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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #22,301
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:03am Feb 11, 2011 5:03am
Quoting realjumper
Interesting analysis fwiw....'USDJPY near an Important Crossroad' dailyfx.com
I agree that we are coming up to big resistance, as FXCM stated, there will be stops above this area (a lot).
The three main resistance areas I'm looking at are 83.70/84.50/just above 85.00.
It would be nice to knock these down like dominos lol.

Daily
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  • #22,302
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:05am Feb 11, 2011 5:05am
Quoting realjumper
Interesting analysis fwiw....'USDJPY near an Important Crossroad' dailyfx.com
Thanks for the link, might set a buy limit at 83.85 UJ lagging behind too much right now so if it moves it could be fast.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,303
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:13am Feb 11, 2011 5:13am
fosking, USD-Bear

I don't put a hell of a lot of weight into professional anaysis, but this guy, and another from FXCM, Joel Kruger, are often proved to be correct.....but, as always, you apply your own analysis, which I know you do.

I might leave this pair alone today....being Friday etc, and see what it's looking like next week. I missed out on eu because I exited at +1, but I don't regret doing that because the PA today is a bit too strange for me. I'll watch, like Noda, but my trading might be done for the week unless I see something I like
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,304
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:20am Feb 11, 2011 5:20am
Quoting realjumper
fosking, USD-Bear

I don't put a hell of a lot of weight into professional anaysis, but this guy, ..

Joel Kruger
I don't either, in fact if i do ignore ( which I don't because I do read them) I just hate the way they word their analysis. They allways leave themselves room to be correct no matter if it goes up and down,

Joel Kruger?

This guy seems pretty good.
  • #22,305
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:21am Feb 11, 2011 5:21am
Quoting realjumper
fosking, USD-Bear

I don't put a hell of a lot of weight into professional anaysis, but this guy, and another from FXCM, Joel Kruger, are often proved to be correct.....but, as always, you apply your own analysis, which I know you do.

I might leave this pair alone today....being Friday etc, and see what it's looking like next week. I missed out on eu because I exited at +1, but I don't regret doing that because the PA today is a bit too strange for me. I'll watch, like Noda, but my trading might be done...
Yes, tempting to close up but too exciting atm, I feel it's accumulating all the sell orders atm, like to see how it ends
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,306
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:23am Feb 11, 2011 5:23am
Quoting realjumper
I don't put a hell of a lot of weight into professional anaysis, but this guy, and another from FXCM, Joel Kruger, are often proved to be correct......
I sometimes read Joel Krugers analysis and also sometimes John kicklighters too (I think thats his name). They normally do some good articles between them.
  • #22,307
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:31am Feb 11, 2011 5:31am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes, tempting to close up but too exciting atm, I feel it's accumulating all the sell orders atm, like to see how it ends
Not too exciting for me.....too many late nights this week I think....it was 4.30am before I went to sleep yesterday!! It's 12.30am now and my eyeballs need a rest I think. I might be back for USA open though. If not, good luck guys
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #22,308
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:33am Feb 11, 2011 5:33am
Weekend Gaps?

Usually the USD/JPY does not make much of a gap.

70% of the time (6 months data ) it gaps down.

Out of the 30% of the time it gaps upward I could not even make a play on one single one of them ---17 PIP upward gap was the greatest..

The gaps to the downside are not all that spectacular either but at lest there are some playable ones. Hardly either any draw down either.
  • #22,309
  • Feb 11, 2011 5:44am Feb 11, 2011 5:44am
EU MID-SESSION UPDATE

Following on from yesterday, with President Mubarak of Egypt agreeing to transfer power to his vice-president but refusing to immediately step down, markets continued to track the ongoing political situation in Egypt, which also saw WTI crude futures trade in positive territory in early European session. However, later in the session, the Egyptian military issued a statement guaranteeing changes to the constitution and to carry out a free and fair election, which weighed upon WTI, paring most of the earlier gains. In the forex market, strength in the USD-index weighed upon major pairs including EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with EUR/USD coming under further pressure as some market players continued to focus on debt concerns in the Eurozone, especially Portugal. GBP/USD did move up around 15 pips following higher than expected PPI data from the UK, however comments from UK’s ONS that the impact of an 8% annual rise in UK’s construction output will have a minimal upward impact on Q4 GDP continued to pressure GBP/USD triggering stops through 1.6000 level, triggering stops on the descent. Meanwhile, equity markets traded lower, with particular weakness seen in the technology sector, weighed upon by more than 10% fall in Nokia shares after the company announced major restructuring plans.

