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  • #385,361
  • Feb 12, 2011 6:01pm Feb 12, 2011 6:01pm
discount before gu interest rates

down bar wide spread , ultra high volume

PROS BUY ON DOWN BARS ... 100 pip profit next 3 hours

background also served us well on this as we could see buyers coming in on all down moves in london

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Quoting malcolmb14
pros buy on down bars ....

IF you want to buy a house that is 400 k do you offer 450 k ? or do you want to buy it for 370 k? of course you want to buy it at 370 k...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #385,362
  • Feb 12, 2011 6:02pm Feb 12, 2011 6:02pm
And look at where the price of BP is today, still underwater like its P.O.S. well.
  • #385,363
  • Feb 12, 2011 6:03pm Feb 12, 2011 6:03pm
cia do not take weekend off

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/alg...sts-2011-02-12
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #385,364
  • Feb 12, 2011 6:32pm Feb 12, 2011 6:32pm
Malcolm, I completely get where you're coming from and what you're trying to say. Let's think more in terms of Accumulation, Distribution and the Band Wagon Theory. Large Smart people accumulate just before a down move is complete and while there's still stupid sellers to provide liquidity, and Distribute just before an up move has completed and while there's still dumb money to buy.
I know it is hard to explain, but I can see you are trying and you know your stuff. Never doubt your strategy if it works.
Much Respect
  • #385,365
  • Feb 12, 2011 6:45pm Feb 12, 2011 6:45pm
Quoting cloggie
Not here I don't, that's why the only buddy on my buddy list is myself.
Cloggie!
Dont be like that buddy, I am your friend, feel the Love
  • #385,366
  • Feb 12, 2011 6:58pm Feb 12, 2011 6:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
gap down in asia Monday even more lovely.
Gap down?

We closed at 5m support...now, I am aware that if it isn't a hulls moving average, this might not be altogether easy for you to recognize, but we are there...3 resistance zones above us, not including the weekly rejection line....

I have read through your charts and analysis over the last couple of pages and would simply state, that if one wanted to add ambiguity to trading, throwing volume onto your charts would be a FANTASTIC way of doing this. Using volume as a sole indicator is a COMPLETE waste of time, which I guess is why you have added a hulls moving average for some recognition of trend.

Seeing a large volume down bar, how exactly are you to know how much more volume will follow. Ditto on the upside.

Lengthening the time frame on the chart probably adds even more confusion, appreciating global events, the slower summer trading and the shortened days during the Christmas season...

Again, VSA as applied to the stock market, having an understanding of volumes and outstanding floats as well as combining this with a candlestick analysis seems a lot more viable and reasonable, or if one was to oh, say, use it as an example of WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED, it seems to do very well as well...

There is no doubt in my mind that we will see some buying next week, but there is no doubt in my mind that we are going to see some selling as well, and given the current USDX chart, I am leaning towards still having a Bearish Bias.

Anyways...I never took a gamble on a hold over the weekend, really didn't see much need, but if I was to have a bet on how market opens, or "The GAP", I would say we gap up if anything and carry support to any of the 3 zones on the chart over the first 24 hours of market. From there, strong rejection at any one of them lines, or their respective time frames as they adjust to price movement, will be a MASS EXODUS. This area has been accumulated for 3 weeks selling off every spike, with all dogs in the fight and the holidays behind us, it's time to get serious about direction...

If at anytime you see me chime the word TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR into this house, it would be a really good idea to cut the losses on your pro averaged on the way down positions and save your account from a serious bloodbath.

Enjoy the weekend.

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #385,367
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:03pm Feb 12, 2011 7:03pm
Quoting malcolmb14
pros buy on down bars ....

IF you want to buy a house that is 400 k do you offer 450 k ? or do you want to buy it for 370 k? of course you want to buy it at 370 k...
Yes, but I assume you have a level where you absolutely get out and reverses, right? He thought you used the average down strategy hoping it would reverse as Cloggie and I talked about just now.

