued until it hits 1.21...
  • #385,448
  • Feb 13, 2011 8:33am Feb 13, 2011 8:33am
Quoting jaylovin
hit the nail right on the head... its pretty obvious the value of the euro at 1.38 upwards is way too expensive and charts tell us people don't want to buy at this price... fundamentally it can keep going higher but technically we are not seeing this....
Couldnt agree with you more....
  • #385,449
  • Edited 9:01am Feb 13, 2011 8:34am | Edited 9:01am
GMMA (sure it's a single indicator in isolation) is signalling that Thur's & Fri's downtrend may well be in the process of turning over, spent all Friday afternoon testing the low and finding support, with just a 10 pip over shoot which coincided with the Mubarak announcement...

IMO short term shorts should at least be tightening stops...

Edit: admittedly this is based on an m5 tf which you could argue is subject to market noise and the rally occurred right into the retail weekly close...

In going to a much longer tf h4, it now becomes apparent that the longer term picture is one in which we now see significant downside risk based on GMMA...
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  • #385,450
  • Feb 13, 2011 8:48am Feb 13, 2011 8:48am
Quoting infinitus
Hi Malcolmb,

I do not get your logic lately. I have issues with volume at Forex. But even when we assume, that we can talk about volume when in-fact we talk more about frequency, I can not understand that you try to make the point by stating, that volume on a down bar means buying (or better: buying pressure). In-fact, dropping prices at high volume means, that there are more sellers (oversupply leads to dropping prices). If the demand would outpace the supply the bid would go up, pip for pip.

Forelast Friday we had only 7% USD bulls, this Friday...
Hi markus i agree on your point and i see it like this:when majority went shorting when we reached 1.29 buyers came in and bought all the sells till 1.38 at that point we reached 93% sellers and no new buyers who would be able to push prices,at this point the down fall starts,and people start to reorganize their positions and slowly the buyers equal out to the sellers again until new direction is formed again.Am i right or is it different ?
  • #385,451
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:03am Feb 13, 2011 9:03am
Quoting FibbinArchie
Also MAs and VSA can be used together, they are not mutually exclusive...


Completely agree...

There are a few MAs and indicators that I work with, and even though volume isn't one of them, cherry picking trades when all are in confirmation increases the likelihood of consistent wins and more profitable trades.

Well said.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #385,452
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:08am Feb 13, 2011 9:08am
Quoting Magix


Completely agree...

There are a few MAs and indicators that I work with, and even though volume isn't one of them, cherry picking trades when all are in confirmation increases the likelihood of consistent wins and more profitable trades.

Well said.
Yeah Magix, it's all about defining what constitutes your edge and then only entering when the conditions that define your edge are in existence.
  • #385,453
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:24am Feb 13, 2011 9:24am
Quoting fontu
Thanks Markus , yeah I know it but do you agree with with all these functions of wave 3 ( previous charts ) right now in eu , even with 1000 pips movement there still remain doubt about the correct situation .If any wrong it may totally change like as seen in monthly /weekly , huge up & in a serious mofu.3rd wave down is ok then all ok ,failure or not ultimately . if not, go huge up above all tops ,bull flag & cup & handle there to continue bull . the controversy remain as open option to me since 2008 & post many many times before but nobody discuss...
Hi Fontu,

hope you enjoy your Sunday.

Again you are right. The situation with eurusd is by far not as clear as one would like to see. Nearly all impulsive moves since the top at 1.42x can be counted as corrective too.

There is constantly a good reason for doubt.

A good supporting help is the use of sentiment data, which fairly support my actual counts so far.

If certain levels break to the upside, we will be set in a completely different situation. That does not necessarily mean the loss of the bearish case, not at all, but it can mean that things for EUR are not as bad as we assume right now.

I think the main question is now if we get the very bearish move (where we are in a primary 3 of a cycle 3) or a lesser bearish view where we are in a large triangle for the next years where we bounce (roughly) to around 1.2x and the impulse up.

But both mean the same. Main direction is down. The latter case would give us room to climb a little bit more. For this case to come true we would need to see a fast drop in USD bears/Eur bulls to recharge for a new EUR bull momentum.

EW is a play with probabilities. So we have to stay flexible. I only look for the highest probability and the second best. There are constantly others and at some times I/we get taught a good lesson for not seeing the forest for the trees LOL

But even us EW'er should be allowed to not have the holy grail or the crystal ball (since we would be filthy rich). :-)

Fact for now lies in sentiment data:

last weeks USD bulls 7%, this weeks USD bulls 15%

You do not start a EUR bull run at those extreme USD bearish levels. You start a USD bull run at those levels. So I thing, that it is safe to assume (safe???), that chances are very high that we resume the Euro decline next week. The recent correction may not be over at all since it was short in time. Maybe we will see a little more bouncing between 35x and 36x.

As for your question regarding AO and RSI.

They can not predict the next waves, but they can give a good judgement about posibillity.