Moving forward, markets look ahead to the trade balance and preliminary University of Michigan confidence data from the US, allied with another Fed’s Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase operation in the maturity range of Aug’16-Jan’18, with a purchase target of USD 6-8bln.

Source: RANsquawk
  • #22,310
  • Feb 11, 2011 10:06am Feb 11, 2011 10:06am
Egypt's VP says Mubarak has stepped down - State TV
GEOPOLITICAL
Source: RTRS
  • #22,311
  • Feb 11, 2011 10:29am Feb 11, 2011 10:29am
I have been out all day.
just came back and my trades are still the same ucd/chf went up usd/jpy the same as when I left.
should I close or not?
  • #22,312
  • Feb 11, 2011 10:29am Feb 11, 2011 10:29am
Quoting fosking
Egypt's VP says Mubarak has stepped down - State TV
GEOPOLITICAL
Source: RTRS
ah, thanks just wondered why gold was so volatile last hours, that must be it, nice scalping material
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,313
  • Feb 11, 2011 10:36am Feb 11, 2011 10:36am
It's a shame we are at the end of the trading week.
Just bounced of the weekly R2 targeting the highs on the news about Mubarak.
The news will hopefully give a leg up to break resistance, but we may have to wait until Monday.

M5
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  • #22,314
  • Feb 11, 2011 11:55am Feb 11, 2011 11:55am
Feels like I'm fighting against every Carry Trader' in the world.


Greedy Motherf'ing/Demon Hedgefunds!

I'll take this one on the chin though.
  • #22,315
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:21pm Feb 11, 2011 12:21pm
Quoting Warwick
Feels like I'm fighting against every Carry Trader' in the world.


Greedy Motherf'ing/Demon Hedgefunds!

I'll take this one on the chin though.
Fights over for me, wish everyone a nice weekend........
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,316
  • Feb 11, 2011 12:27pm Feb 11, 2011 12:27pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Fights over for me, wish everyone a nice weekend........
Same to you... but man this greed is killing me slowly. The Ponzi Scheme Index (DJIA) makes new highs everyday, XAU/XAG refuses to die, and dont get me started on the carry trade pairs, zero risk trades nowadays. This is a brutal environment for a perma-bear. Everything wants to go up up up, no one's fearful of anything. These green candles are making me sick.
  • #22,317
  • Feb 11, 2011 1:08pm Feb 11, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting Warwick
Same to you... but man this greed is killing me slowly. The Ponzi Scheme Index (DJIA) makes new highs everyday, XAU/XAG refuses to die, and dont get me started on the carry trade pairs, zero risk trades nowadays. This is a brutal environment for a perma-bear. Everything wants to go up up up, no one's fearful of anything. These green candles are making me sick.
I feel your pain. Nothing lasts for ever.... You will get your bloody red candles sometime....

Patience! The world will keep turning around even when half the world goes crazy.
this pig cannot be slaughtered for ever... or can it?
  • #22,318
  • Feb 11, 2011 1:09pm Feb 11, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Fights over for me, wish everyone a nice weekend........
Have a good weekend mate, catch you on Monday!
  • #22,319
  • Feb 11, 2011 1:10pm Feb 11, 2011 1:10pm
Quoting Warwick
Same to you... but man this greed is killing me slowly. The Ponzi Scheme Index (DJIA) makes new highs everyday, XAU/XAG refuses to die, and dont get me started on the carry trade pairs, zero risk trades nowadays. This is a brutal environment for a perma-bear. Everything wants to go up up up, no one's fearful of anything. These green candles are making me sick.
Watch out Warwick,
there are no zero risk trades.
There are periods of success which make you think you are great and wise.
There are periods of disaster which make you think you are dumb and foolish.
Try to handle all those periods and you are wise
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #22,320
  • Feb 11, 2011 1:37pm Feb 11, 2011 1:37pm
Quoting Warwick
Everything wants to go up up up, no one's fearful of anything.
You want to be greedy when others are fearful, and you want to be fearful when others are greedy. - Warren Buffett

It's saved my arse a few times.
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