However..
I use volume in stock trading every day (I don't trade stocks intra) but I observe the market every day and I look at the volume and who the buyer/seller is, I know which brokers who does the funky selloff things and so forth. And it works very well...

But in Fx I don't see volume or a tick counter more helpful than a normal RSI, I would even say an RSI is more helpful knowing where the supply $ demand is...

Just curios...
  • #385,368
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:11pm Feb 12, 2011 7:11pm
Hello again, good time to be looking for a short in EUR/USD on any rally soon after the opening - stops above 3680, target 1 2870, target 2 2540, target 3 1920. Relevant time horizon for position - weekly. Expected moment of reaching target 3 - 2-3 months. Decent risk reward, recommended position size medium.

P.S. Also expecting to see a retest of the 1.40 level in cable some time this year, probably in the first 6 months.
  • #385,369
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:12pm Feb 12, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting Magix
Seeing a large volume down bar, how exactly are you to know how much more volume will follow. Ditto on the upside.
You would be looking for a wide spread down bar closing off of its lows on volume that is ultra high (compared to the previous bars). This isn't an entry, so much as strength/weakness.

At areas of supply/demand (however you choose to define them) you can look for strength/weakness, and the first signs of strength/weakness are usually the climactic bars we've been discussing.

Trading with VSA after seeing signs of strength/weakness like the climactic bars you can look for other kinds of SOS/SOW. After you've seen enough of this, provided the strength/weakness is at a logical supply/demand area, it is reasonable to look for entries. Lots of VSAers look for no demands and no supply bars in particular (bars of which you would short the break of the low)
  • #385,370
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:27pm Feb 12, 2011 7:27pm
As far as volume goes, how does one measure volume in FX when there is no central bank or exchange as such for this to be measured against ie: where is the data for this so called volume coming from for the indicator to measure this as a whole in the FX market.

It is not possible ?

This is why in my opinion I think volume is not worth looking at in FX markets.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #385,371
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:31pm Feb 12, 2011 7:31pm
Quoting frankkn
You would be looking for a wide spread down bar closing off of its lows on volume that is ultra high (compared to the previous bars)....
Dude, just because I question the use of volume, doesn't mean I have no comprehension of trading...

But, lets use your words and a chart that Mal posted that I have aptly named ambiguity for a sample...

1. Ultra High Volume
2. Signs of weakness
3. Possible Entry on weakness
4. Possible Entry on weakness
5. Reffering to the Trend line that would have roasted a short position on this chart.
6. Showing how price is falling like rain which goes along with
7. Lowest volume bars on the chart.

So, using this as an example, you are either in assumption selling on massive volume at the top, which may have profited on a shorter term basis, but might have stopped you out on the buy back, or you sold into weakness on points 3 and 4 and got your ass handed to you buy a price that exceeded the high on the Ultra High Volume Candle.

Showing weak volume and price dropping, you would what, hold onto this bitch as it went against you? or as it bottomed out in box #6 showing a little more volume, would you have averaged down a losing position on longs...

Either way, you are assuming the trend by selling into volume spikes not knowing how much volume or price reaction is following, or you are entering on weakness assuming a reversal...

The PSARs on the chart seem to be a little more predictive in this whole chart, but WTF does that have to do with Volume, or Spread or Candlestick analysis?

Bottom line, something I strongly advocate, if price is going up, buy, if price is going down, sell...following the trend will infinitely make more sense then assumption based on What you think the pros might be doing.

Really, think about it, in terms of a cable chart, Volume spike down when London closes, good chance of reversal, but I don't need volume to show me this, I need a clock...

Last weekend I posted charts for an idea of the tradeable range. When VSA'ers headed by brother Mal were buying 3640, I was waiting to exit my longs and managed to hammer in the shorts 2 pips from top, taking exit 6 pips from bottom...not once was I even tempted to add volume to my chart.

But hey, if ya find a nugget of value and can churn a buck doing it, rock on my brother, rock on!



Here's the link.
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #385,372
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:39pm Feb 12, 2011 7:39pm
Quote
doesn't mean I have no comprehension of trading...