Normally a wave 3 has the lowest/highest readings, with an RSI at lowest highest readings. The following wave 4 will reach in over 90% of the cases the zero territory on AO, and the following 5th wave give fairly lower readings in AO and RSI than the wave 3 did.

When, for example, you think, that prices have just produced a wave 3 and 4 (AO in extreme position and then back to the zero line) and the next wave produces even higher/lower readings in AO then you have to correct your counts.

Since waves are fractal, I use this indicators on all TF's simultaneously (5, 15, 60, 240, daily). Sometimes, when I have not enough bars to analyze (remember: you need to have between 100-150) I even switch back to 1, 2 or 3min TF. The more you do it the better you can "sense" the waves. The tricky part comes with wave extensions. But it is fun.

I do it in this way:

First I look for that TF, that captures the required 100-150 bars for the move wich is analyzed.

I try to identify the 3, the 4 and the 5

Then I switch to the next lower TF,s and look, if I am able to identify the subwave 3 of the 3 (for confirmation; the 3 of the 3 should have on the lower TF the highest/lowest readings on AO and RSI).

Divergences in RSI, MACD, Stoch, CCI and others are early indications of a wave 5 since momentum is fading.

For further information take a look here or ask me again.

http://www.tradingfives.com/articles...oscillator.htm

http://www.esignalcentral.com/univer...Manual_ch7.pdf
  • #385,454
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:29am Feb 13, 2011 9:29am
Quoting Magix


Completely agree...

There are a few MAs and indicators that I work with, and even though volume isn't one of them, cherry picking trades when all are in confirmation increases the likelihood of consistent wins and more profitable trades.

Well said.

lol bro ma's sucks the MF ema200 did not break on weekly and close almost there , looking at m5 we might visit 1440 and it should be the top of any up move , in the other hand 5 9 12 crossing the 20 and 200 to

i might be wrong but i think we will see 3400's befor we see the 3600's
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  • #385,455
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:37am Feb 13, 2011 9:37am
Quoting kill56
lol bro ma's sucks the MF ema200 did not break on weekly and close almost there , looking at m5 we might visit 1440 and it should be the top of any up move , in the other hand 5 9 12 crossing the 20 and 200 to

i might be wrong but i think we will see 3400's befor we see the 3600's
Heya Kill, I think at the moment it's in the balance (isn't it always??) depends on if this minor correction follows through into a more significant up move, like I said, the data isn't very reliable since the rally occurred right into the weekly close... All told, looks to be still in longer term consolidation, unless we make a sustained break below 3500...
  • #385,456
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:41am Feb 13, 2011 9:41am
Quoting spivvster
............ eliminating the ma's and using vsa instead would be stellar..........
Yes do it MA's are a total waste of time and energy - so VSA can't hurt. Although I look at volume per se with other confirming factors and not the typical VSA kinda way.

Tea leaves are better than MA's,
  • #385,457
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:42am Feb 13, 2011 9:42am
Quoting kill56
lol bro ma's sucks the MF ema200 did not break on weekly and close almost there , looking at m5 we might visit 1440 and it should be the top of any up move , in the other hand 5 9 12 crossing the 20 and 200 to

i might be wrong but i think we will see 3400's befor we see the 3600's
I still think we will see the daily 200EMA killer, it's just a matter of when it gets there and what is going to happen when it does...will it hold or will it fold?

Checking out a few of the tfs and working off the H4, I see a possible play range and some action that resembles what I got on the chart.

Really, until the chart is printed, all we got is a reasonable forecast...

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #385,458
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:43am Feb 13, 2011 9:43am
Quoting jaylovin
@ infinitus...

question... how did you see the retracement to 1.3558 coming?? attached is a 5m implulse to the upside... fibs are closely respected on most levels... if my abc is correct - 1.3558 is the top for now... but X may spike up to test 1.3580?

thanks for any help
Hi Jaylovin,

I think that at the time I wrote that we had finished wave A up and I did a little research with my fib charts and fib extensions, and the highest probability for a proposed ABC flat correction was around that level. Since the A leg was not an impulse but an zigzack, it was only possible to correct as an ABC-flat (or a complex WXY). Since the B-leg of a flat normaly runs beyond the starting point of wave A it was relatively easy to figure out where wave C might end.

But hey, besides all math, fib and EW I had a lot of luck with my calls on Friday. Market did exactly that what I did call for (inclusively the fake break of 3504). I wish I would always be such right LOL
  • #385,459
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:45am Feb 13, 2011 9:45am
Quoting SunTrader
Yes do it MA's are a total waste of time and energy.

Tea leaves are better than MA's,


Amusing to be sure, but me thinks you might be a touch confused on how to work with them.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #385,460
  • Feb 13, 2011 9:45am Feb 13, 2011 9:45am
Quoting Magix
I still think we will see the daily 200EMA killer, it's just a matter of when it gets there and what is going to happen when it does...will it hold or will it fold?

Checking out a few of the tfs and working off the H4, I see a possible play range and some action that resembles what I got on the chart.

Really, until the chart is printed, all we got is a reasonable forecast...

Can't really argue with your stochastics analysis after last weeks performance, two for two??
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