Sorry didn't want to come across disrespectfully, just was trying to respond to your question with what I felt was an honest answer.
Quote
But hey, if ya find a nugget of value and can churn a buck doing it, rock on my brother, rock on!

You too man
  • #385,373
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:45pm Feb 12, 2011 7:45pm
Quoting DarkWolF
As far as volume goes, how does one measure volume in FX when there is no central bank or exchange as such for this to be measured against ie: where is the data for this so called volume coming from for the indicator to measure this as a whole in the FX market........
Here we go again.

There is no price either.

It is all bid/ask that you see on your chart so using this data as a proxy for price is good enough to also use it for volume (for me anyway).
  • #385,374
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:45pm Feb 12, 2011 7:45pm
Quoting malcolmb14
discount before gu interest rates

down bar wide spread , ultra high volume

PROS BUY ON DOWN BARS ... 100 pip profit next 3 hours

background also served us well on this as we could see buyers coming in on all down moves in london

Attachment

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agreed
  • #385,375
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:48pm Feb 12, 2011 7:48pm
To show what I look for I've labeled the chart with purple lines and abcd.

A) Selling
B) No demand, you can short the break of the low here
C) More selling
D) No demand, you can short the break of the low here

This is just what I look for at areas I've deemed important in the direction of a larger time frame trend. If that chart is 15m I'd trade with the 4h trend defined by the 21 hull. I'd look for 2:1 if it's with the weekly hull trend and 1:1 if against.

Again, I'm not lecturing you on how to trade, so much as just trying to show my perspective and I'm completely open to any constructive criticism

Edit:

Looking back d isn't a no demand, so much as a hidden low volume up thrust but essentially I would consider it to mean a lack in buying interest
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  • #385,376
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:49pm Feb 12, 2011 7:49pm
Quoting frankkn
Sorry didn't want to come across disrespectfully, just was trying to respond to your question with what I felt was an honest answer.
NO, No, no....

This is the ongoing Tastes Great, Less Filling convo that floods the various active trading threads, and just because I didn't agree with ya, doesn't mean I am offended...

I congratulate you on the information you have posted with an understanding and as an active user of VSA.

All relevant trade talk is all good in my books friend...we don't even have to agree on it.

Me n Mal and a couple others chat via skype on a not as regular basis, and more of what I like to do is rib him...and in here, like to stimulate the idea of free flow of ideas and charting styles.

It's all in the name of having fun and making money...if FF would just throw a pr0n section into the lobby, might even be less of the trade style bickering...

You are all good in my books man...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #385,377
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:50pm Feb 12, 2011 7:50pm
Quoting Magix

You are all good in my books man...

Thanks, means a lot!
  • #385,378
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:52pm Feb 12, 2011 7:52pm
Quoting SunTrader
Here we go again.
There is no price either.


The real question is, if there is no volume, and no price, is there enough tinfoil to make us all new hats for Monday open?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #385,379
  • Feb 12, 2011 7:58pm Feb 12, 2011 7:58pm
Quoting frankkn
To show what I look for I've labeled the chart with purple lines and abcd.

A) Selling
B) No demand, you can short the break of the low here
C) More selling
D) No demand, you can short the break of the low here

This is just what I look for at areas I've deemed important in the direction of a larger time frame trend. If that chart is 15m I'd trade with the 4h trend defined by the 21 hull....


This is the kind of reply I was looking to prompt...

Very well done sir...

Hats off!

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #385,380
  • Feb 12, 2011 8:00pm Feb 12, 2011 8:00pm
Quoting cloggie
Not here I don't, that's why the only buddy on my buddy list is myself.

Narcissistic prick...................

Just kidding,,,,,,, well maybe

You never did (or I missed it) answered the "what the hell is a Muppet" question.

I've looked online and can't find anything to join. Is it so exclusive that I can't find a way to join, or do I need to look under another name (shmuck- shmoe-fool- retard), all good groups and worthy of my membership fees, but I need to know witch is associated with the muppet organisation.
I just need a little help. Thank you so much in advance.
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